A. Anantha Lakshmi and Diana Mariska in Jakarta – Almost every Thursday for the past 18 years, Bedjo Untung has joined a small group of protesters in front of the Indonesian presidential palace come rain or shine. The group want accountability for crimes under the late dictator Suharto – crimes in which Bedjo was himself a victim.

In 1965, at the age of 17, Bedjo was arrested on suspicion of being a communist in an anti-communist purge by the Indonesian military led by Suharto. He was jailed for nine years without due process, tortured and placed in various forced labour camps across the country, along with millions of others, according to rights groups, who say at least 500,000 were killed.

When Bedjo heard in November that President Prabowo Subianto was going to honour Suharto posthumously as a national hero, he was outraged.

"How can such a cruel man be entitled to be a hero?" says Bedjo, now 77. "I [saw with] my eyes the brutality of Suharto at the time. People slaughtered, killed, kidnapped, detained, tortured."

For Bedjo, the glorification of Suharto signals Prabowo's intention to return to a form of governance resembling the New Order, as Suharto called his 32-year military dictatorship. "Prabowo was part of the New Order. He would like to return to the New Order regime?.?.?.?bit by bit. That is why he wants to delete Suharto's sins," he says.

Since Prabowo's inauguration one year ago, he has expanded the military's power and allowed the armed forces to participate in civilian affairs – undermining the most significant reform of the post-Suharto era and raising concerns about autocratic creep in the world's third-largest democracy. Prabowo, a former general who was Suharto's son-in-law, is accused of committing rights abuses in the 1980s and 1990s.

As president, he has centralised power by downsizing budgets to provincial governments and adopting a top-down decision-making process. He has also built a broad alliance with all major political parties to essentially remove opposition in parliament.

"It has become clear that Prabowo is stealthily attempting to restore what his father-in-law in 1998 lost," says Kevin O'Rourke, a longtime political analyst of Indonesia. "Prabowo is mainly aping the actual political structures of the Suharto era."

Labelling Suharto as a hero is "an indicator of the overall political goal of restoring Suhartoism", he adds.

But many question whether he is likely to succeed. Economically, Indonesians are much better off than they were at the start of Suharto's presidency, with the middle class now becoming a political force.

Indonesia, south-east Asia's largest economy and the world's fourth-most populous nation, has also evolved into a vibrant democracy since student protests brought down Suharto 27 years ago. Elections are seen as a festival of democracy, with voter turnout in recent elections high at around 80 per cent.

"Indonesians have had genuine democracy for a full quarter century, and they are not going to want to revert," says O'Rourke.

Prabowo rejects the authoritarian label. In an October speech, he said he was aware of the criticism: "Is that true? Am I really authoritarian? I don't think so." He added he was open to feedback. His office did not respond to a request for comment.

Still, Prabowo will probably test Indonesia's democratic resolve, political analysts warn.

He has a considerable majority in parliament – his ruling alliance controls 81 per cent of total seats in the legislature – which would allow him to amend the constitution.

As president, and repeatedly over his long political career, he has advocated for the revival of the 1945 constitution, which has no term limits for the presidency and calls for the president to be elected by parliament, not the people.

"The authoritarian playbook is usually to change the constitution, and this is what I think Prabowo will try to do," says Bivitri Susanti, a constitutional expert and professor at Jentera Law School in Jakarta. "Prabowo's intention is truly to return to the past."

Suharto grabbed the presidency in 1967 during sweeping civil unrest that followed the anti-communist purge. For the next 32 years, he ruled with an iron fist, though he was called "the smiling general" for his affable public persona.

Suharto turned around an economy beset with hyperinflation. Rapid industrialisation brought tens of millions out of poverty and by the end of his rule in 1998, a middle class had emerged.

But his rule was also marred by corruption, nepotism and human rights abuses. Through a system called dwifungsi, meaning dual function, the military played a leading role in politics, with the armed forces allocated a significant number of seats in parliament.

