Arghea Desafti Hapsari, Jakarta – A Cabinet reshuffle could backfire on President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, contradicting his earlier claims that his administration's first 100-day programs had been successful, a political observer says.
"The President recently said more than 99 percent of [targets in the] 100-day programs had been accomplished. This would mean his ministers had performed and done a terrific job. But now there is this idea of reshuffling the Cabinet," Ari Dwipayana, a political analyst and lecturer at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said Sunday.
Polemics about a possible Cabinet reshuffle abound after three Democratic Party executives met Yudhoyono last week and recommended he replace ministers from several coalition partners who they deemed disloyal.
Although the President has yet to respond to the reshuffle proposal (as a presidential spokesman said) the country's political scene has shown mixed reactions to the idea. Some have called it a bluff, and a mere threat from the Democratic Party.
"[The reshuffle] is an instrument being used to put pressure on coalition members to make them choose the same position [as the Democratic Party] in the Bank Century bailout inquiry committee," Ari said.
Several legislators in the committee have sought the impeachment of Vice President Boediono, and for the removal of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Then Bank Indonesia governor Boediono and Mulyani authorized the Rp 6.76 trillion (US$716 million) Century bailout.
Indonesian Institute of Sciences researcher Siti Zuhro said the reshuffle threat "would lead to political lobbying where the Golkar Party and Prosperous Justice Party [PKS] would silence their members in the House inquiry committee". Legislators from the two parties have been some of the most vocal in the committee.
"Now that the Democratic Party has voiced a warning, they are just waiting to see which of the two parties will try to use the reshuffle idea as an opportunity to gain [ministerial posts]," Siti told The Jakarta Post.
PKS secretary-general Anis Matta said the threat of reshuffle "will not stop us from upholding the truth and resolving the [Century bailout] case". "I do not believe that parties in the committee would ruin the process just to gain political benefits that won't last," he said.
Golkar legislator Rully Chairul Azwar said his party would always take sides with law enforcement. "Golkar will always support Yudhoyono's policies, but not violations of law," he said.
Rully said he would regret the Democratic Party's move to propose the reshuffle if it was meant to punish the Golkar Party for being "disloyal".
"We did not form a coalition with the Democratic Party to support Yudhoyono's presidency, but with the forces in the House of Representatives... And we'll never betray that commitment to supporting Yudhoyono as a president, unless he creates a moral hazard for example by breaking the law," he said.
Rully also said the Golkar Party did not see Yudhoyono as guilty in the Bank Century bailout case. "As a president, he has the right to issue a policy when the country is in danger, but if parts of the policy violate the law while doing so, actions should be taken against them," Rully added.
Should Yudhoyono decide to go ahead with the reshuffle, he may cite reasons other than the heated tensions between coalition members at the inquiry committee hearings, Ari said.
But, "for whatever reason [Yudhoyono] says he may back a reshuffle, if this happens the public will know it is the result of the inquiry committee. This would be another of Yudhyono's political maneuvers," he said.