Richard Borsuk, Jakarta – Early results of Indonesia's parliamentary election confirmed what was known long before the tumultuous campaign – President Suharto's Golkar party will win handily. But it was too early to tell whether the ruling party would reach or top its target of 70.02% of valid votes, and whether the results might spark a reaction from a Muslim-oriented party expecting to make gains in the poll.

With about 15% of Thursday's vote counted, Golkar had won 83.2% of 16.6 million valid votes. The Muslim-based United Development Party, known as the PPP, had 14.4%, while the Indonesian Democratic Party, or PDI, got only 2.4%. The results show, even at this early stage, that many supporters of the PDI, which gained ground in the last election in 1992, deserted the party to protest the government-aided ouster of Megawati Sukarnoputri as PDI chairwoman last June.

The percentages for Golkar and the PPP may change significantly as votes come in from more than 305,000 polling stations in the sprawling archipelago. In 1992, the first results showed Golkar winning 90% of the vote, which was also the case Thursday night. But when all the votes were counted in 1992 – many days after the poll – Golkar had 68%, down from the 73% it won in 1987. On the first night, results from Thursday's election were being reported more slowly than in 1992. The government said it expects the counting to be completed June 5, though analysts expect the shape of the outcome to become clear over the weekend.

Peaceful poll

Thursday's voting, held with security forces on alert, was peaceful throughout the country. On Wednesday, pro-independence rebels launched a series of attacks in East Timor. The Associated Press reported Thursday that between 14 and 22 people were killed in four separate attacks on Indonesian military installations and polling booths.

With only a small percentage of votes counted by late Thursday night, it wasn't possible to analyze much about the election, the sixth since the 75-year-old Mr. Suharto came to power in 1966. The one trend that was immediately clear, however, was how Ms. Megawati's ouster has crushed the PDI, which in 1992 increased its share of the vote to 15% from 11% in 1987.

It wasn't clear, though, if many who sympathize with Ms. Megawati had, like her, boycotted Thursday's vote. Statistics on what percentage of eligible voters went to the polls won't be available for some time. Also, it wasn't possible to immediately tell whether the number of Indonesians who protested against the country's controlled election system by defacing their ballots increased. At several polling stations in Jakarta, poll watchers said they believed the number of spoiled votes was higher this time than in 1992, though no hard evidence of a trend was available.

Looking for clues

Thursday's election, by itself, isn't going to result in any change in how Indonesia is governed. This poll is to fill 425 of 500 seats in the House of Representatives, a weak body that has never initiated a bill. In Indonesia's political structure, power is concentrated in the presidency. Since 1968, Mr. Suharto has been unanimously approved for six five-year terms as president by a 1,000-member assembly composed of the 500 House members and 500 appointees he has approved.

But since the election is the only one Indonesians have, some analysts see the vote as a sort of referendum on Mr. Suharto. It is also viewed as giving clues about the prospects of prominent Golkar figures. After Golkar's vote percentage dropped in 1992, its chairman, Wahono – who is also House speaker – was removed from his party post. If Golkar this time tops its target, that may boost the careers of party chairman Harmoko, who is information minister, and of Mr. Suharto's eldest daughter, Siti Hardijanti Rukmana, a deputy chairwoman who campaigned vigorously. Some Indonesians see both Mr. Harmoko and Mrs. Rukmana as possible vice presidents, assuming Mr. Suharto begins his seventh five-year term, in March.

Political analysts point out that using the parliamentary vote as a referendum on the popularity of Mr. Suharto and his government has several major flaws. Golkar is virtually guaranteed to win big, they say, because of several built-in advantages. It is the party of Indonesia's huge bureaucracy, so millions of civil servants and their families are virtually certain to vote Golkar. (Government employees vote at their offices. At one polling station where staff of state-owned PT Bank Dagang Negara voted Thursday, the results were 448 votes for Golkar, 14 for the PPP and none for the PDI.)

Critics of the Indonesian political system also say that in villages, citizens are often pressured by headmen to vote Golkar. Outside big cities, Golkar has won a large majority of the vote in each election. Among Golkar's other advantages are its ability, denied to the other parties, to have branches in villages, as well as domination of coverage on state-owned television and radio. Also, the people who oversee the election are Golkar officials. The chairman of the General Election Institute that organizes the poll is Home Affairs Minister Yogie Memed.

Human Rights Watch/Asia, a U.S. group, said in a statement issued just before the polls opened that Indonesia's electoral system is "rigged against the opposition, legally, structurally and in day-to-day practice." Sidney Jones, the group's executive director, said that "If there were any genuine outlets for expression of political and economic grievances, we almost certainly would not have seen the violence that has erupted across the country in recent months."

PPP challenge

The election campaign, which ended May 23, was marred by violence of different types, including clashes between supporters of Golkar and the PPP. Analysts say the Muslim-based party staged a more vigorous, challenging campaign than expected, which spurred Golkar to work harder to fend it off.

The PPP has strongholds in some neighborhoods in Jakarta and in the provinces of Central Java and East Java. Some PPP members and supporters have said they feel certain of winning several districts and that if they don't, they will charge that the vote counting has been manipulated to boost Golkar. "If PPP doesn't do well in Jakarta, we will show our anger," a party supporter said Thursday as he watched the vote count in a district where the PPP won 70% of the vote, compared with 45% in 1992. But he didn't say how supporters would show their anger.

As of late Thursday, Golkar had won 383,929 votes in Jakarta, or 61.9% of the total counted that far. The PPP won 36.4% and the PDI 1.7%. (In 1992, Golkar won 54% of the Jakarta vote, the PPP got 24% and the PDI 22%.)

In Central Java, an election battleground, Golkar won 74.5% of the first 3.9 million votes counted. The PPP had 23.3% and the PDI 2.2%. (In 1992, Golkar won 55% in the province, the PPP 23% and the PDI 22%.)

Nationwide, the PPP won 17% of the vote in 1992, and it set a target of 27.78% this time.