Ati Nurbaiti, Baucau/Ermera/Dili – The UN mission in Timor Leste is closing down next month and at least 1,000 local staffers are seeking other means of income. Already, some residents are seeing the usual signs of unrest, while others see the perceived tensions as paranoia.
"People have been losing cattle almost daily in Viqueque," says Rosito Belo of his home district. Cattle is among the main investments, with buffalo priced around US$1,000 and adult pigs fetching $300.
Sparks could fly, says Belo, a staffer at the Hak Foundation, an NGO on human rights, especially since losers in the April presidential election are still disappointed, and their local leaders could feasibly whip up and cause trouble.
Unemployment and poverty, failure to see campaign pledges delivered, and the widening gap of the nouveau rich and poor, are among the issues that resemble time bombs, local residents say.
Resentment against veterans collecting pensions on a monthly basis up to a total annual sum of $600 million from the state budget are another source of trouble.
Lashing out at his fellow veterans, President Taur Matan Ruak said, "They are given monthly pensions and contribute nothing," reports in late October said. He added he would lobby the government to stop the allowances – but former guerrilla leader and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao himself had granted veterans' entitlement to pensions and also to projects.
The capital, Dili, will soon have its streets cleared of roadside stalls, from those selling gadgets to rice, secondhand clothes and chickens – adding to expected unemployment in the following months.
Frustrated locals say highly charismatic leaders, mainly Gusmao, are unable to settle rifts and most importantly, cannot rein in creeping corruption, collusion and nepotism (KKN) that the country's former occupier, Indonesia, is still noted for.
"The reckless KKN and threat of higher unemployment, with high expectations and political rivalry, are a ticking time bomb," a businessman said. Other Dili residents say the Timorese are still jumpy over any sign of unrest, and tend to react over mere rumors.
Sources say there is unnecessary waste through KKN, ending in shoddy projects, on top of large projects beyond the needs of the country.
Of a new power project in the Hera hills near Dili, another said, "It could even cater for Kupang," in neighboring Indonesia's East Nusa Tenggara province, with 300 megawatts, which was much too large for Timor Leste.
Yet a neglected resource is right under the feet of the Timorese, according to the head of the Baucau agricultural office, Amaro Ximenes. Each Timorese male has an inheritance of a plot of land, large or small.
"They go all the way to the UK or Ireland," said Ximenes of a number of migrant workers. "They earn up to $1,500 a month and after all their spending are still left with a few hundred dollars, while they can also earn from planting on their own land."
The head of Cailaco, a Baucau-based NGO for civic education, Augusto Pires, also said agriculture would have to provide a buffer for more unemployment from those relying on roadside businesses, besides those about to lose their UN jobs.
Saldanha, however, criticized the government's handouts of hand tractors for farmers, who had lost much of their cattle in the 1999 rampage. The tractors, never used before, would require repairs after being left idle. Ximenes urged the government to provide agricultural credits to enable farmers to access $1,000 each to prepare for the new season.
The young graduate of agriculture from Brawijaya University in Malang, East Java, was confident that with support and a campaign to consume local produce, Baucau could prosper given its potential in maize, vegetables, sweet potatoes and fruits, apart from rice and candle nuts.
Timor's unreliable coffee supply further exposes farmers to fluctuations in the international coffee trade. Government data shows the average total of arable land planted is at just 45 percent, with a harvest of just once a year, whether it's rice or coffee.
An economy based on oil, agriculture and also tourism and services, and later on industry, would be solid enough for the tiny nation of a little over 1 million people, said economist Saldanha.