Nandito Putra, Jakarta – The price of world oil continues to soar on the fifth day of the Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East. Quoting data from Trading Economics, the futures contract for Brent crude oil on Wednesday, March 4, reached the level of US$82 per barrel. This value increased by 1.26 percent, marking the fourth consecutive session of gains. Brent oil has already surged by more than 22 percent monthly.
This increase is triggered by the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Attacks and retaliations targeting the region's energy infrastructure have raised concerns in the global market, particularly following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is a vital shipping route for approximately 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG trade.
Iraq, one of the major producers, is reported to have cut production by around 1.5 million barrels per day, or nearly half of its output, due to storage limitations and export barriers. If exports do not recover immediately, production shutdowns could reach almost 3 million barrels per day.
According to an analysis by Trading Economics, Iran has targeted tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz, halting energy traffic for several days.
Previously, the spike in prices was temporarily halted after President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. government would ensure ships to maintain energy and trade flows, and prepare naval escorts if necessary. Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week, above market estimates.
Following the upward trend of Brent, WTI crude oil also rose to around US$75 per barrel.
Impact on Indonesia
Indonesia's economy, which still relies on energy imports, is at risk of being strained by the surge in oil prices. Chair of the National Oil and Gas Company Association (Aspermigas), Moshe Rizal, believes that the rise in oil prices will directly impact the cost of fuel oil imports, as Indonesia is a net importer. Transactions using the U.S. dollar also have the potential to put pressure on the exchange rate of the rupiah and widen the budget deficit if prices remain high.
With the conflict showing no signs of easing, Moshe explained that the global energy market is still overshadowed by uncertainty. For Indonesia, the pressure of oil prices is not only about supply, but also fiscal stability and exchange rates.
Meanwhile, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia is preparing for the worst-case scenario if the conflict persists. This is because about 20-25 percent of Indonesia's crude oil supply comes from the Middle East.
Bahlil stated that the government is beginning to divert some imports from the region to the U.S. to ensure supply certainty, especially if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts. Bahlil also assured that the turmoil in oil prices and the conflict in Iran will not raise fuel oil prices domestically.
"No matter how much it goes up, the price will remain the same as before any changes from the government," said Bahlil in a press conference at his office in Jakarta on Tuesday, March 3, 2026.
– Ilona Estherina and M. Faiz Zaki contributed to this article
Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2090566/soaring-oil-prices-challenges-ahead-for-indonesi