Abdul Khalik – Former president Megawati Soekarnoputri and her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) would sweep to victory in both the legislative and the first-round presidential elections if they were held today, a new survey suggests.
The survey, conducted by the Reform Institute in June and July, confirms the results of several other polls, which found Megawati has slipped past President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the PDI-P is keeping a strong lead over the Golkar Party.
Through interviews with 2,520 respondents in 33 provinces, the Reform Institute survey found 19.4 percent of respondents would vote for Megawati in the presidential election, compared with 19 percent for Yudhoyono.
The finding indicates a sharp decline in Yudhoyono's popularity since his government raised fuel prices in late May.
A previous survey conducted by the same pollster in February and March showed Yudhoyono was supported by 24.8 percent of respondents, with Megawati a distant second with 16.8 percent.
Another survey, conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) last month, found Yudhoyono's popularity had dropped to 14.7 percent, compared with 23.2 percent for Megawati.
Earlier in June the Indo Barometer survey found 30.4 percent of respondents would vote for Megawati, compared with only 20.7 percent for Yudhoyono.
"Our survey found that Yudhoyono's drop in popularity was connected with people's negative assessment of his government's performance, especially after it raised fuel prices at the end of May," Reform Institute executive director Yudi Latif said here Monday.
The survey found 68.18 percent of respondents believed the government's policies had failed in general, with 91.35 percent citing the failure to create jobs as the most disappointing policy, and 81.42 percent pointing to the increase in electricity rates and fuel prices.
The survey also showed increases in popularity since February and March for Yogyakarta Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X (up from 5 percent to 7.12 percent), former People's Consultative Assembly speaker Amien Rais (from 2.2 percent to 6.14 percent) and former Army Strategic Reserve Command chief Prabowo Subianto (from 0.3 percent to 3.8 percent).
Former TNI chief Wiranto experienced a drop in popularity with only 3.05 percent backing him in June, down from 4.5 percent in March.
In the survey on support for political parties, 22.58 percent of respondents said they backed the PDI-P, with Golkar trailing with 16.23 percent.
The Democratic Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) came in third, fourth and fifth with 10, 9.84 and 5.61 percent, respectively.
The CSIS survey last month and Indo Barometer's poll in June also confirmed the PDI-P had widened its lead over Golkar.
On the question of vice presidential candidates, the Reform Institute survey saw People's Consultative Assembly speaker Hidayat Nur Wahid make a surprise surge as the most electable candidate, with 22.58 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him.
Sri Sultan, Vice President Jusuf Kalla and Wiranto followed with 15.19, 14.23 and 12 percent, respectively.