Alfitria Nefi P, Jakarta – Economist of the Indonesian Political Economy Association (AEPI) Khudori responded to Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman's statement regarding Indonesia's readiness to export 27,000 tons of corn in mid-June 2025.
Khudori suggested that the government should monitor corn production levels until the end of the year before deciding whether to export corn. "If the corn export is carried out, the government must ensure a good, surplus production until the end of the year," he said when contacted on Saturday, May 31, 2025.
Prior to this, the minister mentioned that 27,000 tons of corn are ready to be exported. This was conveyed during the celebration of the government's 4 million tons of rice reserve (CBP) in Jakarta, on Friday, May 30, 2025.
At that time, Amran mentioned that the three regions plan to export corn this June. However, only one region has reported its corn export quantity, which is 27,000 tons. Meanwhile, the other two regions have not reported how much corn they plan to export.
Furthermore, according to Khudori, the exported corn is part of the surplus production. He said it was reasonable if the current corn production is abundant. The reason is that the period from February to May is harvest season.
Referring to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) sample area data as of March 2025, Khudori mentioned that the production of corn with 14 percent water content is estimated to reach 8.07 million tons in January-June 2025.
He could not confirm the situation of corn production until the end of the year. Khudori estimated that the conclusion of whether the corn production is in surplus can only be known by the end of September or October this year. "Because at that time, the production has reached 80-85 percent of the national production."
This amount increased from the production in the same period last year, which was only 7.15 million tons, or an increase of 12.88 percent. Despite the production spike, Khudori reminded that climate/weather conditions cause differences in production quantity.
Khudori said the El Nino phenomenon suppressed corn production in the early part of last year. On the contrary, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency stated that the climate this year is normal. Moreover, there was still rain in May, which should have started the dry season. "Comparing the situation with El Nino to normal weather is inappropriate," he said.
Normal weather conditions certainly bring good news for farmers, Khudori said, but other factors in the agricultural sector cannot be fully controlled. "If something threatening happens and causes production to fail in the remaining 7 months, we don't know yet."