Jakarta – After two years of antigovernment riots and economic turmoil, Indonesia's technology gurus thought it best to keep the public in the dark about possible widespread failures from the Y2K computer bug.
"It's a touchy issue," says Widijanto Nugroho, a computer scientist and top government Y2K adviser. "If the government says, for example, the banks aren't ready, people will rush the banks. If we don't say anything, it's probably better for the moment." So Indonesia's leaders have opted to keep the world's fourth most populous nation uninformed.
Newspapers and TV shows barely mention the potential fallout of the computer glitch. Cabinet ministers are on orders not to talk about it.
"Here, less than 20% of the people know about Y2K," Djamhari Sirat, head of Indonesia's national Y2K task force, said of this archipelago nation of 210 million. "We don't think anyone needs to know about Y2K except the government, the police and the military." As most of Southeast Asia girds for turn-of-the-century millennium bug trouble, experts fear the hardest-hit nation will be Indonesia – where they say neither computers nor the public are adequately prepared.
Varying degrees of readiness
With only a few more weeks until the moment of reckoning, nations in the Southeast Asian region appear to be at varying degrees of Y2K readiness. Most say they moved fast to modify their computers after setbacks from two years of financial collapse. And most have sounded a public alarm.
In the Philippines, citizens have been advised to prepare for the rollover to 2000 "like a typhoon is coming," by stockpiling five days worth of canned goods, cash and candles.
In Singapore, considered among the world's best-prepared nations, the government has mass-mailed a "Y2K Guide" to all 950,000 homes that explains how to debug personal computers, VCRs and other appliances.
Malaysia, which secured a $100 million World Bank loan earlier this year to help pay for computer fixes, has assured its citizens the military and police will deal with any threats to public safety or national security.
In Indonesia, the strategy is different: No national awareness campaign and no talk of contingency plans. Talking to a random sampling of three dozen people in Jakarta's traditional markets and upscale shopping malls found most couldn't care less about the millennium bug.
"Only rich people use computers; I'll be fine," said Andy Setiawan, 33, owner of a small TV shop who had never heard of the Y2K bug – computers being programmed to express years in just two digits – so 2000 could be misinterpreted as 1900, causing crashes and lost data.
A. Syafik, a 23-year-old accountant, said that if it was something to be concerned about, the government would warn people. "They aren't paying attention to it, why should I?" Indonesia not Y2K compliant
Indonesian officials insist critical computer systems will be ready and don't expect major disruptions. But they offer no independent verification and analysts think otherwise.
"They aren't going to be Y2K compliant, and my concern is that the people aren't going to know what to do when problems occur," said K.C. Toh, who advises the government on Y2K matters.
Bruce Gale, a regional manager at Political & Economic Risk Consultancy, also is worried. "Indonesian banks certainly haven't had any money to put into Y2K readiness plans. They're spending their money on pure survival. The other area of concern is airports." Indonesia sits prominently on nearly every international danger list.
Lawrence Gershwin, the CIA's chief Y2K analyst, lists it with Russia, Ukraine and China among nations "most likely to experience significant Y2K-related failures." He said in October that such failures could provoke major disturbances, lead to martial law and require huge humanitarian relief efforts.
Although large areas of Indonesia aren't dependent on computers, experts say that if power and telephones fail, the repercussions could be serious.
Concerns over power, Telekom
Regional Y2K consultants and diplomats voice concerns about Indonesia's financially strapped state-owned power company, Perusahaan Listrik Negara, and Telekom, the main telephone service provider.
Telekom, which was supposed to be Y2K compliant months ago, raised eyebrows after pushing its deadline back to December. "We have to be prepared for the fact that there will be a deterioration in the telecommunications service," said Ichyar Musa, founder of an independent watchdog group called Indonesian Y2K Watch.
Predicting where Y2K failures will strike, and how severe they will be, is nearly impossible. Most of the region's computer-dependent sectors, such as airlines and banks, began preparations several years ago and analysts think they will be best prepared.
Even so, many Southeast Asian countries have declared national holidays on December 31 as an extra precaution. They have also printed extra money to guard against bank runs.
Some countries will keep banks and businesses shut January 3, when Jakarta's stock exchange will be closed for computer system testing. In Thailand and the Philippines, bureaucrats have been banned from leaving town on New Year's Eve and ordered to stay at their posts.
Malaysia, which touts itself as the Silicon Valley of Southeast Asia, has enlisted a high-powered public relations firm to spin its message on New Year's Eve from a newly built, high-tech emergency command center. Meanwhile, top officials will make live around-the-clock telecasts.
Many of the region's airlines have reduced flying schedules or plan to keep aircraft grounded during the crucial hour. Although all report Y2K compliance, the state carriers of Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines and other airlines have canceled flights that straddle midnight as an extra safety measure.
The International Civil Aviation Organization, a UN agency, has put into place a regional contingency plan decreasing the number of air traffic routes during the rollover to limit the risk of mid-air collision. It also ordered fewer flights to ensure a greater distance between planes in the sky. The contingency plan will take effect four hours before midnight local time in each country and last several days.
"We've treated this as a predictable potential emergency," said Ross Hamory, director of Asia-Pacific operations for the US Federal Aviation Administration. "If there's a problem, it isn't going to be in the airplanes. The issue is really going to be does power go out on the ground, will phones work, and how do we deal with those kinds of interruptions?" said Hamory. "And these are things that only the countries themselves have control over."