Rendy Pahrun Wadipalapa – The background manoeuvring by various parties in Jakarta's 2024 gubernatorial elections foreshadows similarly complex play with 2029's presidential race in mind. For some players, today's loss might be tomorrow's gain.
The victory of Pramono Anung and Rano Karno in Jakarta's November 2024 gubernatorial election was initially hailed as a "triumph of democratic forces" over President Prabowo Subianto's entrenched ruling coalition (known as Koalisi Indonesia Maju Plus or KIM Plus). Pramono and Rano, backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which is not in the coalition government, beat the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair endorsed by a bloated alliance of 12 parties. While independent candidates Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardana also contested, Dharma was initially positioned as a puppet candidate to ease Ridwan to victory when it seemed as though the race would be over in a single round. After the Constitutional Court rulings allowed the PDI-P to nominate a candidate on its own, Dharma and Kun Wardana remained peripheral to the main contest.
The election revealed how "toxic alliances" – defined as partnerships between apparent political opponents that exclude genuine alternatives while maintaining the appearance of democracy – have evolved in Indonesia. These political alliances are increasingly sophisticated; the pattern was first established when former rivals Prabowo and former president Joko Widodo (Jokowi) united after 2019 when Jokowi invited Prabowo to serve as his defence minister. This created a template for elite accommodation, culminating in Prabowo's 2024 presidential victory, with Jokowi's eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his running mate. As one of the key players whose preferred candidate pair was alienated and defeated in the presidential election, PDI-P stood against such alliances in the November 2024 regional elections.
It is ironic that to defeat such toxic unity, PDI-P and Pramono secured victory through a carefully constructed web of elite arrangements. Several elements within KIM Plus: the United Development Party (PPP), the National Democrats (NasDem), the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB), provided quiet support endorsing Pramono, which undermined their coalition's official candidate, Ridwan.
Simultaneously, PDI-P had shrewdly paired Pramono with Rano, a former actor-turned-politician, whose Si Doel persona resonated deeply with Jakarta's Betawi community. Moreover, PDI-P carefully managed Pramono's campaign to avoid polarising rhetoric while actively courting previously antagonistic political bases. Most notably, they secured support from former Jakarta governors Anies Baswedan's and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama's ("Ahok") camps. Both groups were bitterly divided during Jakarta's controversial 2017 gubernatorial election but found common ground in the last stretch of Jokowi's presidency. This reconciliation became possible partly because they shared growing dissatisfaction with Jokowi, particularly his practice of dynastic politics, creating an opening for PDI-P to present itself as an alternative that could transcend old rivalries.
To attract voters, Pramono deployed unity rhetoric that mirrored Prabowo's presidential campaign. He openly stated that he was the governor for all political parties after acknowledging that he privately met representatives from parties officially backing his opponent. Pramono's victory can also be attributed to his opponents' mistakes: Suswono's inappropriate jokes about widows sparked outrage, for instance, while Ridwan, a former West Java governor of Sundanese background, struggled to connect with Jakarta voters.
Pramono's success lies in his unique position as insider and outsider. While a veteran political operator with deep connections across party lines, he was formally positioned in opposition to the ruling coalition. As Jokowi's cabinet secretary (2014-2024), Pramono had cultivated extensive networks within the very power structure he challenged. His past loyalty to Jokowi and cordial relations with Prabowo's camp made him less threatening to the establishment, while his PDI-P credentials maintained his credibility as a representative of the "opposition". As one of the few PDI-P politicians who successfully navigated the growing rift between the party (and its chair Megawati Sukarnoputri) and Jokowi, Pramono explicitly rejected the starker oppositional stance taken by many of his party colleagues, which allowed him to quietly siphon support from within the ruling coalition, including securing Jokowi's blessing before the election.
Moreover, an elite effort to block Anies inadvertently created the perfect opening for PDI-P to safely propose their own cadre instead of backing him. While KIM Plus' alliance was primarily constructed to prevent Anies' return as Jakarta governor, they overlooked the strategic advantage for PDI-P. The party leveraged Pramono, portraying him as a "safe" candidate: a proven Jokowi loyalist yet seen as lacking presidential ambitions that might threaten Gibran's anticipated 2029 bid. In short, PDI-P effectively identified a candidate who could navigate the space between opposition and accommodation. Unlike Anies, who clearly challenges establishment interests, Pramono was a more manageable opposition candidate.
In the Pramono-Anies relationship, we see another strategic realignment for political dealmaking. After PDI-P's initial consideration of Anies was forestalled by establishment pressures, both sides readjusted their stance. PDI-P secured Anies' endorsement while he maintained potential pathways to his own future political opportunities. This dynamic reveals how seemingly opposing political forces in Indonesia can find common ground through their careful negotiation of longer-term interests. While PDI-P and Anies appeared to be at odds when the party fielded Pramono, their subsequent cooperation suggests sophisticated political calculations. Whether these arrangements included discussions about Anies' potential 2029 presidential bid (as PDI-P's candidate) is debated, but the episode demonstrates how Indonesian politicians can transform setbacks into opportunities through strategic alliance-building.
In a limited sense, Pramono-Rano's victory suggests that in Indonesia's current political landscape, the most successful challenge against elite accommodation may come not from outsiders but from insiders, who might turn its mechanisms against itself.
[Rendy Pahrun Wadipalapa is a researcher at the Research Centre for Domestic Government, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia.]