Jakarta – Despite recent claims made by the Golkar Party chairmanship candidates that they had secured most support, most regional leaders will decide who to elect based on the rewards offered, an independent study says.

Golkar is holding a national congress in Pekanbaru, Riau, from Monday until Thursday, to elect a new party chairman to replace outgoing Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

A survey conducted by the Institute of Public Policy Studies (LSKP) identified three factors – namely rewards, the bandwagon effect and heroism – in the Golkar Party members' voting preferences in the election of a new chairman.

"The rewards could be in form of financial (support) or positions (party members) are promised if they elect a certain candidate." LSKP director, Sunarto Ciptoharjono told a press conference on Thursday.

Roughly half of Golkar's regional leaders voting at its national had congress would prioritize rewards in choosing their new leader, Sunarto said.

"But we cannot analyze who the winner will be... because we do not know how much money has been allocated by each candidate in their campaigns," he said. "It is true that Aburizal Bakrie owns a giant business, but Surya Paloh is also a successful businessman," Sunarto said.

The second-most important factor in Golkar members' decisions would be the bandwagon effect, which LKSP says would sway around 30 percent of the party's regional leaders' votes.

The third factor, heroism, would influence 20 percent of regional leaders; those looking for a candidate who could give Golkar a glorious future.

"Surya has more strength in this area, because he has vowed to make the party an equal partner to the government," Sunarto said. "On the other hand, Aburizal will make Golkar a government supporter."

Golkar deputy secretary-general Rully Chairul Aswar insisted that the congress would go ahead as scheduled, despite Wednesday's deadly earthquake that also jolted Pekanbaru.

At present there are apparently two front-runners vying for the Golkar leadership; media magnate Surya is Golkar's chief patron, while Aburizal is a party patron and the Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare.

Young legislator Yuddy Chrisnandi and Hutomo "Tommy" Mandala Putra, the youngest son of former president Soeharto, have also announced bids for the party leadership.

Surya, who owns MetroTV television station and Media Indonesia newspaper, has claimed the support of around 90 percent of the regional branches, as published in two-page ads in his newspaper.

Aburizal, who owns TVOne television station, has promised to donate Rp 1 trillion as trust fund for the party, and made similar claims of support.

Rully said the Indonesian public was looking for real development and were not interested in changes to the administration. (adh)