Suharto's family and cronies flourished. Transparency International estimated in 2004 that the Suharto family profited by up to $35bn during his rule. His administration brooked no criticism, jailed opponents and was accused of using excessive force to control civil unrest.

He remained largely unchallenged until 1998, when an economic slowdown exacerbated by the Asian financial crisis triggered widespread demonstrations and eventually his resignation. Suharto never faced trial, and Indonesia never investigated the anti-communist purge of the 1960s.

Prabowo was an important military figure during the Suharto regime. He rose through the ranks to become the commander of Indonesia's feared military special forces, clocking a total of 28 years of service. He married Suharto's second daughter in 1983, though they later separated.

Prabowo is accused by rights groups of being involved in the killing of civilians as a young officer in the 1980s in East Timor, which Indonesia invaded under Suharto. He is also accused of abducting student activists who were protesting against Suharto in 1997-98, which led to him being ousted from the military.

The allegations prompted the US to ban his entry for over two decades until his appointment as defence minister in 2019.

Prabowo has always denied any wrongdoing.

Prabowo went into exile after Suharto's downfall. But since his return to Indonesia in the early 2000s he has been building his political profile and ran for the presidency three times.

He finally won the 2024 presidential election with the backing of his massively popular predecessor, Joko Widodo, and by portraying himself as a friendly grandfatherly figure, in sharp contrast to his earlier polarising campaigns.

The grandpa persona has quickly faded in the first year of Prabowo's presidency as what critics call tell-tale signs of the Suharto playbook have emerged.

The most striking throwback is the empowerment of the military, in a callback to Suharto's dwifungsi system.

Under Prabowo, parliament passed a law that allows active military personnel to hold select senior positions in the government. His administration has given the armed forces a critical role in its welfare policies, including the flagship free meals programme for schoolchildren and state-sponsored agriculture programmes. Former generals have assumed leading positions in government bodies and state-owned enterprises.

The government has acknowledged the military's expansion, saying its role is no longer just about security, but "universal defence based on welfare and cross-sector collaboration".

While the military does not have the parliamentary power that it did under Suharto, some are concerned about their empowered role in the civilian space.

"Both Suharto and Prabowo have military backgrounds, and that's why they are strengthening the military's grip on all aspects, including government," says Bivitri, the constitutional expert.

But that will come with consequences, she warns. "Meritocracy will inevitably be destroyed?.?.?.?and any disagreement, which is normal in a democratic country, will be silenced because the military does not see it as productive."

Centralising power is another hallmark of the Suharto administration.

Prabowo has cut provincial budgets by almost a quarter for 2026 – as part of an efficiency measure to find funds for his pet project, the free meals programme. Under the programme, which is expected to cost of $28bn a year when fully rolled out, Prabowo aims to provide free lunches to 82mn school children and pregnant mothers to combat malnutrition and stunting – impaired growth in children.

The budget cuts will drain local governments of a key source of revenue and make them more likely to follow the central government's will, analysts say.

He has also centralised decision-making within the federal government, leaving several cabinet ministries less powerful than they used to be.

Prabowo "really believes that development and progress can be achieved quickly through a centralised and command economy", says Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow at Singapore's Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.

The centralisation theme has also extended to business. Prabowo launched a new sovereign wealth fund called Danantara, which is now the owner of the country's massive state-owned sector that has assets of $900bn – bringing hundreds of companies under one entity that directly reports to the president.

The militarist leadership style has reignited fears over Prabowo's commitment to democracy.

Just a month after winning the presidential election last year, Prabowo called democracy "very, very, very tiring?.?.?.?very, very messy?.?.?.?very, very costly". After coming to power in October, he suggested scrapping direct elections for regional leaders, citing high costs.

"Reformasi died the moment Prabowo got elected," says Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a research professor at the National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia, referring to the political and institutional reform movement that began after Suharto's resignation.

"He is not completely returning to pre-1998?.?.?.?[but] I've never heard Prabowo talking in support of real, full fledged liberal democracy," she says. "Prabowo probably wants to try to take Indonesia [towards] soft authoritarianism."

