Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor and candidate in the last recent presidential election, finds himself at a critical crossroads in his political career after failing to secure a nomination for the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial race. With his ambitions momentarily stymied, speculation is rife about his next move. Anies has said he is considering forming a new political party to maintain his relevance until the 2029 presidential election.
Anies' failure to advance in the regional elections started when he lost the support of his political party allies, leaving him without a nomination ticket. He then failed to secure a nomination by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) despite his candidacy being briefly revived after a Constitutional Court ruling. Lastly, he was allegedly blocked by President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's group when he was about to be nominated by the PDI-P in West Java.
With his candidacy in the 2024 regional elections closed from all possible angles, some believe that the systematic blocking of Anies' chance for a government office occurred because he is greatly feared by those in power. The former Jakarta governor is considered to be a threat because he is not part of the oligarchy or political financiers who could control him once in office. Moreover, Anies is said to be feared because he has his own ideas and is difficult to subdue, which could potentially disrupt the legacy of the current administration.
Political analysts have also stated the possibility that Anies was not given a path to compete in the 2024 regional elections to further block his chances as a serious contender in the 2029 presidential election.
Therefore, Anies' next move has interested many parties. Where will the seemingly formidable force go now that all doors are closing on him?
News of Anies possibly establishing his own political party or joining an established one has been picking up speed. The possibility came from Anies himself in a video he uploaded on Aug. 30. Establishing a political party or a mass organization would accommodate his vision for change, according to the former Jakarta governor.
Regarding joining an existing political party, Anies appears hesitant as he questions which party is currently not compromised by the ruling power. Thus, his inner circle is said to gear more toward the former governor establishing a new political party in order for him to be able to contest the 2029 presidential elections.
According to observers, if the goal is to prepare a political candidacy in the next five years, establishing a political party would be more than effective, especially to maintain and cultivate the existing support Anies already has. However, Anies must take into account the behavior of voters in Indonesia who have tendencies for moderate and even pragmatic attitudes in choosing a party or candidate.
Alternatively, Anies could establish a political consulting firm or a public policy research institute to stay relevant. In doing so, he would be able to preserve his connections with the bureaucracy, political parties and civil society. However, given how unstable the situation is, observers have urged him not to follow this course in the near future. It would be better if he waited until the right time.
What we've heard
It has been confirmed that Anies Baswedan will not run in the 2024 gubernatorial election. Previously, he was rumored to have a path to a nomination through the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), but at the last minute, the party decided to support Pramono Anung instead.
A source close to Anies said he did not appear disappointed with the party's decision. "In fact, it's his campaign team that seems more upset," the source said.
At the moment, the source added, Anies had not made any concrete political moves. He mentioned Anies had received a number of offers to work as an advisor or lecturer at foreign universities. However, the source said Anies would remain in Indonesia, adding that he was not currently considering joining any existing political party.
The source said several colleagues of Anies' had urged him to form his own political party and that Anies was considering doing so. However, the source noted that if Anies eventually established a political party, he would not rely on veteran political figures.
Additionally, there had been discussions about channelling support from certain organizations politically aligned with Anies, such as Turun Tangan, Ubah Bareng and Humanies. "These groups are likely to better represent Anies' voter base," the source said.
The source also mentioned that several politicians within Prabowo's inner circle had been lobbying for Anies to assist in the administration of president-elect Prabowo Subianto. However, Anies had declined, citing ethical considerations and the importance of maintaining checks and balances in the government.
"There were lobbying efforts in the past," the source said.