Fidelis E. Satriastanti – Indonesia should start preparing for a likely temperature rise of about 2.5 degrees Celsius and an increase in annual rainfall of 5 percent to 20 percent by the end of the century as a result of climate change, the national meteorological body has said.
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said low-lying regions, which make up most of Indonesia, will experience a temperature increase of 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius, while temperatures in highland regions, like the Bukit Barisan and Jayawijaya mountain ranges in Sumatra and Papua, will increase by more than 2.5 degrees. The normal average temperature increase is 1 degree every 100 years.
Armi Susandi, a climatologist from the Bandung Institute of Technology, said rising temperatures, especially on land, would lead to long droughts that would in turn cause more destructive forest fires around the country. Preparations, he said, were therefore needed to anticipate the impacts of climate change.
"However, as areas in Indonesia have their own characteristics, the adaptation plans should be designed according to specific needs," Armi said.
"For instance, East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara provinces are the driest regions in the country, but they should prepare for potentially heavy rains that could lead to landslides."
He said that Kalimantan would be hardest hit by drought, which would lead to massive forest fires.
The BMKG predictions are based on Japanese climate change projection models that have been used since last year to collect more accurate data on weather conditions and their link to climate change.
"With this model, the BMKG can make predictions not only for individual provinces, but for entire regions," said Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur, head of the BMKG's early warning system. "This is very important because each head of the region can then use the data and information to make decisions."
He said local governments should be able to use the information provided by the projections to design schemes to help various sectors, such as agriculture, energy and public works, adapt to the changes in climate.
Meanwhile, Syamsidar Thamrin, deputy director of climate change at the environment directorate of the National Development Planning Board (Bappenas), said that because the country did not have a "supercomputer" to predict climate change, all associated ministries had been asked to assign their best scientists to address the issue.
"It's the best thing for Indonesia to do right now," he said, "although, we're also aiming to make it more functional and more localized."