Pizaro Gozali Idrus, Jakarta – Four months into his presidency, Indonesian leader Prabowo Subianto has already secured his party's nomination for re-election, but analysts say the move is premature because of his untested leadership amid pressing economic challenges.
While the announcement at the Gerindra party's 17th anniversary celebration last week signaled confidence in Prabowo's leadership, experts say it might also be a strategic move to consolidate power and pre-empt potential rivals, including his vice president.
"If his policies work, the people will see him as an effective leader and naturally re-elect him," Ali Sahab, a political analyst at Airlangga University, told BenarNews.
"But right now, poverty and unemployment are our most pressing challenges. Addressing them requires deep, strategic policies to foster sustainable economic growth."
Indonesia's poverty rate stood at 9% as of 2024, while unemployment is at 5%, according to government statistics.
The coalition that helped Prabowo be elected last year, known as the Advanced Indonesia Coalition Plus, could also shift its allegiances before the next election, Ali said.
"In politics, there are no permanent alliances, only permanent interests," he said. "If Prabowo is perceived as underperforming, support could shift elsewhere.
On Saturday, Gerindra Secretary-General, Ahmad Muzani announced that a special party congress had reached a unanimous decision to nominate Prabowo again.
"The entire Gerindra Party cadre has requested that we nominate Prabowo Subianto as the presidential candidate for the 2029 general election," Muzani said.
In addition to securing the party's nomination, Prabowo was reappointed as Gerindra's chairman and chief patron.
Prabowo struck a cautious tone in his speech to the party on Saturday.
"If my programs fail, there is no need to nominate me again," he said.
However, in a move seen as an effort to consolidate his political influence, Prabowo on Friday proposed a "permanent coalition" among his allies.
The Presidential Communications Office declined to comment on the nomination, referring all inquiries to Gerindra.
While major coalition parties such as Golkar, the National Awakening Party, the National Mandate Party, and the Democratic Party have voiced support for Prabowo, the National Democratic Party (NasDem) remains undecided.
"It's too early to discuss this," the news portal Tempo.co. quoted NasDem executive Willy Aditya as saying.
Dominique Nicky Fahrizal, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Gerindra's confidence in nominating Prabowo again was fueled by strong approval ratings for the new president's performance in his first 100 days in office.
A January survey by Litbang Kompas found that public satisfaction with the Prabowo administration stood at 80.9% – significantly higher than the roughly 60% approval rating former President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo had received early in his first term.
Dominique attributed the high approval to Prabowo's flagship program: free school lunches for students, a populist initiative that has resonated with many Indonesians.
"The free lunch program is a top-of-mind issue for Indonesians," Dominique said. "Populist programs tend to generate high approval ratings."
The early nomination also raises questions about Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka's political future.
Gibran, 37, Jokowi's eldest son, is widely speculated to be a potential presidential contender in the next general election, in 2029.
Ali, of Airlangga University, said Prabowo's decision to accept the nomination might stem from concerns over Gibran's ambitions.
"This could be Prabowo's way of pre-empting a challenge from within his own ranks," he said.
Ambang Priyonggo, a political analyst at Multimedia Nusantara University, said that Prabowo's early bid could also be a political strategy to project stability and commitment.
"This is likely an attempt to quash speculation that Gibran could take over the presidency before 2029," Ambang told BenarNews.
'Prabowo is logical choice for Gerindra'
Despite high approval ratings, the new administration has faced criticism for economic management and budgetary inefficiencies.
A recent survey by the Center for Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) that polled 95 experts and journalists gave Prabowo's government an average performance score of 5 out of 10.
Prabowo's economic policies, including the free school lunch program, have also come under scrutiny.
"The program is proving inefficient in terms of budget allocation and coverage," Ambang said. "Reallocating funds to support it has had unintended consequences, creating dissatisfaction among other sectors of the economy," he said, referring to the president's controversial austerity measures.
Arga Pribadi Imawan, a political analyst at Gadjah Mada University, said Prabowo's early nomination reflects a broader trend in global politics: the centralization of power around individual candidates rather than political parties.
"In contemporary politics, it is the figurehead who matters, not the party," Arga told BenarNews.
"Prabowo remains a dominant political figure in Indonesia, while his rivals from the 2024 election have seen their influence wane. This makes Prabowo the logical choice for Gerindra."
Trubus Rahadiansyah, a public policy expert at Trisakti University, said that Prabowo's nomination also serves as a loyalty test for his ministers.
"This is a way for Prabowo to gauge who among his cabinet members is truly loyal to him," Trubus told BenarNews.
He pointed to recent policies introduced by Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia, such as restrictions on the sale of subsidized liquefied petroleum gas that were later revoked after sparking public outrage.
"That policy benefited businesses more than ordinary citizens," Trubus said, adding that such controversies could undermine Prabowo's administration if not addressed properly.
– Nazarudin Latif in Jakarta contributed to this report.
Source: https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/prabowo-eyes-second-term-02192025113121.htm