Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – The internal bickering within the Golkar Party could develop into a bitter split, following its failure to address local branches' demands for the party to name its own presidential candidate, political experts warned Monday.
Golkar, the country's largest party, ended a three-day national leadership meeting here Sunday, but refused to include such a demand into its official decision.
Some provincial branches of the party had demanded the party choose its own presidential candidate, regardless of its prospects for the 2009 legislative elections; while others called for the party to wait until after the election results were announced before nominating a candidate.
Political analysts say the growing internal tensions are rooted in the fact Golkar has no prominent figures, including party chairman and Vice President Jusuf Kalla, popular enough at the national level to be nominated as viable presidential candidates.
"They feel they have the same chance of being elected. If the party nominates a certain figure, others will be disappointed, creating tensions and rebellion within the party," said Mohammad Qodari, executive director of the Indo Barometer polling body.
He added although Kalla stood a good chance of being nominated, he could realistically only run as vice president, citing his 1-2 percent popularity rating in many surveys.
University of Indonesia political expert Arbi Sanit called all top Golkar figures "second graders" deserving of only ministerial posts, or the vice presidency at best.
"How can you nominate a figure with a less than 5 percent rating? Even Sri Sultan (Hamengkubowono X) can't compete with Megawati (Soekarnoputri) or President (Susilo Bambang) Yudhoyono," he said.
Indonesian Institute of Sciences political analyst Ikrar Nusa Bhakti said that unlike Megawati's position in the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) or Yudhoyono's role in the Democratic Party, Kalla's influence over Golkar was much weaker, allowing provincial branches and senior figures to express their own aspirations freely.
"Golkar doesn't have a central figure in control of the party's branches and affiliated organizations. So we can expect more challenges to Kalla's leadership in the future," he said.
Kalla has hinted he would run again with incumbent President Yudhoyono, who also indicated he would team up with Kalla for the 2009 presidential election.
Ikrar said the move by Golkar's provincial branches and organizations to release a list of presidential candidates other than Kalla during the national meeting showed some party faithfuls doubted Kalla's chances of winning the presidency.
This challenge also means resistance to Kalla's plan to team up again with Yudhoyono, Ikrar added.
He said should Golkar win more votes in the next election than in the 2004 polls, the pressure on the party to name its own presidential candidate would be unavoidable.
But if the party performs poorly in the election, he went on, many would question Kalla's legitimacy, thus opening the way for his being ousted as Golkar chairman.
"If the party does well and surveys show other figures are more popular than Kalla, then he must allow the party to nominate a presidential candidate other than him," Ikrar said.
But if Kalla insists on forging a coalition with Yudhoyono, Ikrar said, the rift would widen, with many senior figures likely to leave the party and run with other presidential hopefuls.
This would mirror the 2004 campaign when Kalla ran with Yudhoyono against the official Golkar nominee Wiranto and his running mate Solahudin Wahid, he added.