Agus Triyono, Arientha Primanita & Markus Junianto Sihaloho – The House of Representatives has until March to amend the law on elections, but one key issue remains contentious: the minimum percentage of votes a party must secure to gain a place in the parliament.
Various proposals sought a legislative threshold of between 2.5 percent (the current figure) and 5 percent, with small parties – worrying they would fail to qualify – wanting the lowest percentage and big parties aiming to set the bar higher.
"There is no clear ground to determine what the parliamentary threshold should be, and each party has its own consideration," said Indria Samego, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI). "To reach an ideal figure, we must take a comparison from developed countries, where it is set at around 5 percent. For me, that's a reasonable figure."
The 5 percent threshold is high enough to limit the number of parties and simplify the relationship between the legislature and the government, while on the other hand is also small enough to avoid accusations that the state is restricting parties, he said.
"We have nine political parties [in the House] and an increased threshold may reduce them to four. If that happens, it will lead to a much more effective governance system," he said.
The 2009 elections put the threshold at 2.5 percent, but if the bar had been double that, only six parties would have made it to the House: the Democratic Party, which gained 20.9 percent of votes, the Golkar Party (14.4 percent), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P, 14 percent), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS, 7.9 percent), the National Mandate Party (PAN, 6 percent) and the United Development Party (PPP, 5.3 percent).
Golkar has been pursuing a 5 percent threshold and proposes that in each five-yearly election, it be increased until it reaches 10 percent. "That's our aspiration," said Leo Nababan, the party's deputy secretary general.
With a 10 percent threshold, there would soon be only two parties in the parliament, the ruling party and the opposition, he said, adding that fewer parties meant stronger democracy and better governance.
"What happens now is that many small parties who get one or two chairs... sell their chairs for money. The people get nothing but the party leaders benefit from such a practice," he alleged.
Regional Representatives Council (DPD) chairman Irman Gusman said in Indonesia's system, which is led by a president, a higher threshold was suitable because of the need for fewer parties in order to achieve effective and stable governance. "If necessary, the threshold should be raised to 8 percent," Irman said.
Syarief Hasan from the Democratic Party said 4 percent would suit his party, which is negotiating with coalition members to reach agreement on a figure. "All parties must work their hardest to reach 4 percent of the national vote, and the aim of reducing the number of parties will come true. Even newly established parties have a chance to reach the figure," Syarief said.
Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) founder Prabowo Subianto said his party was not concerned about the issue and had no fear of "playing the game initiated by big parties."
"We are ready to face whatever figure. We will deal with that," Prabowo said. His party won 4.5 percent of the vote in the 2009 legislative elections.
PPP chairman Suryadharma Ali has said the threshold shouldn't be changed from 2.5 percent. His view is supported by nongovernmental group the Center for Electoral Reform (Cetro), which said the higher the threshold, the more votes failed to elect a member.
"We should refrain from modifying the current figure, which is already high by Indonesian standards," Cetro chairman Hadar Gumay said.
But it seems that more analysts prefer a higher threshold. "A higher threshold may force parties to reform and improve themselves so that they become strong parties with strong grass roots, not just to last the age of a corn plant," political analyst Siti Zuhro said.
A smaller number of parties would allow the government to work more effectively, she said. While admitting that a higher threshold would cause votes obtained by small parties to go to waste, Siti called that a natural selection process.
"That way, people will learn that it's not easy to establish a party. Remember the Indonesian Democratic Party [PDI]? It was small, but it transformed into the PDI-P and is now a major party," she said.
[Additional reporting from Suara Pembaruan.]