Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – Indonesia's efforts toward sustainable development, poverty eradication and a stronger economy are under serious threat from climate change, according to an ADB report released Tuesday.
The study said climate change would increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones.
"It is exacerbating water shortages, constraining agricultural production, threatening food security, triggering forest fires, coastal degradation and increasing health risks." Rainfall would also decline in the next 20 to 30 years in Indonesia, the study claimed.
The report, "Economics of climate change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review", was conducted jointly by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the British government. It followed up on economist Lord Nicholas Stern's review on climate change in 2007.
The study focused on four Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
"Climate change seriously threatens Indonesia's economic development. The worst is yet to come," ADB assistant chief Juzhong Zhung said in the report. "Combating climate change requires urgent action on both adaptation and mitigation – there is no time for delay."
The report also warned that hundreds of small islands across the country are under serious threat of sinking as climate change contributes to rising sea levels.
Under a high emissions scenario, the annual temperature in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam is projected to increase by 4.8 degree Celsius by 2100 compared to 1990. This in turn could lead to a 70 centimeter rise in sea levels over the same period.
Indonesia has 5.8 million square kilometers of sea with coastlines stretching 81,000 kilometers, which serve as home to millions of people.
Data from the State Ministry of Environment shows 65 percent of people on Java, Indonesia's most populated island, live in and around coastal areas. The country also has about 17,500 small islands.
The study said the changes in climate would also hit the agriculture sector in Indonesian and other Southeast Asian countries.
"By the end of century, the total cost of climate change could be equivalent of 6.7 percent of Southeast Asian nation's gross domestic product (GDP) each year," ADB principal climate change specialist David McCauley said at a press conference in Jakarta to announce the release of the report.
The study also names Indonesia as the biggest greenhouse gas emitter in the region, releasing 59 percent out of the total 5,190 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2000.
"We don't need to be bashful [over the ranking], because these emissions mostly originated from forest fires. What we need to know is how to protect the forests," environmentalist Emil Salim, who was also involved in producing the report, said.
British Ambassador to Indonesia Martin Hatfull said halting deforestation would be an alternative to cutting emissions in Indonesia.