Desy Nurhayati and Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – The 18 new parties contesting the 2009 legislative election are unlikely to transform the political face of the country, analysts said Tuesday.
The new parties will be unable to bring about any real change because they represent the interests of old political players, Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia said.
"There will be no repeat of the success story enjoyed by the Democratic Party in 2004. No surprise is expected to mark next year's elections," Arbi said.
The General Elections Commission passed the 18 parties to contest the elections, along with 16 other parties that automatically qualified for the polls under election laws.
While several parties will be making their debut in next year's elections, they were founded by long-established political players, including retired military generals and politicians who broke ranks with their old parties following internal disputes.
These include the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) founded by former Indonesian Military chief Gen. (ret) Wiranto, the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), which was set up by the former commander of the Army's Strategic Reserves Command, Lt. Gen. (ret) Prabowo Subianto, and the Democratic Reform Party (PDP) formed by former Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle politicians.
Indra J. Pilliang of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies said the new parties would struggle to get their names out and connect with voters.
He said only four to five of the new parties would meet the 2.5 percent electoral threshold that would automatically qualify them for the 2014 legislative election. These four or five parties are, according to Indra, Hanura, PDP, the Ulema National Awakening Party (PKNU), Gerindra and the National Sun Party (PMB).
"Wiranto's popularity at the national level and the party's well-organized machinery as well as financial capability will help Hanura win a significant number of votes," he said.
Hanura's key figures include former Army chief Gen. (ret) Subagio HS, former Navy chief Adm. (ret) Bernard Kent Sondakh and seasoned politicians such as former finance minister Fuad Bawazier.
Political observer J. Kristiadi expressed doubt the election would improve democracy, saying the political process had been compromised when the House reduced the electoral threshold from 3 percent to 2.5 percent following "backroom" dealing.
"The problem is not about the number of new parties, but is more about how these parties emerged. They are the result of political processes dominated by backroom deals," he said.
Earlier on Tuesday, several parties that failed to pass the KPU's verification process demanded to know the reason for their failure.
Among the parties was the Freedom Party, Labor Party, National Democratic Party of Devotion (PDKB) and the Indonesian Christian Party (Parkindo). An official said the KPU would cross-check the data to make sure no mistakes were made in the verification process.
"If we find significant mistakes in the data, it is possible for us to revise our decision," the official said.