Yustinus Paat, Jakarta – The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) are expected to play opposition roles in the future administration of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, according to Arya Budi, Director of Research at Poltracking Indonesia.
According to the pollster's calculations, the coalition could encompass two-thirds of the seats in the parliament, leaving only two parties in the opposition.
"There are two parties likely to be outside the government, namely PKS and PDI-P," he mentioned in an interview with B-TV on Thursday.
Prabowo is on the verge of becoming Indonesia's next president based on preliminary results from the General Elections Commission (KPU). The current government has already laid foundations for Prabowo's 2025 program, such as the Rp 400 trillion free lunch program, in the latest cabinet meeting.
According to Arya, the current ruling party and the party with potentially the most votes in the legislative election, PDI-P, seems reluctant to align with Prabowo's administration due to Gibran's candidacy as his running mate. This contradicts PDI-P's earlier decision to endorse Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD in the 2024 Presidential Election.
Gibran and his father, current President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, are still members of PDI-P to this day despite going against PDI-P in the election. While Jokowi is perceived as a robust supporter of Prabowo, he has never openly declared his endorsement for any specific candidate.
Arya mentioned that Gibran's candidacy worsened the strained relations between Jokowi, PDI-P, and Chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri over time.
"Secondly, it is somewhat challenging to imagine PKS joining the administration because ideologically, PKS does not want to lose its supporters who are anti-Jokowi and Prabowo," he added.
On the other hand, Arya suggested that other parties, such as the National Democratic Party (Nasdem), the National Awakening Party (PKB), and the United Development Party (PPP), are likely to join the Prabowo-Gibran government coalition. Nasdem, in particular, has signaled potential alignment through a recent meeting between Chairman Surya Paloh and President Joko Widodo. Given Surya Paloh's closeness to Prabowo, stemming from their shared background in the Golkar Party, Arya believes Nasdem's inclusion is highly probable.
"We all know there was a meeting between Surya Paloh and Jokowi. That makes it highly likely that Nasdem will join, even though they and PKB expressed dissatisfaction with the election survey results of presidential candidate Anies Baswedan that they support," Arya explained.
Regarding PKB, Arya suggested its inclination to join the Prabowo-Gibran coalition, citing its historical association with government roles and the absence of any record of PKB being outside the government. He pointed out that negotiations with PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar would likely lead to PKB's inclusion in the administration.
"PKB has almost no history outside the government. Since the presidential election in 2004, it has almost always been part of the government. The probability of PKB joining the Prabowo-Gibran coalition is high, even though in the 2024 Presidential Election, PKB distanced itself quite significantly from Jokowi. In fact, in the VP debate, Cak Imin did not hesitate to criticize the Jokowi administration," he stated.
Regarding PPP, Arya noted its position is similar to PKB, having never been outside the government. However, he mentioned that the PPP's fate in terms of parliamentary representation is uncertain, as quick count results from Poltracking indicate PPP's vote share is still below 4 percent.
"PPP is similar to PKB, rarely being outside the government. According to our quick count, PPP is still below 4 percent, but in the KPU real count, PPP is almost at 4 percent. If they have seats in parliament, it will enhance their bargaining position," Arya said.
According to the latest KPU data, PPP has 3.97 percent of votes, below the 4 percent parliamentary threshold, but there are votes from around 300,000 polling stations that have yet to be tallied.
According to Arya, if Nasdem, PKB, and PPP join the Prabowo-Gibran government coalition, they will dominate the parliament. This political strength, especially in parliament, will facilitate the realization of planned programs by Prabowo-Gibran, as there will be no political hindrances.
"Political support will not encounter obstacles because after the election, there is post-election politics related to the composition of the government coalition. According to our analysis, it seems that politically there will be no difficulties in advancing iconic programs, such as the free lunch program," Arya said.
PDI-P signaled last month that it might adopt the role of the opposition in the future government. Hasto Kristiyanto, the secretary-general of PDI-P, said the party may "stay out of the government" if Prabowo is confirmed as the elected president.
"In PDI-P's experience, we excluded ourselves from the government in 2004 and 2009," Hasto told journalists in Central Jakarta, referring to the year when PDI-P Chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri was defeated by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the presidential election.
Prabowo-Gibran Government Coalition:
Golkar: 15.18 percent vote share
Gerindra: 13.34 percent vote share
Democratic Party: 7.41 percent vote share
PAN: 7.27 percent vote share
Nasdem: 9.24 percent vote share
PKB: 10.89 percent vote share
PPP: 3.84 percent vote share
Total: 67.17 percent vote share
Opposition:
PDIP: 16.64 percent vote share
PKS: 8.17 percent vote share
Total: 24.81 percent vote share