Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – Despite a glut of new contenders for the presidency in 2009, it looks likely the President and his predecessor will square off in a repeat of their 2004 duel, a new survey finds.
Confirming previous polling, the London-based Taylor Nelson and Sofres (TNS) research firm and the National Leadership Center (NLC) said their new survey showed Megawati Soekarnoputri leading the pack of challengers with 28 percent of the vote from 2,000 respondents in 30 provinces.
Yudhoyono came second with 27 percent, despite his widely acknowledged efforts to combat corruption.
The survey also showed the surprising popularity of Indonesian Farmer and Fisherman Association (HKTI) chairman Prabowo Subianto, who joined the ranks of the top three ahead of the country's heavyweights, such as Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono X (6 percent), former Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Wiranto (5 percent) and former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid (4 percent).
Prabowo, a former Army Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad) chief, won 11 percent of the voters' support.
"Yudhoyono and Megawati will closely compete in the upcoming election. But thanks to his brilliant TV ads, Prabowo could significantly lift his popularity," Taufik Bahaudin of the NLC told reporters at the launch of survey results here Thursday.
Surveys conducted by different pollster earlier had found that Megawati and Yudhoyono would make it to the run-off election.
A June survey by Indo Barometer pollster found Megawati taking a commanding lead over Yudhoyono – almost 10 percent – while a July survey by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed Megawati up by 9 percent.
Neither survey grouped Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party chairman Prabowo Subianto in the big five. Only a survey by the Reform Institute during the June-July period ranked him a distant fifth with 3.8 percent behind Megawati (19.4 percent), Yudhoyono (19.1 percent), the sultan (7.1 percent) and Amien Rais (6.1 percent).
TNL and the NLC also found Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) the runaway leader with 28 percent of voters' support, ahead of the Golkar Party with 14 percent, Yudhoyono's Democratic Party (PD) with 13 percent, the National Awakening Party (PKB) with 7 percent and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 6 percent.
The survey results are consistent with other previous polling that put the PDI-P far ahead of Golkar. Indo Barometer's survey gave the PDI-P a 12 percent lead over Golkar while the Reform Institute found the PDI-P up by just over 6 percent. The CSIS survey, meanwhile, saw the PDI-P take a 2 percent lead over Golkar.
The PD's 13 percent achievement, according to the TNS and NLC, was quite a surprise as previous surveys found much less support for the party, which earned only 9.6 percent and 10 percent of support respectively in the Indo Barometer and Reform Institute surveys.
Consistent with the rise of Prabowo, the TNS survey also found newly established Gerindra winning 5 percent of respondents' support, ahead of old-timers the National Mandate Party (4 percent) and the United Development Party (3 percent).
Wiranto's People's Conscience Party (Hanura) followed with 2 percent.