Markus Junianto Sihaloho, Robertus Wardi & Anastasia Wienanti Resardhy – Presidential hopefuls without the backing of one of Indonesia's political dynasties appear to stand little chance of winning next year's race, as members of the Sukarno, Suharto and Wibowo networks position themselves for office.
Christianto Wibisono, leader of the Indonesia Presidential Institute (IKI), said forces aligned to founding president Sukarno were gathering behind Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) led by Sukarno's daughter Megawati Sukarnoputri, herself a former president.
"Jokowi is not a figure from the dynasty but Megawati could rely on him if she is wise enough to turn him into Goh Chok Tong while preparing a Sukarno grandchild," Christianto said in Jakarta on Friday. Goh served as prime minister of Singapore from 1990 to 2004, taking over from founding president Lee Kwan Yew before being replaced by Lee Hsien Loong, the son of Lee.
Christianto said that although the family of late former president Suharto does not include a prospective candidate, the Wiranto-Hary Tanoesoedibjo ticket endorsed by the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) has close ties to the family. "Wiranto and Hary Tanoe had close ties with Cendana [the family base in Menteng, Central Jakarta]," he said.
The dynasty of Sarwo Edhie Wibowo, a late former military leader under Suharto, is represented by his son Pramono Edhie Wibowo, a former Army chief of staff seeking the candidacy of the Democratic Party. Pramono's sister Ani is married to Democratic Party chairman and incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
"Presidential candidates outside a dynasty, except for Jokowi, do not have an impressive popularity yet," he said.
Christianto said that Aburizal Bakrie, who despite being the chairman of the Golkar Party and himself part of a corporate dynasty, still polled poorly.
He said that Prabowo Subianto, a former military leader and founder of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), and Hatta Rajasa, a government minister from the National Mandate Party (PAN), would face electoral difficulties because their parties' low level of public support meant they would struggle to achieve the threshold to gain a spot on the presidential ballot paper. (Hatta's daughter in 2011 married the Yudhoyono's son.)
Christianto said CT Corp leader Chairul Tanjung, State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan and Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan would struggle to beat Pramono for the nomination at the Democratic Party convention.
Tjipta Lesmana, professor of political communications at Pelita Harapan University, said the presidential and vice presidential candidates who have emerged so far would bring little meaningful change to the country.
Tjipta said Prabowo was a visionary, but had a problematic human rights record. He described the former military leader as someone that would do anything to get his way, potentially making him dangerous.
The academic predicted that Megawati would suffer another defeat if she ran for office, while Puan Maharani, her daugher, is not ready for the presidency or vice presidency, he said.
Tjipta said Aburizal was a weak candidate due to the Sidoarjo mudslides of 2006, in which drilling work of his company Lapindo Brantas was widely blamed, even though his Golkar was one of the three most popular parties.
Jusuf Kalla, who served as vice president from 2004 to 2009, has proven leadership abilities, but at 72 come the election could be considered too old, Tjipta said.
The Hanura pair were described as weak because Wiranto has made little impact on national debate, while Hary, a media tycoon, is new to politics.
"We all know why Wiranto took the risk. Before Hary [joined], Hanura's finances were in dire straits. Now we also know why Hary quit the National Democratic Party. It's because Surya Paloh [the founder of NasDem and fellow media mogul] would not give up the vice presidential position that he wanted," Tjipta said.
Regarding the Demoratic Party battle between Gita and Pramono, Tjipta said Yudhoyono would probably choose Pramono over the Harvard-educated minister. "SBY would have chosen Gita Wirjawan, but he will certainly choose Pramono due to the family ties. Gita Wirjawan is very intelligent but it is feared that if he became president he would adopt pro-Washington policies."
Tjipta said Joko, who has yet to declare his intention to seek national office, is the strongest candidate. If he became president, his deputy Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, also known as Ahok, would succeed him as Jakarta governor. "Ahok is good but temperamental, very impulsive. As a leader he should contain himself. If he leads Jakarta, the projects would stall and the people would blame Jokowi for it and that could pose a major problem."
But PDI-P deputy secretary general Ahmad Basarah said Megawati would decide whether Joko runs for president, adding that the party's congress decided she would have the final say.
Joko and Basuki were supported by Prabowo in their 2012 gubernatorial bid.