Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – The first round of the 2024 election debates organized by the General Elections Commission (KPU) took place on Tuesday, following the latest survey results that showed nearly 29 percent of the respondents remained undecided about their choice for the Feb. 14 election.
The results of the survey by leading daily Kompas, one of the most reliable and known for its independence, indicate that the debates carry high stakes, as how these encounters play out could sway undecided voters.
The 2024 debates might lack depth, however, since participants are given limited time to answer questions. Still they give voters a glimpse at the candidates' personality and character, their communication skills and how they handle pressure.
At Tuesday's two-hour debate, Prabowo Subianto appeared uneasy and sweaty as he struggled to recite his memorized talking points. Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan came across as more eloquent speakers, as they were more articulate in answering questions from either their rivals or the debate panel.
While Prabowo either went overtime and was rudely cut off by moderators, or gave short answers that elicited a reminder from moderators that he had more time, Anies effectively used his allotted time, almost to the second. Ganjar delivered sharp and succinct responses, but at times fell far short of the allotted time.
Defense Minister Prabowo is leading in all opinion surveys, including the latest from Kompas, with former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo coming in at a distant second and third, respectively.
Most surveys suggest that the number of undecided voters is too small to have any impact on the election, so the Kompas survey sparked heated debate over its differing results. It has also raised hope among Anies and Ganjar's supporters that either could still pull off an upset win in February.
The KPU has scheduled five debate rounds, comprising three rounds featuring presidential candidates and two rounds featuring their running mates, with each round covering different topics. At the inaugural round on Tuesday, the presidential candidates spoke about their stances on law, human rights, government, corruption eradication and strengthening democracy.
Prabowo, a former Army general, was forced to take a defensive posture when he was asked about his plan to resolve pending cases of human rights abuses, including the 13 activists who went missing in 1998, the final year of the Soeharto regime. They were among the dozens of activists abducted by the Army's Special Forces (Kopassus), which was under Prabowo's command at the time, and while most were released, these 13 activists are presumed dead. Several Kopassus officers were indicted over the incident. And while Prabowo was cleared of any wrongdoing, he was honorably discharged from the military in 1999 for insubordination.
During Tuesday's debate, Prabowo reiterated that he had answered the same question each time he ran for president (in 2014 and 2019), and pointed out that several former activists of the 1998 student movement had joined his Gerindra Party. He did not answer Ganjar's question about the location of the missing activists' graves.
What's more
Anies was asked about his record in respecting the rights of religious minorities to build places of worship, a question that alluded to his connection to the now banned radical Islamic Defenders Front (FPI). Anies has been stigmatized over his association with the Islamist group, which helped him win the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2017.
In his response, the former governor cited figures on the places of worship that had opened during his tenure in 2017-2019. He said the figures topped the record of any other Jakarta governor either preceding or succeeding him, adding that many backlogged applications to build churches had been resolved during his term.
Ganjar asked about Anies' opposition to the plan to relocate the nation's capital from Jakarta to Nusantara, currently under development in a forested area in East Kalimantan. In his response, Anies pointed out that the Nusantara Capital City (IKN) Law was endorsed by the House of Representatives without extensive public participation.
Anies came across as the most aggressive speaker in Tuesday's debate, while Prabowo as a stalwart defender of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's administration. Ganjar restrained himself from attacking Jokowi's record, given that he is a member of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in the President's coalition government.
While it is unclear how much the 2024 election debates might influence voters' choices, the first round did not deliver much in terms of substance. Tuesday's inaugural debate was more like a TV show, with participants struggling to answer often complicated questions within the strictly enforced time limit. But given that four rounds still remain and even if they sway only a small number of voters, the debates could prove decisive in the closely contested election. In 2014, Jokowi won by a small margin against Prabowo, though an unpublished survey a week before the polls showed that Prabowo had the edge. Many analysts believe that Jokowi's winning the final presidential debate that year, as well as a huge rock concert in Jakarta on the last day of the campaign season, helped him clinch the presidency.
Earlier, the KPU had been embroiled in controversy over the rules of the 2024 debates, particularly regarding the vice presidential debates. It was agreed that presidential candidates could accompany their running mates in the two VP debate rounds, but only the running mates may speak. Past debates featured either the running mates on their own or the candidate pairs together, taking turns answering the questions.
The new rule seems intended to accommodate Prabowo's running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the 36-year-old mayor of Surakarta in Central Java and Jokowi's eldest son, who will face much more seasoned politicians in the VP debate rounds: Anies' running mate Muhaimin Iskandar, 57, the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PKB), and Ganjar's running mate Mahfud MD, 66, the coordinating political, legal and security affairs minister.
Gibran had turned down invitations to appear in debates organized by universities, saying he would only attend the formal debates organized by the KPU. But Muhaimin and Mahfud accepted their invitations to campus debates, using them as test runs to prepare for the KPU debates.
A viral video taken during Tuesday's debate shows Gibran in the background, leading supporters in cheering Prabowo.
The remaining four rounds of the KPU debates are scheduled for Dec. 22, 2023 (VP debate), Jan. 7, 2024 (presidential debate), Jan. 21 (VP) and Feb. 4 (final presidential debate).
What we've heard
The General Election Commission (KPU) has agreed to organize five official debates for presidential and vice-presidential candidates, three sessions for the former and two for the latter. The debate format became a subject of controversy as initially, the KPU removed debate sessions for vice-presidential candidates.
According to some politicians present in the meeting to formulate the debates, the current debate concept was proposed by the KPU commissioners. One of the provisions was that candidate pairs must attend the vice-presidential debate session. "There was no agreement among the campaign teams, but the KPU announced the format," said the source.
Representatives of the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka ticket were reported to have agreed with KPU's proposal. This included the idea that candidates would only present their visions and missions without a question-and-answer session. After protests from representatives of other candidates, the Prabowo-Gibran representatives accepted the format. "Finally, it was agreed to follow the last format, with responses from the other presidential candidates," said the source.
Two sources said they suspected attempts to intervene in the talks to determine the debate format. Among other indications included the KPU's foot-dragging move to decide the format, the debate themes which were decided close to the event, and the belated search for panelists. "In the past, a few days before the debate began, there was already a buzz about the theme, moderator, and debate location," said a source.
[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]