The place of the rebellious Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in the ruling coalition again appears secure, despite weeks of discontent from members of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party.
Things have quieted after several meetings between the leaders of Yudhoyono's multi-party coalition that excluded PKS representatives.
Further, the Cabinet's three PKS ministers remain in place: Agriculture Minister Suswono, Social Affairs Minister Salim Segaf Al Jufri and Communications and Information Minister Tifatul Sembiring.
Yunarto Widjaya, a political analyst from Charta Politika, said the maintenance of the status quo was a classic example of Yudhoyono's leadership style of wanting to play things safe during a contentious political situation.
"[Yudhoyono] just does not want to have enemies in his coalition. I think this is the President's decision-making style. He wants to create political harmony," Yunarto told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.
Yunarto said that the drive to eject the PKS from the coalition reflected an emotional outburst from some Democratic Party politicians who Yudhoyono eventually mollified.
The soft handling of the PKS was not the first instance where Yudhoyono ignored rumblings within his Democratic Party against other parties.
"The Democratic Party never lives up to its official statements because its chief patron [Yudhoyono] never follows up on its recommendations. He just wants to play it safe," Yunarto said.
Earlier this month, the PKS declined to support the government's policy to raise fuel prices.
Lawmakers from the Muslim-based party in the House of Representatives defended a proposed article to amend the 2012 budget that would have barred the government from raising fuel prices.
During deliberations at a plenary session, the PKS allied with three opposition parties – the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and the Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) – to oppose the government's plan.
The PKS bucked its partners in the ruling coalition that had accepted the government's proposal to allow it to increase subsidized fuel prices if the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) increased by 15 percent within six months.
Meanwhile, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), said that Yudhoyono needed the status quo to maintain equilibrium in the coalition.
"He wants to maintain balance in the coalition, because if the PKS exits without a replacement, the coalition will be too dependent on the Golkar Party."
However, Burhanuddin said, the President's indecisiveness meant that the PKS has not been sanctioned for its repeated intransigence to the coalition's policies.
Burhanuddin said that although the political parties in Yudhoyono's coalition comprised 46 percent of the lawmakers in the House, that would not guarantee that the Democratic Party could railroad the House into supporting the government's policy.
"The coalition will need Golkar to support it. But on the other hand, Golkar is not a 'good boy', so the President doesn't want to rely on the party too much," he said.
Golkar decided at the 11th hour of the fuel-price deliberations that it would not support the government's decision, only to back down in a crucial vote to approve a delay on the implementation of the policy.
According to Burhanuddin, as the coalition's leader, Yudhoyono was the only person who could make the political decision to expel the PKS. The possibility of multi-party deadlock was high if no single group dominated, he added.
Achmad Mubarok, a member of the Democratic Party's patron board, said that the PKS was no longer in the coalition.
"The [coalition] contract clearly stipulates that any party violating the agreement will automatically leave the coalition. It's written in the contract, there is no need for the President to make an announcement. It is only a matter of the PKS politicians having no shame anymore for staying in the Cabinet," he said.
Separately, PKS president Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq shrugged off queries about the PKS' fate in the coalition. "Coalition? what coalition? I thought we were done talking about this," Luthfi said. (fzm)