Antara, Jakarta – An epidemiologist from the University of Indonesia's School of Public Health (FKM UI), Iwan Ariawan, opined that the long year-end holiday has the potential to increase COVID-19 cases if the risk is not anticipated.
"Long holidays followed by rising people's mobility and poor compliance with the health protocols pose a high risk of a spike in cases," said Iwan on Friday, September 24.
Iwan added that poor case tracking, low coverage of vaccination, and the existence of new virus variants could also boost the number of positive cases.
Many experts predicted a surge in COVID-19 hitting the country from December to January following rising public mobility and crowds during long holidays. "People only realize or regret the situation after it happened," Iwan said.
The COVID-19 third wave, he argued, could be prevented. He demanded the government not to hesitate to rise the public mobility restrictions (PPKM) level in high-risk areas.
The potential for the third wave would still exist even though the vaccination was expected to be 50 percent completed before December 2021. "Because no vaccine is 100 percent effective and the vaccine's effectivity can be lowered if there is a new variant," Iwan explained.
Professor at the University of Indonesia School of Medicine (FK UI), Tjandra Yoga Aditama, also said crowds were often followed by an increased risk of cases. He suggested the government remind the public about the potential for a COVID-19 surge after a long holiday as occurred in Singapore even though more than 80 percent of the population had been vaccinated.