Bayu Marhaenjati – With his Democratic Party struggling to produce a strong presidential candidate to put up in the 2014 election, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono appears to be looking beyond the party for a possible successor, analysts say.
Yudhoyono's meeting last Monday with Prabowo Subianto, founder of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), in Bali is seen as part of efforts to recruit a popular figurehead with a chance of winning the presidential election.
The president sent a special invitation to Prabowo for a reunion of the Indonesian Armed Forces Academy's graduating class of 1973, even though Prabowo graduated a year later. During the gathering, Yudhoyono took time for a private talk with Prabowo.
While officials from both parties have played down the meeting as just a chat between two old friends, others say a Democratic ticket featuring Prabowo could be possible.
"It must have been more than just a reunion of military academy alumni," said Burhanuddin Muhtadi, from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI). "There must have been something said regarding the 2014 presidential election."
Recent surveys show Prabowo trailing only Yudhoyono and Megawati Sukarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), in terms of popularity.
Yudhoyono is barred by a constitutional term limit from running for re-election, while Megawati, the losing candidate in the two previous elections, is under pressure from inside her party to stand aside for a younger candidate.
"So Prabowo could be the strongest candidate now," said Aleksius Jemadu, dean of Pelita Harapan University's School of Social and Political Sciences. "We can understand why Yudhoyono is approaching him, because he doesn't want to back the wrong horse and only wants to back the likely winner."
He said teaming up with Prabowo would not only provide a needed boost for the Democrats' sagging popularity but would also give the party the all-important support of the military.
A series of corruption cases have hobbled the Democrats, the country's biggest party, while several former generals have expressed dissatisfaction with the way Yudhoyono is running the country. "It's like killing two birds with one stone," Aleksius said. "Yudhoyono and Prabowo have had their arguments in the past, but now it's time to bury the hatchet."
The Democrats were earlier believed to be eyeing a tie-up with the Golkar Party, nominating either Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie or Jusuf Kalla, the former chairman and a former vice president under Yudhoyono.
But Burhanuddin said Yudhoyono was unlikely to put his party's destiny in the unpredictable hands of Golkar.
"It's difficult for Yudhoyono to trust Golkar," he said. "Siding with Prabowo, a fellow military man, is more manageable and less complicated than with Golkar," Aleksius said.