Asyraf Kamil, Singapore – Whether Indonesian President Joko Widodo shifts his allegiance to Indonesia's oldest political party Golkar in a bid to continue to wield political influence after he steps down largely depends on when it holds its national congress, experts said.

However, they warned that Mr Widodo may face internal opposition or resistance should he take on a leadership position within the party due to its constitution.

Mr Widodo is currently a member of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) but his relationship with party chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri soured after his eldest son Mr Gibran Rakabuming Raka decided to stand as a vice-presidential running mate for a presidential candidate not backed by PDI-P, Gerindra's Mr Prabowo Subianto, in the run-up to the Feb 14 elections.

Golkar is expected to hold its national congress later in December where it will elect its chairman, among others.

Three ministers from Mr Widodo's current Cabinet – Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto, Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia and Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita – as well as Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly Bambang Soesatyo are vying for the party chairmanship. Mr Airlangga is the current chairman of Golkar.

Talks of Mr Widodo potentially joining Golkar gained traction recently after Mr Airlangga said on Feb 10 that the party has a special relationship with Mr Widodo.

"It has been a close relationship. We have walked side by side for a long time. Just look at our political ads featuring the president, this could be an indication of the level of comfort he (feels) with us," Mr Airlangga was quoted as saying by Antara, in response to a question on Mr Widodo's post-presidential political career.

Political experts believe that Mr Widodo's deteriorating relationship with PDI-P, as well as the need for a new "political vehicle" post-presidency, are among the factors that may lead to him to join Golkar.

Dr Ujang Komarudin, a political expert from the University of Al Azhar Indonesia, told CNA that whether Mr Widodo decides to align himself with Golkar "hinges significantly" on the timing of the party's national congress.

"If the election occurs in December 2024 as scheduled every five years, Mr Widodo's influence may wane since he will no longer hold the presidency ... however, if a snap leadership election takes place while Mr Widodo is still in office – possibly in September – he could wield substantial power.

"This scenario would indicate Mr Widodo's strategic manoeuvring to gain control of Golkar and potentially undermine democratic processes," said Dr Ujang.

Mr Widodo is expected to step down as president on Oct 20 after serving the maximum two terms. Mr Prabowo, who is Defence Minister, has claimed victory in Indonesia's February presidential election based on early counts.

Agreeing with Dr Ujang, executive director of political consulting firm Trias Politika Strategis, Agung Baskoro, said that Mr Widodo's political influence "will diminish considering Mr Prabowo's presidency" should Golkar stick to its scheduled national congress in December.

"At this stage, Mr Airlangga will prioritise Mr Prabowo over Mr Widodo," said Mr Agung.

Mr Agung added that he believes that Mr Widodo will likely take on a more advisory role within Golkar should he join the party – be it within the Board of Patrons or the Advisory Board.

"I have some doubts about President Widodo's intention to pursue the leader position, especially given the necessary cadreship process unless there are amendments to the party's constitution.

"Hence, it seems more suitable for him to occupy a role within the Board of Patrons or Advisory Board. This would help mitigate potential internal political conflicts if his involvement necessitates party constitutional changes or adaptations to suit his political objectives," he said.

Within Golkar's constitution, a candidate vying for chairmanship of the party needs to serve a minimum of one term for a period of five years as a member within the party structure.

Echoing a similar thought, Dr Ujang said: "Mr Widodo might nominate his trusted confidant, Minister of Investment Bahlil Lahadalia, for the leadership position, with victory potentially paving the way for him to assume the role of Chairman of the Board of Patrons."

Golkar open to accepting outsiders: Expert

Associate Professor of International Relations at Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani (UNJANI) Dr Yohanes Sulaiman told CNA that Mr Widodo potentially choosing Golkar as his new political vehicle "is actually not difficult to understand".

"First, Golkar is one of the largest parties that wins in elections. Second, compared to other parties, it is quite open to accepting outsiders ... Golkar, with its open system, easily accepts external figures and integrates them into its leadership," said Dr Yohanes.

Separately, Dr Ujang from the University of Al Azhar Indonesia said that Golkar has maintained a "strong bond" with Mr Widodo.

"Since assuming the presidency, Jokowi has found it easy to communicate with, and exert control over, the party's affairs. He wielded considerable influence in appointing Mr Airlangga as the party leader in December 2017," he said.

On whether it is feasible for Mr Widodo to join another party like Mr Prabowo's Gerindra, Dr Ujang said that handing over the leadership of the party may weaken the latter's position.

"It appears Mr Prabowo will stay with (his party) as he aims to maintain control over political parties, particularly his brainchild, Gerindra. Golkar emerges as a more appealing choice due to its flexible, open, and inclusive internal dynamics, welcoming individuals from all backgrounds, including Mr Widodo," said Dr Ujang.

There have also been talks that Mr Widodo might join the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) – a political party that is led by his younger son, Mr Kaesang Pangarep.

But Dr Yohanes believes that the "most suitable position would indeed be within Golkar" for Mr Widodo to continue to play a significant role in Indonesian politics.

"This is because Golkar holds a strong position in the House of Representatives unlike, for example, PSI, which even if it manages to pass the 4 per cent threshold, remains just that, a 4 per cent party," said Dr Yohanes, referring to the threshold in the national legislative election where a party needs to gain at least 4 per cent of the total national vote.

Should they fail to do so, the party would forfeit their seats in the national legislature.

However, the PSI appears to no longer be electorally viable for Mr Widodo, as the party is unlikely to cross the parliamentary threshold of 4 per cent needed to enter the House of Representatives.

As of the latest count on March 6, the party is hovering at around 3 per cent of the votes. The electoral commission has stopped publishing the graph of the election results.

Need for new political shelter

Ultimately, Dr Ujang believes that a potential move to Golkar is a way for Mr Widodo to secure himself and his interests after stepping down as president.

"(Joining a new party) ensures he has a 'fortress as a shelter' to avoid problems after leaving office. Mr Jokowi has many political enemies. There is potential for Mr Jokowi to be targeted if he lacks power as his shield," he said.

Dr Ujang further added that Mr Widodo has support in the form of the Golkar party.

"It is crucial to maintain influence and power because in Indonesia, even a former president may not be respected anymore. The dynamics of Mr Prabowo's government will heavily depend on Mr Widodo's position in Golkar. If he only serves in the patron or advisory board, his influence (is) likely to be limited," he said.

And on the potential fallout with PDI-P, Dr Ujang told CNA that Mr Widodo has already lost interest in his current party.

"Mr Widodo, through his actions, words, and beliefs, is already not with, and indifferent to, PDI-P. It's evident that (he) has parted ways with PDI-P.

"So, it wouldn't be surprising if Mr Widodo eventually joins Golkar because he needs a new 'home' to secure himself, his family, and his political interests after no longer holding office," he said.

Dr Yohanes from Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani believes that Mr Widodo will remain in PDI-P until he is expelled.

"I suspect Mr Widodo won't resign from PDI-P because he wants to maintain the possibility of taking over the party, or at least as a way to provoke Mdm Megawati. I think Mdm Megawati is smart enough not to want to give the impression that Mr Widodo is being politically persecuted or bullied by firing him," said Dr Yohanes.

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-joko-widodo-jokowi-golkar-political-party-pdip-419192