Kiki Siregar, Jakarta – Indonesia's current ruling party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), scored a historic hat-trick in the country's latest legislative election, winning the most votes for the third time in a row.
But the party faces a dilemma in deciding how it wants to deal with Mr Prabowo Subianto, who won a decisive victory in the presidential election, observers say.
The country's General Elections Commission (KPU) announced on Wednesday night (Mar 20) that PDI-P won last month's legislative election with 16.72 per cent of the vote.
The country's oldest party, Golkar, came in second with 15.29 per cent, followed by the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), which received 13.22 per cent.
Shortly after the election on Feb 14, PDI-P's secretary general Hasto Kristiyanto indicated the party might be an opposition party when exit poll results showed it was leading on the legislative front, but had lost in the presidential election.
Since the KPU announced official results, however, PDI-P has not given a firm statement on its position. The silence speaks volumes about its dilemma, some analysts say.
With PDI-P's presidential candidate Mr Ganjar Pranowo losing to Mr Prabowo, the chairman of Gerindra, PDI-P is now in a delicate situation, said political analyst Nicky Fahrizal from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank.
"From my perspective, PDI-P is not yet unanimous about whether it should be a political force outside the government," he said. "This is not yet clear, and they are still very doubtful."
While some intellectuals and academics in Indonesia hope the PDI-P will become the opposition to serve as a check-and-balance to Mr Prabowo's government, Mr Nicky said PDI-P may struggle to find parties to join such an opposition coalition in parliament.
"PDI-P is stuck for now. Their ministers are still in the Cabinet and, within the elites, there is no unanimity regarding whether to be in opposition or not," he said.
There are currently five PDI-P ministers in the Cabinet, which consists of 34 ministers.
Outgoing President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is a member of PDI-P. But during the recent elections, he appeared to endorse Mr Prabowo, whose vice-presidential pick was Jokowi's son, current Solo mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka.
Since the announcement of Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran's candidacy last October, a rift has occurred between PDI-P and Jokowi.
More parties could join Prabowo's coalition
PDI-P nominated Mr Ganjar as its presidential candidate for last month's election and was in a coalition with three other parties: the United Indonesia Party (Perindo), People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and the United Development Party (PPP).
All three did not make it to parliament, although PPP wants to challenge the election results at the constitutional court.
A political party must secure at least 4 per cent of national votes to enter parliament.
Meanwhile, Mr Prabowo was backed by a coalition of Gerindra, Golkar, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Democratic Party, which all made it to parliament.
In total, they won about 43.16 per cent of votes. Eight parties made it to parliament, and the Democratic Party and PAN came in seventh and eighth, respectively.
The National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Democratic Party (Nasdem), and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) came in fourth, fifth and sixth.
All three had endorsed as president former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who does not belong to any political party.
Hence, if PDI-P wants to be an effective and robust opposition party, it must team up with the PKB, Nasdem, and PKS, said Mr Wasisto Raharjo, a political analyst with Indonesia's National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
They would together make up about 45.4 per cent and be larger than Mr Prabowo's coalition.
But Mr Wasisto doubts PDI-P will end up together with the three parties.
"The battle is between those mid-sized parties, whether Nasdem, PKB and PKS will join or not," he said. "The key for the next opposition is what those mid-sized parties' stances are."
There are signs Nasdem may not be an opposition party. Its chairman Surya Paloh met with Jokowi a few days after the election and told journalists they discussed the situation in society after the elections.
On Wednesday night after KPU announced the results, Mr Paloh congratulated Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran. He also said Nasdem accepts the results of the presidential and legislative elections.
Some experts are equally sceptical PKB would want to be an opposition party as it has never been one, unlike PDI-P and PKS.
Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran are also set to grow their coalition. On Thursday, Mr Gibran said more than one party would come on board. "There is a tendency to go in that direction, more than one party (joining us)," he said.
Mr Wasisto from BRIN said if PDI-P and the other parties could form a coalition, they could provide checks and balances.
"But if the middle-sized parties are tempted to join Prabowo's coalition, it will be like the (current) government where the government's agenda is being run without resistance," he said, referring to Jokowi's supermajority coalition of parties in the House of Representatives.
In the coming months, Mr Prabowo is likely to lobby other parties and try to lure one or two more to join his coalition, believes political lecturer Aditya Perdana from the University of Indonesia.
"The compensation is, of course, a ministerial position. That's clear," he said.
Who to succeed Megawati?
Besides its opposition dilemma, PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri has other significant concerns including who it will field in the next presidential election, believes Mr Nicky from CSIS.
While PDI-P managed to win more than 16 per cent of votes in the legislative elections, its presidential candidate Mr Ganjar came in last, also with about 16 per cent of votes, suggesting that those who chose him were mostly PDI-P loyalists.
