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A man at peace, Prabowo makes his case on economy, Jokowi

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Jakarta Globe - September 26, 2013

Rebecca Lake – Presidential hopeful Prabowo Subianto has outlined his commitment to stabilize the nation's faltering economy, but as his popularity rises analysts question whether the former military leader is capable of distancing himself from his nationalistic aspirations and allegations of grave human rights abuses.

Speaking to a packed meeting with foreign correspondents in Jakarta on Wednesday, the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) founder outlined his plan to "face Indonesia's problems."

Through a series of measures including proposed subsidy cuts in the oil and gas sector, an increase in the tax ratio and budget tightening, Prabowo proposed state savings of $116 billion dollars. "We are wasting $100 billion of our money every year. So, if we can improve, Indonesia will be an attractive place to invest," he said.

Known for his nationalistic approach to economic policy Prabowo emphasized his commitment to "uphold Indonesia's national interests" but made it clear that this does not necessarily translate into protectionist policies.

"Nationalization can be detrimental to Indonesian national interests," he said, acknowledging the importance of foreign investment. "We must compete. But how can we compete if the starting level is so lopsided?" Prabowo said, outlining his plan to create a stable and attractive investment environment through clean governance and good management.

"Unless we achieve effective governance than I think Indonesia is in danger of becoming a failed state," the 61-year-old former army general said.

Revrisond Baswir, an economist at Gadjah Mada University, said it is possible Prabowo could achieve his $116 billion goal but said "there is no guarantee."

The government has set aside about Rp 300 trillion ($26 billion) in fuel and electricity subsidies for this year's state budget – not taking into account June's subsidized fuel price increases, which were meant to help reduce the strain on expenses.

"It's not about the numbers, it's about his vision on what kind of economy he will develop," Revrisond said, questioning the amount of indirect costs needed to achieve such a target.

The economist also pointed to concerns of Prabowo's notoriously nationalistic mantra, warning that, as with previous candidates, promises do not always amount to concrete policies. "His promises could be forgotten and were simply developed as ideas for the purpose of campaigning," he said.

Aleksius Jemadu, dean of Pelita Harapan University's School of Government and Global Affairs, highlighted Indonesia's reliance on foreign investment, saying that "Prabowo must be careful" about the tone on nationalism.

"We live in an increasingly interdependent world, so if you are too strong on your nationalistic view, you will prevent investment," he said. However, Prabowo's patriotism is clearly also working in his favor, Aleksius said, at least when it comes to generating votes.

"It's the way he wants to make his campaign unique and appear different to other candidates," Aleksius said. He labeled Prabowo's approach as a "populist strategy" by playing on the increasing discrepancy of wealth within the population of more than 240 million people.

Yet even as Prabowo's clout begins to rise – to date he has 3.1 million followers on Facebook, many of them below the age of 35 – he faces a serious threat to his "unique" populist campaign.

"His main rival will be Jokowi because he is also going to introduce a policy that benefits the grassroots levels," Aleksius said, referring to the nickname of Joko Widodo who Prabowo supported as Jakarta governor.

Recent polls indicate that the two are the most likely to win the battle for the top job. According to the Alvara Research Center's survey conducted in July, Joko holds the strategic position over Prabowo as the candidate most eligible and electable among the public, earning 24.8 percent in eligibility and 22.1 percent in electability. Meanwhile, Prabowo had 18.8 percent in eligibility and 17 percent in electability.

Speaking of his likely rival, Prabowo admitted to being surprised by the Joko phenomenon and the governor's popular backing. "Politics is very dynamic. A friend two weeks ago could suddenly be a friend on the other side of the spectrum," he said.

One obvious competitive advantage Joko has over his competitor is a clean human rights record.

Prabowo has long dismissed the extent of his involvement in the 1998 forced disappearance of pro-democracy activists. He has also been accused of human rights abuses in East Timor and violence against student protesters during his time in the military. Due to these allegations, which has seen the presidential candidate barred from entering the United States, many commentators and rights groups have questioned his commitment to human rights if he were to take office.

Bonar Tigor Naipospos, the deputy chairman of the Setara Institute, a Jakarta-based human rights group, said it would be ideal if Prabowo could clear the air by clarifying his role in the 1998 riots.

However, Bonar doubted that Prabowo's lingering legacy of human rights accusations will affect his campaign and popularity, at least not in Indonesia. "It gives Indonesia a bad international image, but domestically it's different. Indonesian people have short memories," Bonar said.

As for Prabowo's commitment to human rights, Bonar said that circumstances now are different and whoever is elected will need to contend with stronger law enforcement organizations and civil society groups as well as the media.

Speaking at the press conference Prabowo responded to questions of his past, saying that "accusations are part of the political game" and that there are always going to be certain groups who will "demonize" his character. "I'm at peace with myself and proud of my record... I come from a long line of Indonesian patriots, so I am confident that the Indonesian people will decide," he said.

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