Prabowo denies that he is an autocrat, but he has publicly expressed his admiration for Suharto's leadership.

A few months after winning the election last year, he was asked at a summit if he would adopt a militaristic approach. He said his leadership style would be true to his principles, values and ideals. "As a patriot, my main value is the wellbeing of my people," he said. He has made food and energy security some of the administration's priorities.

But forging closer ties with the military has also been a defining feature of his tenure so far. Shortly after his inauguration in October 2024, he took his newly appointed cabinet ministers to the national military academy for an orientation retreat. There he spoke to his ministers, who were asked to dress in military fatigues, about the "military way" of discipline and loyalty.

Despite their similarities, Prabowo and Suharto do have their differences, particularly on dealing with the economy and technocrats.

Suharto relied on US-educated economists – nicknamed the Berkeley mafia – to shape development and growth. The economy grew at an average of 7 per cent between 1967 and 1997, sometimes hitting 9 to 10 per cent.

Prabowo, on the other hand, has very few technocrats in his government. He has surrounded himself with yes-men and former military generals, according to people close to the government. Prabowo has promised to boost growth to 8 per cent, levels not seen since Suharto, from the current 5 per cent.

"Suharto listened to technocrats, the experts, to people from the policy side," says Iseas's Made. "Prabowo doesn't listen to anybody. That makes him very different from Suharto. He puts loyalties above expertise."

That could turn out to be his Achilles heel, say analysts, especially as the economy is struggling to create jobs and increase incomes.

The economy is slowing down, in part due to a decades-long reliance on the commodities sector and the resulting deindustrialisation. Many Indonesians have been forced to take low-skilled and low-paying jobs to make ends meet as informal employment has proliferated.

Economic insecurity was at the heart of violent protests in August, when tens of thousands demonstrated across Indonesia over generous housing allowances for lawmakers at a time when the larger populace was struggling.

At least ten people were killed in the protests, some of which Prabowo described as "treason and terrorism".

Prabowo should pay heed to the economy, as a failure to turn it around could trigger more unrest, say experts. "If the government fails to stabilise the economic situation, it will allow for a cross-spectrum of protests from labour groups, peasants, indigenous people, women's groups and students," says Usman Hamid, executive director of Amnesty International Indonesia.

The August protests were quelled after Prabowo ordered the military to conduct patrols in Jakarta and major cities, raising concern among some over a heavy-handed approach. Thousands were arrested, including rights activists for showing support for the demonstrations on social media.

Some believe Prabowo will struggle to impose widespread controls. "I don't want to make a hasty analysis that Prabowo is entirely imitating Suharto, but there is a desire to do so," says lawmaker Bonnie Triyana. "This is the style of a battalion commander turned president.

"If we're consistent with democracy, it should be possible to block it," he adds.

Bonnie says Prabowo's age – the president is 74 now – will also be a hindrance. "Perhaps it would have been different if he had become president at 40."

Saviq Ali, who as a student joined the 1998 protests that brought down Suharto, agrees Prabowo will find it difficult to install a dictatorship. Since the 1990s, student groups have remained a powerful voice, often hitting the streets to express public anger.

"Maybe Prabowo has the intention to consolidate power, to control the society. But I think he also realised that the world is different from 20-30 years ago," says Saviq, who joined a recent demonstration with Bedjo to protest against the 'hero' title for Suharto. "Right now the society is enjoying more open space in social media and there is freedom of information,"

There are other safeguards such as the constitutional court. Indonesia's constitution was amended after Suharto's downfall to include presidential term limits and provide more freedoms.

While the rehabilitation of Suharto as a hero marks "a symbolic return of the New Order political regime," Prabowo will not go far, says Usman of Amnesty International. "I am confident that Indonesian support for democracy remains high. Which means that every effort to bring back authoritarian politics to Indonesia will face resistance," he says.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/271b9a29-4539-4d16-b1fb-df3daa9a3aa