Susan Sim, Jakarta – The Indonesian government yesterday woke up to a confidential internal report which showed the ruling Golkar in for a crushing defeat as the Megawati Sukarnoputri-Abdurrahman Wahid juggernaut grabbed half of the 41 million ballots counted.
The sense of impending defeat was also giving momentum to Golkar reformists eager to dump presidential candidate B.J. Habibie as major opposition parties began serious talks on power-sharing arrangements in the next government.
Reformist elements in the four leading parties – including Golkar – have already met for talks on building a "core group of reformists".
This is to pre-empt any attempt by Habibie loyalists to entice their conservative wings away while Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party-Perjuangan (Struggle), or PDI-P, for short, and Mr Abdurrahman's Nation Awakening Party (PKB) are attempting to come to agreement on the shape of the next Cabinet.
The PDI-P has also begun identifying Golkar ministers, namely the economic technocrats, it might invite to join its government, various sources told The Straits Times.
A government count of 40,526,618 ballots, or 35.37 per cent of the total of 114,585,465 ballots cast on Monday, showed the PDI-P clearly in command with 13,946,021 votes, or 34.4 per cent.
The confidential report, tabulated by civil servants at polling stations throughout the country as at 5.30am yesterday, gave Golkar only 8,783,618 votes, or 21.67 per cent. Next came PKB, with 6,259,378, or 15.45 per cent.
By late afternoon, a senior government official familiar with the regional party strengths vis-a-vis the electoral structure was predicting a 40 per cent share of the 462 parliamentary seats at stake for the PDI-P. Its ally and likely coalition partner, PKB, would probably get 12 per cent of the seats.
Golkar would end up with 20 per cent, Dr Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN) 6 per cent to 7 per cent, and the remaining seats would be split among the Islamic parties, he added.
Although Habibie loyalists remain hopeful of forming a coalition with PAN and others – an idea floated yesterday in the Republika newspaper, the mouthpiece of the Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals which Dr Habibie used to chair – Golkar insiders say the non-Habibie movement was growing stronger.
"At the end of the day, most people are opportunists," said a source. "Not all of them are anti-Habibie, but when they see that he is a hopeless case, the floating group will abandon him and look for opportunities elsewhere. PDI-P could probably accommodate some Golkar people not close to Habibie."
PDI-P sources said discussions included talks on co-opting ministers like Finance Minister Bambang Subianto and National Development Planning Council chief Boediono to "give an element of continuity".
But PKB secretary-general Muhaimin Iskander said his party might be uncomfortable with those who left Golkar only because they had no choice, apart from going into opposition.
The PKB was eyeing the Justice, Education, Energy and State Secretary portfolios in a PDI-P-led government, he said, adding: "If PDI-P wins, there will be no choice for president but Ms Megawati. But we hope the vice-president will come from PKB."
Yet, Ms Megawati is not assured of the presidency come November. Apart from the opposition she would face from the small but militant radical Islamic groups, infighting within the PDI-P on whether she should wield real executive power could lead to open splits.
Said an insider: "But at the end of the day, they should realise that Megawati is a risky choice and they will all have to agree on a compromise who is not Habibie or Megawati."