Markus Junianto Sihaloho – Democratic Party chairman Anas Urbaningrum has been fighting for his political survival since he was implicated months ago in several graft cases.
While his supporters insist that Anas can maintain his authority and work well with both President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his son Edhie "Ibas" Baskoro, the party's secretary general, a prolonged investigation by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) into cases implicating him has diminished support for his leadership within the party.
Just after he won the party chairmanship in 2009 and before the graft cases emerged, Anas – young, smart and good-looking – was considered a leading contender to get the party's presidential nomination for the 2014 election. That was despite many being aware of tension between him and the president.
Yudhoyono has reportedly been annoyed by Anas's public statements challenging his authority, including the chairman's mobilization of funds and members to help defeat the president's then-spokesman, Andi Mallarangeng.
But with his name linked to several graft cases, his prospects of representing the party have almost vanished. "Now, he is struggling to merely stay in his post, let alone challenging Yudhoyono or becoming the party's presidential candidate," said Fachry Ali, a political expert from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).
Nurhayati Ali Assegaf, the new head of the party's faction in the House of Representatives, said the graft cases implicating Anas had caused many members to question the chairman's authority. "I think it's normal that many [members] don't trust him because he has been mentioned in several graft cases," she said.
Ruhut Sitompul, another senior Democrat, said this week's incident in North Maluku showed the decline of Anas's authority due to the graft cases.
On Thursday, a mob attacked an entourage including Anas and Ibas shortly after they arrived in Ternate. The attackers hit two members of the entourage, Ibrahim and Syarif. Anas and Ibas managed to escape unscathed, after which they flew back to Jakarta. No one was injured.
Fachry said Yudhoyono's decision to more directly manage the party and try to prevent it degenerating into internecine conflict while removing graft-implicated members would, paradoxically, help Anas remain in his current position ahead of the 2014 election. Previous efforts to remove Anas by attacking him in the media both divided the party and damaged its public image.
Yudhoyono has stated publicly that he will wait for the KPK's decision on Anas's status – whether he is named as a suspect or remains merely a witness – before making any move against the party chairman.
"Now, they realize that attacking Anas means damaging the party further. So, now they solidify themselves under Yudhoyono, who now gets directly involved," Fachry said. "As long as Ibas continues to accompany Anas on public occasions, the relations are still fine."
The Democrats' substantial reshuffle of its House of Representatives leadership during the week has been perceived as evidence of Yudhoyono's direct involvement in efforts to restore the good image that delivered the party strong election results in 2009.
The reshuffle removes those implicated in graft cases, such as faction head Jafar Hafsah and the deputy head of the Budget Committee, Mirwan Amir, both of whom were close allies of Anas. Jafar has been replaced by Nurhayati, a former adviser to first lady Ani Yudhoyono.
Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), said Yudhoyono's reshuffle was intended to distance the party from graft cases involving Muhammad Nazaruddin, the party's former treasurer, and Angelina Sondakh, the party's former deputy secretary general, rather than isolating Anas.
The KPK has announced that Nazaruddin has been implicated in more than 30 corruption cases. "This reshuffle is an attempt to push forward officials not connected to graft cases, especially scams involving Nazruddin," Burhanuddin said.
According to Arya Fernandez, a political analyst from the Charta Politika, the reshuffle is part of Yudhoyono's attempt to solidify the party, with Nurhayati as a central intermediary figure.
He said Nurhayati was known to be close to Anas as well as having a good relationship with the Yudhoyono family. "So, I see the reshuffle as a bridge to solidify the party," he said.
A Democratic official close to Ibas said recently that the emergence of the graft cases meant Anas was now considered unlikely to challenge Yudhoyono. His removal could endanger the public reputations of the president's family, which has been linked to several scandals, such as the Bank Century bailout and several cases involving Nazaruddin.
Initially, Nazaruddin accused Ibas and Anas of involvement in several cases in which he was accused. However, Ibas's name later disappeared from the list of those accused.
"Anas knows too much and pushing him too hard will create a backlash we don't want to see," the Democratic official said. "We'd better allow him to maintain his post while limiting his influence. Unless the KPK decide to name him a suspect, he stays."