Anita Rachman – With 2011 now behind us, pundits looking ahead to 2012 see a year of intense political battles and legal struggles ahead for Indonesia.
Expectations are high for the new members of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), Jakarta is scheduled to have a gubernatorial election, record rains and floods are predicted for the city, the House of Representatives should deliberate important bills that will shape the future of politics in the nation and political parties will start putting their 2014 presidential candidates on display.
"There are so many things to look forward to in 2012," Saldi Isra, a legal expert at Andalas University in Padang, told the Jakarta Globe. And with everything that is happening, he said the performance of the KPK would be the most important thing to watch.
Last year ended with several unresolved major graft cases. The arrest of businesswoman Nunun Nurbaetie, accused of distributing Rp 24 billion ($2.6 million) in traveler's checks to 41 lawmakers in exchange for appointing economist Miranda Goeltom to a senior position at the central ban, created just more unanswered questions about where the checks came from.
Another unresolved case is the bid-rigging scandal involving former Democratic Party treasurer Muhammad Nazaruddin. Nazaruddin has accused a number of senior Democrats of enjoying kickbacks from projects that he had rigged, but the KPK has yet to investigate the allegations.
"Usually what happens in Indonesia is a major scandal gets buried by another, more sensational case," Saldi said. "We cannot afford to do that in 2012. Cases must be resolved. Do not let them get overshadowed."
New KPK has its work cut out
Eva Kusuma Sundari, a member of House Commission III, which oversees legal affairs, said politicians and analysts would not quickly forget the promise made by the newly appointed KPK chairman, Abraham Samad, during the selection process. He vowed to step down if he failed to unravel major corruption cases.
"He promised that he was going to resolve big cases such as Bank Century, the [Southeast Asian] Games athletes' village, [Nunun's] traveler's checks," Eva, from the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), told the Globe. Those are enough. It will take some guts and [it might possibly involve] risking their lives [to resolve them]."
Zainal Arifin Mochtar, director of Gadjah Mada University's Anticorruption Study Center, said that people would hold the entire KPK, not just Abraham, accountable for the chairman's promise. eople, he said, won't wait for a year to criticize the antigraft body, "they will do it soon, even in the first month of the new year," he said.
Saldi, who was on the KPK selection committee, said the major cases listed by Abraham would certainly not be easy to resolve and would require the KPK to withstand intense political pressure. "But support from civil society has been tremendous," he said. "It is up to the KPK and other law enforcers now, but especially the KPK."
Eva said the KPK members also needed to be careful and avoid being implicated in graft cases. She pointed to the 2009 arrests of former KPK deputies Bibit Samad Rianto and Chandra Hamzah at the height of the Bank Century bailout controversy, which she said weakened the commission.
Jakarta: Floods and elections
January kicks off a busy year for Jakarta, especially for candidates running in the capital's gubernatorial election.
Although the election is still six months away, residents are already being bombarded with campaign promises, posters and fliers, said Ibramsyah, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia.
Potential candidates are already on the campaign trail and taking shots at the incumbent, Fauzi Bowo, questioning just how effective a leader he has been. The election is scheduled for July 11 and will be a massive affair, with some 7.4 million eligible voters.
The chairman of Jakarta's General Elections Commission (KPUD), Juri Ardianto, said that candidates were scheduled to formally register from March 13 to 19.
"By the middle of May we will have an official list of candidates," he said. t least 10 potential candidates are said to be looking at a run, but there could be more.
They are the incumbent, Fauzi, Prijanto, the former deputy governor who resigned last month reportedly to prepare his run, Nachrowi Ramli, a retired general and the head of the Democratic Party in Jakarta, and University of Indonesia economist Faisal Basri.
Then there is celebrity and Golkar Party lawmaker Tantowi Yahya, the chairman of Golkar in Jakarta, Priya Ramadhani, the National Mandate Party's (PAN) Wanda Hamidah and Triwisaksana from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
Other possible candidates are outspoken Golkar legislator Basuki Purnama, and Nono Sampono, the former head of the presidential guard under President Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Juri said in the 2007 election, only 60 percent of eligible voters actually turned out. But with so many well-known figures potentially in the race to lead the city, he expects that number to rise significantly.
