Erwida Maulia, Jakarta – Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto scored a commanding lead in Indonesia's presidential vote, but his party disappointed in the parliamentary election held the same day, raising the prospect of a bloated cabinet consisting of multiple parties that could render his administration ineffective, analysts say.
As many as 18 political parties joined Wednesday's national legislative election, dispatching around 9,900 candidates vying for 580 seats in the House of Representatives.
Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement, or Gerindra, finished third, collecting just around 13% of the vote, after the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) with about 17%, and the Golkar Party with roughly 15%, according to unofficial quick counts by polling firms. Gerindra showed a slight improvement from its 2019 election outcome but fell short of expectations after recent surveys suggested it was tied with PDI-P to secure a nearly 20% vote.
Analysts see this as showing Indonesian voters' tendency to vote for individual figures while having low loyalty to political parties in general, as well as better structures in older parties like PDI-P and Golkar, resulting in their stronger legislative candidates' lineups.
"The presidential vote relies on the popularity... of the candidates. In legislative elections, apart from party images, parties also rely on their legislative candidates," Adjie Alfaraby, director at local pollster LSI Denny JA, said on Thursday.
The four main parties backing Prabowo – Golkar, Gerindra, the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party – are predicted to have between 42% and 43% of the votes combined. Prabowo, therefore, will have to invite one or two other parties into his coalition to get majority seats in the parliament. Otherwise, he will face difficulties in getting his government's budget plans and important bills approved.
He already signaled the move, saying during his speech claiming victory on Wednesday night, "Now that the campaign is over, we must reunite [and] collaborate for the people of Indonesia." His running mate Gibran Rakabuming, son of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, went a step further, saying he was seeking to meet soon with the two rival camps.
Hanta Yuda, executive director of Poltracking Indonesia, a local pollster, thinks Prabowo will likely invite the National Awakening Party and or the Nasdem Party to join his coalition. Both are former members of Jokowi's ruling coalition before they split apart to declare support for former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan's presidential bid this time.
Yuda thinks PDI-P "will likely become an opposition," citing a recent statement by a senior PDI-P politician. Jokowi and Gibran are still formally members of PDI-P, but their rift has grown since Prabowo declared Gibran as his running mate in October. Despite having not openly declared his support, Jokowi is widely seen as backing Prabowo, while PDI-P supports former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo.
"Ultimately, [Prabowo] is likely to have a majority, as other parties will probably join his coalition," Peter Mumford and Melissya Sitopu of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note. "Watchpoints include cabinet appointments, the makeup of Prabowo's coalition, and the residual influence of Jokowi."
Wen Chong Cheah, a research analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note on Thursday: "With the PDI-P on course to remain the largest single party in parliament, we believe Mr. Prabowo will offer some ministerial roles to that party, to ensure its support in parliament," adding that Prabowo would "retain Jokowi's 'big tent' approach to consolidate support," which will entail the inclusion of several parties, including opposition, in his administration.
Observers have previously pointed out the ineffectiveness of Jokowi's cabinet, with ministers going in and out in the past five years and mismatches between the cabinet positions and professional backgrounds of the ministers, many of whom are political appointees. Most of Jokowi's cabinet ministers represent seven political parties controlling 80% of the seats in the House that eventually joined his coalition, including Prabowo's Gerindra, despite he and Jokowi being rivals in the 2014 and 2019 presidential races.
Over the short term, "residual anger" within PDI-P at Jokowi's "betrayal" for his support for Prabowo means "there is still a risk of ministerial resignations" during the transition period before Indonesia's new president and vice president are sworn in on Oct. 20, the Eurasia analysts said.