For years, PDI-P has been synonymous with the 77-year-old Mdm Megawati, who is Indonesia's fifth president and daughter of founding father Sukarno.
It now faces big questions including who the party's next presidential candidate will be, whether Mdm Megawati will remain influential enough to secure a fourth consecutive legislative win for PDI-P, and who will succeed her as the party's chairperson, said Mr Nicky.
Crucially, the party emerged ahead of Golkar in the 2024 election by only a slim margin. There is also speculation that the popular Jokowi could move to Golkar in a bid to continue wielding political influence after he steps down as president in October.
PDI-P is slated to hold a congress in 2025, but Mr Nicky believes it may hold it this year, given it usually holds one after the elections.
The party last held a congress in August 2019, four months after the presidential and legislative elections that year.
Mdm Megawati has the option to pass the torch to her children, who are both PDI-P members: House speaker Puan Maharani and Prananda Prabowo, head of PDI-P's micro, small, and medium enterprises unit.
Another option is Mr Ganjar, the former two-term governor of Central Java, suggested Mr Nicky. Mr Ganjar cannot run in Indonesia's gubernatorial elections in November as the law stipulates individuals can only be governor for up to 10 years.
Mr Ganjar needs to hold a strategic position within PDI-P to remain relevant, should the party want him to run again for president in 2029, Mr Nicky explained.
"There must be a regeneration within the party. It is a shame not to optimise members like Mr Ganjar," he said, adding that Mr Ganjar has become a more recognisable face through his candidacy this time.
"I think Mdm Megawati has deep thoughts. 'Do I regenerate this party so that non-family-member cadres can hold strategic positions such as chairperson? Or do I hold on to my love for my children?' This is an inner turmoil," said Mr Nicky.
The PDI-P's quandary is also reflected in how it is dealing with other issues.
While Mr Ganjar has called for a parliamentary inquiry into the elections, which he claimed were marred by irregularities, PDI-P has yet to do so.
Mr Ganjar and his campaign team have also said they would file a lawsuit at the constitutional court to probe the elections. However, despite having said this several times, they have not been as quick to act as Mr Anies and his team.
Will Prabowo face gridlock after winning big?
If a strong opposition does not materialise, Mr Prabowo will be able to govern without gridlock, analysts said.
Official results show he and Mr Gibran won the presidential election with 58.58 per cent of votes, far ahead of second-placed Mr Anies and his running-mate, PKB chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, who received 24.95 per cent.
In third place was Mr Ganjar, who teamed up with Mr Mahfud MD, former coordinating minister for politics, legal and security, with 16.47 per cent.
Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran swept 36 out of 38 provinces, while Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin won two: conservative Aceh and West Sumatra.
Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran won convincingly in almost all the 36 provinces, securing more than 65 per cent of votes in most of them – even the swing province of East Java.
Their vote share was highest in North Sulawesi, the hometown of Mr Prabowo's mother, at 75.31 per cent.
The duo's smallest win was in Jakarta, where their vote share of 41.67 per cent pipped Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin's 41.07 per cent. Mr Anies had been expected to triumph in the capital as he was previously its governor.
While the president did not back Mr Prabowo explicitly, he actively distributed social handouts, particularly in the strongholds of PDI-P. Some observers believe this was to sway voters towards his son and Mr Prabowo, and away from Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud.
Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin won Aceh and West Sumatra because political Islam is quite prevalent in the two provinces, and is most associated with the pair, said Mr Wasisto from BRIN.
They won 73.56 per cent of votes in Aceh, ahead of Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran, who garnered 24.43 per cent, and Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud with 2.01 per cent.
In West Sumatra, the pair won with 56.53 per cent of votes, followed by Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran with 39.45 per cent and Mr Ganjar and Mr Mahfud with 4.02 per cent.
The result is also because Jokowi has no strongholds in the two provinces, Mr Nicky from CSIS noted. Jokowi lost there in 2019, and this may be a reason why the two provinces went to Mr Anies and Mr Muhaimin, who were often considered the antithesis of Jokowi and had campaigned for change.
Nevertheless, Mr Prabowo's landslide win did not translate to a victory for his party Gerindra.
Mr Ujang Komarudin, a political analyst with Al Azhar University in Jakarta, attributed this to Mr Prabowo not promoting his party when campaigning.
"According to Gerindra's high-ranking officials, Mr Prabowo didn't campaign for Gerindra, and he didn't use Gerindra's attributes," he said.
What the 2024 elections showed, is that populist policies still prevail, said analysts. These include the social aid offered by Jokowi before the election, which Mr Prabowo's rivals decried, as well as Mr Prabowo's free lunch and milk programme for students across Indonesia, which is projected to cost up to IDR400 trillion rupiah (US$25.5 billion).
"Our voters are not autonomous. Just by giving handouts, (politicians) can easily sway," said political lecturer Mr Aditya.