John McBeth – A recent public opinion survey showing a drop in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's approval rating from 56.7 per cent to 47.2 per cent over the past six months is the clearest evidence yet that public patience with his ineffective leadership may finally be running out.
Much of the criticism so far has come from Jakarta's chattering classes, but the latest Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI) poll taken as far back as early June suggests the insidious disease of public perception may be slowly seeping into the vote-rich but more forgiving rural hinterland.
Undoubtedly, the single biggest reason for the latest ratings slide has been the widely televised corruption scandal rocking Yudhoyono's Democrat Party and the farcical situation surrounding the flight into exile of former party treasurer Muhammad Nazaruddin.
But the administration's overall failure to rein in graft and a disturbing announcement by the President's monitoring team that 17 of the country's 34 ministries had failed to reach targets set by Yudhoyono earlier this year point to a broader sense of stagnating governance.
For all the good news about a healthy growth rate and new investment, if debt worries abroad push the economy out of autopilot, the final three years of the Yudhoyono administration could turn into a long slog with a profound impact on the outcome of the 2014 elections.
The Nazaruddin case has dominated the front pages since he fled to Singapore on May 23, hours after a private meeting with the President and a day ahead of a belated Justice Ministry travel ban imposed at the request of the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK). The Straits Times has learnt that the supposedly ailing Nazaruddin left Singapore without any urging on June 20, fully 10 days before the KPK got around to declaring him a suspect in three corruption cases.
Singapore police alerted their Indonesian counterparts hours after Nazaruddin boarded a flight to Ho Chi Minh City. Three days later, the Indonesian Foreign Ministry was also informed, but the Singaporeans did not make it public to avoid causing embarrassment.
What happened after that seems to have been little more than a charade. As late as July 1, the presidential spokesman said Yudhoyono had directed national police chief Timur Pradopo to bring Nazaruddin home from Singapore. Then two days later, police reported that Interpol had been asked to issue a 'Red Notice' for Nazaruddin's detention, saying they were working with the Singapore Government to get him back.
On July 5, with the local media blaming the island state for blocking the implementation of a long-pending extradition treaty, the Singapore Government finally lost patience and disclosed that the fugitive was no longer there.
Sources familiar with the unfolding events say at no point did the Indonesian authorities attempt to cancel Nazaruddin's passport or provide an official communication that could have served as a legal basis for putting him on a plane back to Jakarta. Singapore officials have made it clear before that an extradition treaty is not a prerequisite for returning criminal suspects to Indonesia, but they say there has to be some legal justification for doing so.
Why the Indonesians did not do that goes to the heart of the whole controversy. The only conclusion to be drawn is that those in charge of damage control decided it would be easier to manage events if Nazaruddin was out of the country for a prolonged period.
In the days following the Singapore announcement, the Indonesians went into rhetorical contortions, with police claiming they knew where Nazaruddin was, but could not say so because he would then know they knew where he was.
It has all clearly been a serious miscalculation. Since he was declared a suspect, he has refused to stay silent, accusing Democrat Party chairman Anas Urbaningrum, other party members and KPK commissioner Chandra Hamzah of being involved in shady financial dealings. Analysts who have studied his claims say they find at least some of them compelling, particularly his detailed chronology of meetings which fits with what they know about the train of events leading up to his shock flight into exile.
Whatever the truth of his claims, the longer the case drags on, the more it is likely to hurt the President and his party. The fact that much of the money appears to have gone into political financing and not into personal enrichment cuts little ice with most people.
KPK deputy chairman Muhammad Jasin told foreign reporters recently that corruption today is worse than it has ever been. Transparency International Indonesia chairman Todung Mulya Lubis says that is particularly applicable to the court system.
Now that Yudhoyono's own party has fallen under the same cloud, the stakes are that much higher. But anyone witnessing the recent two-day Democrat convention would have been left with the impression that nothing was amiss.
The President did not once touch on the Nazaruddin case, either in his public speech or in closed-door meetings, where he complained that party members were not doing enough to own and capitalise on government subsidies and spending programs. When one delegate sought to raise the subject of Nazaruddin, he was told he was contravening party rules.
The media and the court of public opinion will not be so easily silenced.