Markus Junianto Sihaloho & Carlos Paath – The country's main opposition party has given its strongest indication yet that it may nominate Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo as its presidential candidate next year, ahead of a key national caucus that gets underway this weekend.
Puan Maharani, a senior member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), said on Tuesday that the caucus that begins this Friday will discuss, among other things, the criteria for the party's presidential candidate. She added that with the election just 10 months away, the PDI-P needed to determine what kind of leader it wanted to put forward.
"What's going to come up [at the meeting] are the names of the potential candidates," she said. "Of course Joko is one of the PDI-P members whose name crops up daily [as a presidential candidate], so of course we will take him into consideration."
Puan did not say whether her mother, Megawati Sukarnoputri, the PDI-P chairwoman, would also be considered for a run at the presidency, but stressed that she would have the final say on who the party's candidate would be. "This is all about evaluating the political dynamics so that we can determine when and who [to nominate]," she said.
Arya Fernandes, an analyst with the think tank Charta Politika, said the party's upcoming national caucus would be important in determining how the PDI-P approached the issue of the election over the next several months.
"This meeting is the right time for the PDI-P to show which potential candidate Megawati supports," he said. "It will be an important opportunity for Megawati to declare once and for all whether she still wants to run."
The PDI-P has been coy on the question of its candidate for the 2014 presidential election, even as opinion polls continue to affirm Joko as being the most popular contender by far.
Observers say that in deference to Megawati, who ran in and lost the last three elections, the PDI-P must make a show of conducting a thorough selection process before it can finally give the nod to Joko – with Megawati's blessings.
"My prediction is that the PDI-P won't come out of this caucus with a clear declaration of its candidate. It will only give a signal," Arya said. He added it would be inconceivable for the party not to seriously consider putting Joko on its ticket, given his immense popularity and universal name recognition.
Tubagus Hasanuddin, a veteran PDI-P legislator and the chairman of the party's West Java chapter, acknowledged that Joko was a huge asset to the party. "He's going to be a vote-getter in 2014, so this is obviously something we'll have to consider," he said.
Puan also acknowledged Joko's high poll ratings, but said the party's candidate would also have to be someone who was widely respected by the PDI-P's regional chapters as much as the voters.
"We're not just looking at the results of the polls, but also the input from each of our 33 provincial chapters," she said. Even then, she added, the final decision would be up to Megawati.
Puan, who has also been touted as a potential candidate, said she would go along with the selection process if called upon by the party. "Anyone can be freely nominated, and as a member I will abide with the party mechanism [for choosing a candidate]," she said.
With Joko looking increasingly likely to win the PDI-P's nomination, officials from other parties have begun speculating about possible tie-ups with their own presidential candidates.
Aburizal Bakrie, the chairman and declared candidate from the Golkar Party, said last week that he could possibly run with Joko, although he indicated that the governor would be his running mate.
This appears a highly unlikely scenario, however. Not only does Aburizal trail in the polls to Joko, but he also faces mounting opposition from within his own party over his candidacy.
Golkar stalwart Akbar Tandjung has repeatedly called into question the party's decision to rule out any other candidate but Aburizal, while polls suggest that the former chairman, Jusuf Kalla, would be a far more popular choice.
Ray Rangkuti, the director of the Indonesian Civic Network (Lima), said Joko and Kalla would make the ideal pair, with Kalla having already experienced a successful stint as vice president in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's first term.
Ray said that put together, the pair would comprise the crowd-pleasing idealistic candidate, represented by Joko, and the no-nonsense state administrator getting things done, a role in which Kalla had long proven adept. "You would get a balance between idealism and pragmatism," Ray said.
He added that Joko's current rise mirrored that of Yudhoyono ahead of the 2004 election, when the non-establishment retired general was emerging as the popular choice to take on the likes of Megawati, retired general Wiranto and the other holdovers from the Suharto era.
Given the similarity, he said, Kalla would be the ideal choice for a vice presidential candidate, having already proven successful in an identical supporting role for Yudhoyono.
Ray also said that unlike many of the other candidates vying for prominence, both Joko and Kalla had clean track records and had managed to remain free of corruption allegations. This, combined with Joko's record for promoting clean governance and Kalla's knack for getting things done, would prove to be a key advantage for the pair, Ray said.
"These two figures won't have problems in terms of fighting corruption or improving welfare," he said. "With their mix of pragmatism and idealism, this is a ticket that should be seriously considered."
However, not everyone is convinced that Joko should run. Fadli Zon, a deputy chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), which backed Joko's gubernatorial bid last year, said the PDI-P owed his party a favor.
"In 2009, we supported Megawati," he said, referring to the decision by Prabowo Subianto, the founder and chief patron of Gerindra, to run as the PDI-P chairwoman's running mate. "So in 2014, we hope that Megawati will support Prabowo."
Prior to Joko's arrival on the scene, Prabowo was considered the front-runner to win next year's election. But Puan refuted the notion that her party was beholden to Gerindra, saying the choice of its presidential candidate did not hinge on what other parties wanted.