The government is dead serious in entertaining the idea of a plot being underway to bring down President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono by creating massive chaos via rioting when the government raises fuel prices on April 1.

What was initially dismissed as a wild rumor when Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Djoko Suyanto openly broached his thoughts last week has now become grounds for policy. On Monday, Djoko led a meeting of ministers under his charge to discuss plans to mobilize security forces in dealing with the large-scale public protests expected to take place in the coming weeks.

Fresh in their memories are the events that led to the downfall of strongman Soeharto in 1998. Two weeks after he raised domestic fuel prices, the large protests turned into bloody riots that forced him to quit and abruptly ended his 32-year rule. Surprisingly, that's the memory that haunts the Yudhoyono administration, while there are more recent references when the government hiked fuel prices with little interruption to political stability.

If this is mere paranoia on the part of officials, we can let them live in fear. But this paranoia is being used as the basis of a policy of how they plan to deal with people intending to express their objection to the planned increase in fuel prices. Is President Yudhoyono, who won a second term in a landslide vote in the 2009 elections and who rules a coalition government of six political parties that controls more than three-quarters of seats in the House of Representatives, that insecure?

More disturbing is the underlying thinking behind using a security approach for anything that remotely threatens stability. That was the preferred and only method used under Soeharto, producing a deadly effect in dealing with demonstrations.

That the increase in fuel prices will lead to massive protests is something that is inevitable in a country that respects freedom of expression. Many people will be hurt by the fuel price increases and they will want to express their anger. Almost as sure is that many government detractors will take advantage of the situation to score political points. A tiny minority – the usual suspects – may harbor a coup, but surely they can be dismissed.

Rather than planning to deploy security forces, the government would be better off to mobilize its resources in a public information campaign explaining the rationale for the increase in fuel prices. It will not be a novelty. In 2005, the government did such a splendid job before raising fuel prices, not once but twice, with minimum impact on security.

The real source of insecurity stems not so much from the streets, but from the lack of support from some coalition partners. They have either openly rejected the increase in fuel prices or given half-hearted support. The problem is not so much external as it is internal: Yudhoyono's inability to manage his coalition government. He'd be better off working on this problem than anticipating some imagined coup plot.