Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – Surveys may put former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan as the most popular figure if he runs for reelection for the same job in November, but he will not win it, and may not even be able to contest it, if President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo has anything to do with it.
To Jokowi, Anies has become something of a political nemesis in his attempt to build his own political dynasty, to sustain power and influence over the nation beyond Oct. 20 when he steps down from power after a 10-year reign. Jokowi has already got his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka clinch the vice presidency as running mate to Prabowo Subianto, who beat Anies in the presidential race in February. The former furniture salesman has other plans for himself and other members of the family as part of this emerging political dynasty.
It is not so much the Jakarta governorship that matters to Jokowi. It is more the fact that, if Anies were to win the governorship, he would be in a strong position to contest the presidential election in 2029, making him a serious threat to Gibran's chances. Jokowi needs to remove this threat early, almost by any means, to open the path for his 36-year-old son.
Tempo reported that in late May, Jokowi summoned the chiefs of four political parties – Gerindra, Golkar, the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) – to the presidential palace, in which he told them they should jointly nominate former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil to run head-to-head against Anies in the Jakarta governorship.
Ridwan, according to many surveys, is the second most popular figure in the Jakarta race, but the gap may be too wide for him to be able to beat hot-favorite Anies. Golkar has suggested instead that Ridwan runs for reelection for the West Java governorship, where he is almost assured of a victory, rather than running for Jakarta only to lose it to Anies.
An earlier plan to put Jokowi's youngest son 29-year-old Kaesang Pangarep as candidate for the Jakarta election has also been scrapped for the same reason; and now Kaesang is a strong candidate to win the Central Java gubernatorial election. Bobby Nasution, who is married to Jokowi's only daughter, is the leading candidate for the North Sumatra governorship.
On Nov. 27, voters will return to the polling stations, this time to elect the head of their local governments, comprising 34 provinces, 415 regencies and 93 mayoralties. The Jakarta governorship is one of the most important jobs, given its centrality even as it is losing its status as the nation's capital, which is being moved to Nusantara in East Kalimantan.
Jokowi served as Jakarta governor in 2012-2014 before he ran and won the presidential election in 2014 and in 2019. Anies was governor in 2017-2022, and after losing his presidential bid in February, decided to run for reelection this November, but he needs to get a ticket from political parties, which have the sole power to nominate candidates.
There is no love lost between the two men. Anies was Jokowi's chief spokesman in the 2014 presidential campaign and was rewarded a cabinet post as education minister but was fired 21 months later. Since then, Anies has built his own political career, first winning the Jakarta governorship in 2017, and trying his hand but losing in the February presidential race.
Jokowi, or through his operatives, has met other political parties that are contemplating to give the governorship ticket to Anies, to try to talk them out of their plan. He may just pull it off come Aug. 27, the deadline for submitting nominations. He is certainly making progress.
Since no party meets the threshold of controlling 20 percent of the seats in the Jakarta Legislative Council to be able to nominate, they will have to form alliances to put up a common candidate. Anies has to negotiate with more than one political party to secure a ticket. In comes Jokowi's intervention.
Having earlier announced they would nominate Anies, the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which has the most seat in the Jakarta council, has now pulled out of the deal, saying they would put up their own candidates.
The NasDem Party, which is a member of Jokowi's coalition government, is contemplating nominating Anies, but has not made any final decision, with chairman Surya Paloh holding several meetings with Jokowi in June, according to Tempo. NasDem has been punished by Jokowi for supporting Anies' presidential bid in February, with one of its cabinet ministers sent to prison for corruption, and another still on trial, also for corruption.
The Nation Awakening Party (PKB) is also contemplating to nominate Anies for the Jakarta election, but again has not made up its mind. As a member of the Jokowi coalition government, it is also coming under pressure. The PKB supported Anies in the February race.
An unexpected support for Anies has come from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which in the past has been at odds with him. The party says it is considering supporting Anies. But this may be a moot point, if not irrelevant, since PDI-P did not win significant votes in Jakarta.
This PDI-P's decision sounds more like the expression "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" as it is trying to get back at Jokowi. The PDI-P gave the ticket to Jokowi in his 2014 and 2019 presidential bids, but he turned his back in 2024 by not supporting the party's presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo, and instead actively supporting the Prabowo-Gibran campaign.
Jokowi's covert interventions in the coming regional elections, particularly the way he tries to stop Anies from winning or even running, could backfire and only raise Anies' popularity as the man to rally against the rise of nepotism in government and a new political dynasty.
What we've heard
Several politicians from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) said the Muslim-based party announced its support for Anies as a bargaining chip in its negotiation with the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) that wants the PKS to shift its support to Ridwan Kamil. "PKS wants the deputy governor seat as part of the deal," said a politician.
Another source, however, said the PKS is almost certain to support Anies because their internal survey shows that the party grassroots want Anies to serve his second term in Jakarta. According to the source, a PKS representative has met with representatives from the NasDem Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB) to convey a message that the PKS is keen to take the deputy governor post under Anies should the three parties form a coalition, as they did in the presidential election.
The source said the PKS opens a possibility to join forces with other political parties that did not nominate Prabowo Subianto like the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Although already showing interest in supporting Anies in public, the PDI-P has not formally approached the PKS for coalition talks, the source said.
The PDI-P and the PKB, on the other hand, are also beginning talks about a coalition in the Jakarta and East Java gubernatorial elections. Therefore, according to a source, PDI-P might be willing to support Anies if they can secure the deputy governor post. The source added that Anies has so far received personal support from PKB chairman Muhaimin Iskandar.
A politician of the party that supports Prabowo said efforts have been made to offer Anies a meeting with Prabowo. Anies is being lobbied to support the incoming administration. In response, Anies consulted NasDem leaders to talk about the offer. "Anies was advised not to hastily accept the offer from the Onward Indonesia Coalition," said the politician.
[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]