Ary Hermawan – It is not clear if Indonesia's president has thought through all the implications of his offer of humanitarian shelter for injured Palestinians. Any mishandling of the issue could potentially hurt his position, domestically and geopolitically.
President Prabowo Subianto's proposal on 9 April 2025 that his country temporarily shelter 1,000 injured Palestinians on humanitarian grounds has drawn strong criticism from several Indonesian Muslim leaders. They see the idea as poorly thought out, and worse, it potentially aligns with a much-decried plan pushed by the US and Israel to empty the Gaza Strip for development and tourism.
The controversy is unlikely to stop Prabowo from carrying out Indonesia's proposal, as the chairmen of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah, the nation's two largest Islamic organisations, have publicly endorsed it. This was despite genuine concerns raised by some high-profile members of both organisations; the chairs' support indicates Prabowo's ability to retain the loyalty of his core Muslim allies.
Prabowo had announced his wish to evacuate Gazans impacted by the war before his recent tour of Turkiye, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. He clarified that the evacuation would be "temporary" and that he would discuss it with the Palestinian authorities and other Middle Eastern countries.
It is unclear if the proposal came directly from Prabowo or whether his team consulted with the foreign ministry (Kemlu), given rumours of a disconnect between the president and Kemlu's career diplomats. Regardless, it is deemed problematic by several Muslim leaders, who are largely concerned that it will facilitate US President Donald Trump's and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to "clean out" Gaza.
The Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), a national body of Islamic scholars that issues non-binding religious edicts, had urged Prabowo to drop the plan. MUI's leader, Anwar Abbas, asked why Indonesia was "...supporting the US and Israeli plan". Din Syamsuddin, a former chairman of Muhammadiyah and now chief advisor of the Indonesian People's Alliance to Defend Palestine (ARI-BP), a non-governmental organisation, argued that Prabowo's proposal would only help Trump and Netanyahu "take over" Gaza.
NU's executive Ulil Abshar Abdalla (Gus Ulil) joined the chorus of criticism, calling it a political "blunder", further amplifying the concern that the idea could be seen as tacit support for the expulsion of Gazans. Analysts have raised concerns over the absence of advisors who could provide critical advice to Prabowo on this issue.
Maarif Institute, a think-tank created by another former Muhammadiyah chairman, Ahmad Syafi'i Maarif, questioned the timing and glaring lack of details for this idea's implementation. That it was announced shortly after Trump declared his trade war with many countries, including Indonesia, has triggered speculation that the plan was made at Trump's behest, as Maarif Institute's executive director, Andar Nubowo, told the author.
Moreover, Maarif Institute leaders pointed out that there was no clarity on how long the evacuated Gazans would stay in Indonesia and whether the government had prepared for the social implications of hosting thousands of Palestinian refugees, especially if they could not return to their homeland. In short, the Maarif Institute's view is that the Prabowo government does not inspire confidence that it has thought out the long-term implications. Nubowo said that it was possible that his institute's concerns would fall on deaf ears, even though it is considered the most influential think-tank linked to Muhammadiyah.
Despite these criticisms, Prabowo would likely press ahead with little pushback from the public, with the Social Affairs Ministry apparently having started preparing a site for evacuees. The government has not inspired confidence that the relocation will be temporary, but the establishments within NU and Muhammadiyah have supported the plan, citing the urgent need for humanitarian assistance for Palestinians and their organisations' confidence in the government.
It appears that statements of support from NU chairman Yahya Cholil Staquf and Muhammadiyah chairman Haedar Nashir were made to counter those who are critical of Prabowo's plan, including their own rank-and-file. This support for the president complements that from the three Muslim parties in parliament: the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN), and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which are part of his broad coalition. Separately, NU and Muhammadiyah were granted mining concessions by the Widodo administration and the Prabowo administration (the offer was made during Widodo's presidency). Critics say this is an apparent quid pro quo for their support for Prabowo (and Widodo as his major backer) for the February 2024 presidential election.
The NU and Muhammadiyah leaders' decision to downplay the geopolitical implications of Prabowo's Gaza "plan" is likely driven by their reliance on Prabowo's patronage. Regardless of whether their support for the idea is genuine, the risk is that Indonesia might inadvertently lend credence to Trump's and Netanyahu's plan to empty Gaza. As it is, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia have opposed Prabowo's proposal.
The price of mishandling the proposed Gaza evacuation and transferring refugees to Indonesian soil could be high. If carried out unilaterally or if anything goes awry, Indonesia's standing within the Islamic world could be at stake, while the Indonesian people may bear the burden of hosting potentially thousands of Palestinian refugees with no clear end in sight. Prabowo's Gaza plan, if not carefully designed and implemented, could prove damaging for him domestically and geopolitically.
[Ary Hermawan is a Visiting Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and editor of Indonesia at Melbourne, an academic blog hosted by the University of Melbourne's Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society (CILIS).]
Source: https://fulcrum.sg/indonesian-muslims-divided-over-prabowos-gaza-plan