Ong Hock Chuan, Jakarta – As the campaign for the Indonesian general elections on May 27 gathers steam, it has become evident that some of the followers of Megawati Sukarnoputri, who was ousted as leader of one of the country's two opposition parties, are throwing their support behind the other opposition party.
Over the past week, that support has gained momentum and is prompting political pundits to consider whether a merger could be possible between Megawati's faction of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and the United Development Party (PPP). If such a merger were to take place, it would be the most significant development so far in what has been a lackluster campaign.
While such an alliance is not expected to wrest victory from the ruling Golkar party, it could nevertheless reduce the number of votes for Golkar and even cause it to lose parliamentary seats in Jakarta and other major cities in the Javanese heartland, such as Yogyakarta and Solo. If that were to happen, the government would likely take steps to break up the alliance, hampering further the development of an opposition in Indonesia.
Frustration is partly the reason why the supporters of Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's founding president Sukarno, and the PPP are aligning together.
Megawati's supporters were upset when the government, together with the armed forces, engineered a political coup that toppled Megawati as the PDI leader earlier this year. Shut out of the political process, Megawati's followers, composed of young urban residents disenchanted with the government, have taken to disrupting the electoral campaign of the new PDI leadership and supporting the PPP. Their tactics have been so disruptive that the PDI has not been able to mount an effective campaign.
By contrast, the PPP has been putting on a spectacular show, with thousands of young supporters flooding onto the streets in convoys of trucks, cars and motorcycles.
Even so, the PPP leadership is disgruntled by what it has called restrictive government regulations on electoral campaigning, and at one stage the Yogyakarta branch of the PPP threatened to boycott the elections altogether.
These frustrations are driving the two political parties together, even though they are supposed to be ideological rivals: The PDI is Christian-nationalist while the PPP is Muslim-based.
Last Tuesday, a significant move was taken when the PPP sent its outspoken Surakarta branch chief Mudrick Sangidoe to meet Megawati in the latter's south Jakarta residence. Mudrick said afterward that he had asked Megawati to give her blessing to the many Megawati loyalists wanting to join the PPP. He said there were about 100,000 Megawati supporters in Solo alone who would join his party if Megawati gave her approval.
Megawati has not commented on the meeting or on the possibility of an alliance. But one of her faction's leaders was quoted in the domestic press as saying that there was a "give and take" relationship between the two and that Mudrick's visit to Megawati was carried out with the approval of PPP leader Ismail Hasan Metareum.
Ismail has said that the party was confident of capturing 96 seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives with the support of Megawati's faction of the PDI. Seventy-five of the House's seats are appointed by the armed forces, the remainder are directly elected. Throughout the archipelago, supporters of both parties have began carrying red and green flags - red being the PDI's color and green representing the PPP. Others have been carrying posters and wearing T-shirts bearing a portrait of Megawati and a lone star, the symbol of the PPP.
But it remains to be seen how much of an electoral impact such an alliance would have. In the previous election in 1992, the PPP polled 17 percent of total votes cast and the PDI 15 percent while Golkar took nearly 68 percent.
Political analysts have said the votes of the Megawati loyalists, conservatively estimated to be at least half of the PDI voters, could go to the PPP, thereby improving its political stature at the expense of the PDI. It could also reduce the number of spoiled votes - many observers have been expecting more people than usual to intentionally spoil their ballots in this election as a sign of protest.
Other political pundits, however, are skeptical that this alliance could coalesce into a strong force or that it could actually draw in the ballots.
"What is driving the two sides together is a push rather than pull factor. They are getting together because of frustration," said one analyst. "This is hardly the grounds of a good marriage. They might flirt for some time, but sooner or later the realities will set in such as if there is a marriage of sorts. Who would be boss?"
The other factor contributing to the skepticism is what some observers regard as the inherent entertainment value of the opposition during an electoral campaign.
"During election campaigns, ruling parties are generally boring because they cannot criticize and berate the government," said one analyst, noting that criticism was what made for entertaining speeches. "So opposition campaigns draw a large following, but these rarely translate into votes. In the final analysis, it is the bread-and-butter issues that matter." Yet another factor, as one observer pointed out, was the age group of the majority of followers in the Megawati-PPP camp.
Most of the supporters campaigning in the streets on motorbikes and trucks are teenagers ranging in age from 10 to 20. Most are in their young teens, making them ineligible to vote.
The government has so far been nonchalant about the possibility of a Megawati-PPP tie-up. Home Affairs Minister Yogie Suardi Memet said it was better for Megawati loyalists to join the PPP than to boycott the elections. But the armed forces, which see themselves as the guardian of Indonesian political stability, is concerned. Its commander, General Feisal Tanjung, said the military was watching the latest development and would intervene if it became disruptive of the election. Analysts see this as tantamount to a warning that the army would intervene if the alliance threatened to become another political power center - as the PDI threatened to become under Megawati earlier this year.