Nurfika Osman & Farouk Arnaz – The threat of a coup by hard-liners and ex-military generals has been overblown and there is no reason for government officials to panic, analysts have said.
Arbi Sanit, a political expert from the University of Indonesia, said on Sunday that it was unlikely former military generals wielded the kind of power required to overthrow the government, a claim made by the leader of a radical Islamic group in an Al Jazeera report last week.
"These retired generals don't have the means to topple the government because they're powerless," Arbi said. "They're retired and they don't have much money to fund a coup d'etat or foment mass unrest. Neither do they enjoy any kind of mass support."
Chep Hernawan, head of the Islamic Reform Movement (Garis), told Al Jazeera that several senior ex-generals were pulling the strings behind the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) and other hard-line groups to incite religious violence and overthrow President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
"All they can do is talk, going from one discussion to another," Arbi said of the former generals. "So far, we haven't seen anything to show that they pose a threat to the country."
Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst and senior researcher with the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), agreed there was nothing to suggest such a coup would ever materialize. "I don't believe those generals have the power to topple Yudhoyono, because most of them are also close to him and to Wiranto," he said.
Wiranto, a former military chief of staff, is widely credited with kicking off reforms within the Armed Forces that saw it withdraw from politics and split from the police as an independent entity.
"If they weren't retired, perhaps they could topple the government," Burhanuddin added. "But now that they're no longer on active duty, they're not as effective."
However, Chep claimed the coup would go ahead unless Yudhoyono took a hard line against the Ahmadiyah Islamic sect. Members of the minority sect, which has faced increasing animosity over the years, have in recent months suffered deadly attacks and increased persecution by groups such as the FPI.
"If the president is still hesitant [about disbanding Ahmadiyah], we'll occupy the State Palace," Chep told the Jakarta Globe on Sunday.
"We're united by the Ahmadiyah issue, since these retired generals have also lost faith in how the president is managing the country. They are Muslims too and know very well that Yudhoyono's hesitance in banning Ahmadiyah could spark public anger, particularly from Muslims.
"This movement is based on aqidah [belief], not political interests," Chep said.
Among the military men backing the hard-liners is former Army chief of staff Gen. (ret.) Tyasno Sudarto, who previously told Al Jazeera about his support for groups aiming to topple Yudhoyono in a "revolution.
Others identified by Chep were Maj. Gen. (ret.) Muchdi Purwoprandjono, former commander of the Army's Special Forces (Kopassus); Maj. Gen. (ret.) Kivlan Zen, former commander of the Army's Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad); and Gen. (ret.) Fahrul Razi, a former deputy chief of staff.
Chep said several meetings had already taken place since January between the ex-generals and conservative Muslim leaders to discuss their plans.
"They weren't formal meetings, as you might imagine. Sometimes just one or two of the generals attended. I always attended along with Muhammad Al Khaththath," he said, referring to the secretary general of the Islamic People's Forum (FUI).
Al Khaththath has told Al Jazeera he helped draft a proposed Islamic revolutionary cabinet (DRI) to be appointed after the coup, overseen by FPI chairman Habib Riziq as president.
However, Chep said there had been no discussions yet as to who would lead the revolutionary government if it was ever achieved.
He denied Habib would be appointed as president or that noted radical Abu Jibril, a senior member of the Indonesian Mujahideen Council (MMI), would serve as vice president. "We haven't talked about it," Chep said. "Maybe later at our next meeting because we still have plans to meet after this."
Hard-line groups also plan to hold an anti-Ahmadiyah rally in Jakarta in the near future to urge Yudhoyono to issue a decree banning the sect, he added.