"We have been doing some preparations, and so far it has gone well," he said. "We have let people know about the election and the regulations, and have closely monitored the infrastructure that will support the election."
He said the political advertisements during the campaign season, 14 days before election day, would be unavoidable. But he said he was confident the people of Jakarta would be able to handle the onslaught and would help make the election a success.
Starting in January, political parties will begin to approach potential candidates, or vice versa, UI's Ibramsyah said. It is also likely that some of the figures thinking about a run for the governorship will have to settle for being a deputy governor candidate on another candidate's ticket.
Ibramsyah also mentioned that political advertisements would be unavoidable, as likely would be bribes.
"But people in Jakarta are smart, they will take the money but not necessarily vote for the candidates that gave it to them," he said. "However, I also see that people are getting more apathetic. They are not really sure that any of the candidates can solve Jakarta's serious problems such as traffic and floods."
Ibramsyah said people were losing faith in Fauzi, but so far no strong contenders had stepped up. If the election is close, the KPUD has set a date for the second round, Sept. 20.
While politics will be heating up in the city, residents have been warned that they are going to get all wet. It has been predicted that the capital will experience an unusually wet rainy season.
The coordinating minister for people's welfare, Agung Laksono, said the government was preparing for possible floods due to high rainfall.
According to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency's (BMKG) forecast, Jakarta will see the most rainfall in January, with the rainy season lasting until March. The forecast for January is rain every day in the capital.
"We have prepared preventive actions [for possible floods] in at-risk areas, including Jakarta," Agung said. The central government, he said, is working with local governments to prepare for possible evacuation, emergency responses and medical support.
National politics in spotlight
Is 2014 coming too soon? Hanta Yuda, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute, believes that it is.
This year, more political parties are expected to start showing off their candidates, as they test the political waters and gauge voter reaction.
At least two parties have thrown their support behind their chairmen: Golkar Party and Aburizal Bakrie, and the National Mandate Party and Hatta Rajasa.
Aburizal said Golkar would announce its presidential candidate this year. But first, he promised, the party would brush up its image and get better connected with voters.
Although Hatta has not confirmed the nomination, PAN deputy chairman Zulkifli Hasan said the decision had been made and all party members would have to abide by it.
"I think PAN's Hatta is a better vice presidential candidate," Hanta said. "Some political parties are actually only looking for a VP, al though they are presented as presidential candidates," he said.
Hanta added that other parties might follow suit and name candidates this year, "although it's all pretty predictable, actually. There won't be any truly new names. The People's Conscience Party will come out with Wiranto, the Great Indonesia Movement Party with Prabowo Subianto, and PDI-P with Sukarno's family, either chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri or Puan Maharani," he said.
Other parties such as the Prosperous Justice Party appear to be biding their time for deciding on candidates. These parties, Hanta said, might be looking to join coalition talks.
"While the Democrats said they would only announce their candidate in 2013 or 2014, others can't be stopped from [promoting their candidates to the public]," he said. "This will be a good year to see people's responses. It is the testing year, I would say."
Puan Maharani, however, said the PDI-P could not say for sure when it would announce its candidate. The announcement, she said, depends on the party's chairwoman, Megawati, who is also her mother. "It depends on the political situation. We are leaving this to the chairwoman," Puan has said.
But Hanta predicts that Indonesians will be keeping their eye on more than preparations for the 2014 elections. People, he said, will also be carefully watching the work of the House of Representatives.
The House is scheduled to deliberate a number of important bills that will change how political and legal affairs are conducted in the country, including bills on the KPK, elections and the status of Yogyakarta.
The Center for Indonesian Law and Policy Studies said the two "hottest" bills were on legislative elections and an amendment to the KPK law that could cut into the authority of the commission. Political parties at the House are expected to spend a lot of time deliberating the legislative elections bill.
The bill is expected to be finished by March, so that members can move to other bills on presidential elections and one on regional election. "Next year indeed is going to be intense because that's the cycle, we are approaching an election," said Nurul Arifin, a Golkar lawmaker.