Gary LaMoshi, Bali – On October 12, 2002, a ragtag gang of radicals set off a series of bombs here that left 202 people dead, mostly foreign tourists. The attack also shattered preconceptions about Indonesia, the country with the world's largest Muslim population.
Before the blasts at Paddy's Pub and the Sari Club in Kuta Beach, plus the US Consular Agency a dozen kilometers away, Indonesian Muslims were seen as moderate, disengaged bystanders in the conflicts involving the Muslim world.
The bombings prompted a closer examination of Indonesia and its longstanding struggle between secular and Islamist forces, dating back to the nation's founding in 1945. With four presidents in five years, Muslim and Christian militias clashing across the archipelago, rampant poverty and endemic corruption, Indonesia in 2002 made a credible candidate for the world's next failed state.
Tops in anti-terrorism
Ten years later, Indonesia is now solidly in the camp of the world's democracies and an anti-terrorism success story. The record on Muslim extremism, as well as corruption and poverty, is decidedly mixed, but things are far more peaceful than many could have expected in the smoldering aftermath on the Jalan Legian thoroughfare a decade ago.
"After the Bali bombing, it was clear that Indonesia did share in the problems of the South and Southwest Asia," says Greg Barton, the Herb Feith Professor for the Study of Indonesia at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. "The lesson for observers of Indonesia, certainly for Australia, was that the problems of the Middle East could reach Indonesia."
The Bali bombers were part of Jemaah Islamiyah, a group loosely affiliated with Al Qaeda and dedicated to restoration of Islamic rule across Southeast Asia. Its spiritual leader, Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, had been jailed by the authoritarian Suharto regime and then taken refuge in Malaysia.
Barton says that Ba'asyir took advantage of the fall of Suharto in 1998 and the reformasi climate to return to Indonesia and resume his radical preaching, as did many other hard core Islamists.
Clues abound
Ahead of the Bali bombings, there were other instances of Muslim extremist violence, including the Christmas Eve bombings of churches in 2000 and Muslim militias recruited to fight Christians in Ambon and central Sulawesi. But no one then connected the dots to see a radical network capable of large scale violence.
Rohan Gunaratna of Singapore's Nanyang Technological University first sounded the alarm about Al Qaeda's "second front" after the discovery of a terrorist cell planning attacks on US military facilities there but few at the time took his warning seriously. "Gunaratna grossly overstated the threat while others understated it," Barton says.
"The 2002 Bali bombings were quite transformative," Barton notes. "It led to a series of changes." First and foremost, international assistance for anti-terrorism efforts poured into Indonesia, beginning with the bombing investigation. Within weeks, the key members of the plot were under arrest.
With Australia leading the way, the Jakarta Center for Law Enforcement was established to train Indonesia's police. The force had been split from the army after the fall of Suharto and badly needed the dose of self-esteem and professionalism that the successful bombing investigation and skill development provided. Since the Bali bombings, Indonesia has convicted more than 600 terrorists, punctuated by the execution of three of the Bali bombers.
Happiness is a warm gun
Special Detachment 88, funded and trained by US and Australian police, military and intelligence services, has since decimated Jemaah Islamiyah's leadership. In 2009, the unit culminated a lengthy manhunt with the killing of bombing expert Noordin Mohammad Top during a shootout in Central Java. Dulmartin, suspected of triggering one of the Bali bombs by mobile phone, was killed in a Jakarta firefight in 2010.
Densus 88, as it's known in Indonesian, has come under criticism for an apparent shoot-first approach that leaves many suspects dead and therefore unable to provide intelligence. It has also faced allegations of human rights abuses during its operations. Overall, though, Detachment 88 may be the world's most effective anti-terrorism force, at least among the ones known to the public.
"In light of expectations, given a police force that was undertrained and underfunded, Indonesia has done very well combating terrorism," Barton, author of "Indonesia's Struggle: Jemaah Islamiyah and the Soul of Islam", judges. "Terrorism was looked at as a law enforcement issue at first. There's a growing realization that you have to see the sociological dimension."
Although some groups that march under the Islamist banner are mere opportunistic thugs, many are true believers. Barton notes, "There was a lot of soul searching among radicals after the bombings about the sharia [law] legality of what they did. They're not as soulless as they're often portrayed."
Non-violent consensus
The smaller-scale 2005 Bali bombings proved to be a turning point. Twenty people were killed plus the three bombers; all but five of the dead were Indonesians. The attacks on a restaurant in Kuta and the popular beach dining area at Jimbaran Bay, were the first confirmed instances of suicide bombings in Indonesia.
The Kuta bomber was caught on tape and the Jimbaran aftermath included the severed head of a suspected bomber. In the wake of the bombings, a consensus emerged among religious and political leaders that, even if jihad was justified, Indonesia was not the right battlefront.
In the face of that consensus, Jemaah Islamiyah may have splintered but terrorism still hasn't disappeared in Indonesia. "Today there are lots of rapidly developing small cells with little central control or coordination," Barton says. These groups have carried out attacks such as the 2009 bombings of Jakarta's JW Marriott and Ritz Carlton hotels and last year's attacks in Central Java on a police mosque and Protestant Church. Police recently claim to have uncovered an alleged plot to attack Parliament.
These terrorists are protected, according to Barton, by social networks that include family, neighbors and co-religionists. "There's a strong cultural proclivity to be part of networks," he says, noting that Indonesia has the world's second largest number of Facebook users. "While networks may have opposed attacks, there is a sense of solidarity with the brothers that protects them."
Barton, interviewed while he was in Indonesia for research and meetings last month, believes, "If radicals play their cards right, they can win support. But if they overplay their hands, they'll lose support."
Space exploration
Similar social dynamics are a key factor in intolerance toward religious minorities. "Market forces are at work," Barton says. "Contestation between advocates of secularism and Islamists has been seen throughout Indonesian history. Under Suharto, there was no space for Islamists. In the reformasi era, there's more space."
In recent years, there's been a rising tide of violence against members of minority Muslim sects, including Ahmadiyah and Shia. Church burnings have also flared up. Demonstrations featuring threats of violence and local government defiance of courts and the national constitution have led to years-long impasses over the construction of new churches, leading congregations to worship in the open under police protection. Local governments continue to pass sharia-inspired statutes in defiance of the secular charter.
What's different in the recent cases of terrorism and intolerance is the absence of a firm consensus against such acts among political and religious leaders, as happened in the aftermath of the 2005 Bali bombing.
"If there was strong political leadership drawing a line in the sand, a lot of this would go away, but they're not," Barton says. "It's the role of the government and [mainstream Muslim organizations] Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah to set limits, to say this is beyond the pale and won't be tolerated. Until they're forced, the Islamists won't stop."
[Longtime editor of award-winning investor rights advocate eRaider.com, Gary LaMoshi has written for Slate and Salon.com, and works an adviser to Writing Camp (www.writingcamp.net). He first visited Indonesia in 1994 and has been watching ever since.]