Burhanuddin Muhtadi – Surveys prior to election day can reveal a lot but not everything, including whether Indonesia will know who its next president is by next week or in late June.

Days before Indonesians vote for their next president, a cliffhanger situation is unfolding. Credible polls now show that the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka team is comfortably ahead with an "electability" rating of about 48 to 52 per cent against the other two candidate pairs, who are trailing in the mid-20 per cent range. What is unclear is whether Prabowo will be able to win outright in one round or forced into a run-off in late June. (Indonesian electoral law stipulates that if no candidate can surpass a national vote of 50 per cent plus 1, including 20 per cent of the vote in at least half of Indonesia's 38 provinces, a run-off election will be held.)

Too many factors are at play to accurately predict whether there will be one or two rounds. Those who believe in an outright win are basing their analysis on data from various public opinion surveys showing that support for Prabowo might have increased throughout January 2024.

In December 2023, Indikator reported Prabowo's electability to be 45.8 per cent, which rose to 48.6 per cent in mid-January. At the end of January, a poll by a different pollster, LSI Denny JA, showed Prabowo's rating to be 50.7 per cent. According to a survey conducted in early February by a reputable poll taker, Populi, Prabowo's electability had increased to 52.5 per cent.

Some believe this trend will continue until 14 February, voting day, especially as President Joko Widodo whose oldest son Gibran is Prabowo's running mate has launched a populist policy package. In a move criticised by some as biased and reportedly done without involving the relevant minister, Widodo authorised a three-month lump sum of direct cash assistance (of Rp 600,000, about US$38) to be distributed to needy Indonesians in early February. This was given out along with an extra 10 kilogrammes of rice per recipient. Meanwhile, an announcement of an eight per cent salary increase for central and regional civil servants, military, and police personnel was made, and for their retired counterparts, an increase of 12 per cent in their pensions.

The opposition to Prabowo still holds hopes of a two-round election. It is unlikely that Prabowo-Gibran have surpassed the 50 per cent threshold for their electability.

While imperfect, surveys can predict the likelihood of one versus two rounds of voting. Recent surveys indicate that the probability of a single round might be increasing but pre-election surveys depend on complex, dynamic parameters with many variables involved. (In statistics, these are called random parameters.) A key determinant is the substantial group of swing and undecided voters. For instance, a mid-January Indikator survey found that 13.1 per cent of those with an electoral preference for a particular candidate were still very likely to change their vote. This casts uncertainty on voting day.

Another unknown is how undecided voters will vote. The same Indikator survey showed that a month prior to voting day, 5.7 per cent of respondents had not decided for whom they would vote. If these undecided voters are distributed proportionally, Prabowo could possibly win in one round. However, previous elections show that undecided voters tend to flock to candidates perceived as the main opposition to the incumbent.

In 2019, in the month prior to the election, an Indikator survey showed the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin pairing at 55.4 per cent electability, while Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno received 37.4 per cent, with undecided voters at 7.2 per cent. The actual election results showed that almost all the undecided voters had flocked to Prabowo's camp. If this pattern repeats itself in 2024, Anies Baswedan, now perceived as the main opposition to the incumbent Widodo who supports Prabowo-Gibran, will gain an advantage.

Anies' advantage is vis-a-vis not just Prabowo but also Ganjar Pranowo, whose polling numbers have not recovered since the campaign pairs were announced.

The final factor is the turnout rate of each candidate pair's supporters on election day. If survey respondents do not act on their political preferences (unlike passively answering a survey when telephoned or visited face-to-face by pollsters) to cast their vote in person, this latent support will not materialise into actual votes.

One's age may influence participation in voting. While this could affect all three candidates' shares, it might affect Prabowo-Gibran the most, as their campaign has targeted younger and first-time voters with cartoon versions of the candidates on billboards and posters, social media, and stumping using Prabowo's "gemoy" image. The gap in voter turnout rate, at least in the previous election, as a Center for Strategic and International Studies (Jakarta) Cyrus Network (CSIS-CN) exit poll held on 17 April 2019 found, was 41.9 per cent for those aged 17-35 years old compared to 58.9 per cent for voters aged over 35 years old.

If this pattern repeats itself in 2024, especially since election day falls on Valentine's Day, Prabowo's actual electability, projected to depend heavily on young or first-time voters, will be adversely affected. This opens the opportunity for two rounds of election. This Gen-Z and Millennial paradox is where the two generational groups will form the largest cohort of Indonesian voters (56 per cent, according to the official Permanent Voter List) yet present a challenge, given their notoriously low turnout (compared to older voters).

However, if voter abstentions are distributed proportionally across all supporters of all three presidential candidates, then an outright victory is still open for Prabowo.

If Prabowo fails to win in one round, in this author's view, Anies seems to be the candidate with a bigger prospect of advancing to a second round. He seems to be gaining electoral momentum, as reflected in many polls. His campaign has been using social media and other methods as effective campaign tools. His team launched innovations like the "Challenge Anies" (Desak Anies) events, where young audience members can ask him any question in person (which are livestreamed on TikTok), as well as the "Anies Bubble" (an X and Instagram fan account that features Anies looking like a Korean pop star), and others, which have generated much enthusiasm.

Referring to the factors above, a certainty is that Indonesia's pre-election polls have not concluded whether the upcoming election will take place in one round or two. Let the voters decide.

[Burhanuddin Muhtadi is Visiting Fellow in the Indonesia Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, and Senior Lecturer at Islamic State University (UIN) Syarif Hidayatullah.]

Source: https://fulcrum.sg/indonesias-presidential-election-the-limitations-of-surveys-on-electability