Markus Junianto Sihaloho & Robertus Wardi – With the electoral requirement that a political party or coalition of parties win at least 20 percent of votes in the legislative election in order to nominate a presidential candidate, only three pairs of candidates are likely to compete in the 2014 race.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, the Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) are the three major parties considered capable of achieving that threshold.

But whether each of those parties nominates a candidate by itself or ends up the lead member of a political coalition to nominate a candidate depends on their performances in the 2014 legislative elections, which will be held several months before the presidential election.

"I think the results of the [legislative] elections will likely be the same as 2009," said Fachry Ali, a political analyst at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), on Friday. The Democrats topped those elections with 21 percent, followed by Golkar and PDI-P with 14 percent.

Fachry said that despite several scandals hitting the party, Democrats would retain their support as long as Yudhoyono devotes time to campaigning for the party.

As for the Democrats' candidate, Yudhoyono has the final say. Among those mentioned as possible candidates are Hatta Rajasa, Yudhoyono's in-law and the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), Gen. Pramono Edhie Wibowo, the president's brother-in-law and the Army chief of staff, and Djoko Suyanto, the coordinating minister for political, legal and security affairs.

Regarding candidates from his family, Yudhoyono has said publicly only that his wife and sons will not run in the election. "But [he] is still waiting because the available candidates are not popular enough to win the presidency," a source close to the State Palace said. "He will only jump to the figure that is likely to win."

With Yudhoyono constitutionally prohibited from running for a third term, PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri, whom many surveys put at the top of voters' lists behind only Yudhoyono, may be best positioned to seek a nomination.

"That is if she has no shame, because she has been defeated twice in the last two elections," Fachry said. Megawati has yet to announce whether she will run or whom she might endorse.

PDI-P would only need to join with two or three smaller parties to nominate Megawati, with likely opposition partners in the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and Prabowo Subianto's Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra).

However, Prabowo has declared that he will run for president; his business tycoon brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, has stating that he has put aside Rp 100 trillion ($10.9 billion) for Prabowo's campaign.

Fachry said that if Gerindra gets more than 10 percent of votes in the legislative elections, Prabowo could run by persuading PDI-P to support him. But a showing comparable to the 2009 elections would put a serious damper on those plans, he added.

Another possible candidate is Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie, still struggling to unite his party behind him in the face of party infighting. Aburizal, also a business tycoon, has declared his candidacy, with the party's central board announcing he will be nominated at a national meeting in June despite rifts within the Golkar leadership.

Charta Politika analyst Yunarto Widjaya said Aburizal would nonetheless emerge as Golkar's presidential standard bearer.

Yunarto said word that Democrats were considering nominating former Vice President Jusuf Kalla, a former Golkar chairman, was part of a strategy to divide Golkar. Several national polls have shown Kalla ahead of Aburizal, trailing only Yudhoyono, Megawati and Prabowo.