Ridwan Max Sijabat, Jakarta – Despite maintaining good ties with most of his supporting parties, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will nonetheless face major political hurdles in seeking reelection in 2009, a political analyst says.
Eep Syaefullah Fatah, a lecturer at the University of Indonesia, said the President's chances of reelection depend greatly on his performance in the second leg of his presidency and on the quality and acceptability of his rivals in the 2009 presidential election.
"The second half of the administration will be a real political campaign for him to demonstrate to the people all his achievements following his government's dissatisfying performance in the first half," Eep said here Friday during a discussion on the recent Cabinet reshuffle.
"He will not be easily defeated if his rivals in the presidential election are Megawati Soekarnoputri, Amien Rais and other political figures whom he defeated in the 2004 presidential race."
Eep said SBY needs to work harder to address poverty, unemployment and several other problems his government has been unable to resolve in the past two and half years if he is to redeem the votes he received in the last presidential election.
By the end of last year, the number of families living under the poverty line reached 19.3 million, or 17.75 percent of Indonesia's 220 million people. The unemployment rate reached 11.5 percent, or 11.9 million people, of the 120-million-strong work force.
Yudhoyono's government has also been under fire for its failure to resolve several human rights abuse cases, including the 2004 Munir murder case.
"But as shown by recent surveys, SBY's popularity is expected to increase despite the fact his government will be effective for only one and a half years, as parties busy themselves preparing for the 2009 elections starting next year," Eep said.
The lecturer argued that the nine political parties, including Golkar and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), would consistently support the government until 2008. He warned, however, that there was still a slim possibility that Golkar and PKS could withdraw their support for the government in their own efforts to win the 2009 general election.
"PKS has nothing to lose if it pulls its ministers out of the Cabinet. And despite Vice President Jusuf Kalla's chairmanship of Golkar, the looming disappointment over the recent reshuffle and among anti-Kalla factions will likely prompt the party to pull its support from the government some time next year," he said.
Riding the wave of post-reshuffle criticism, Crescent Star Party (PBB) legislator Ali Mochtar Ngabalin said his party was disappointed with Yudhoyono, who removed the party's leading figure, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, from Cabinet and was considering pulling another PBB member, Forestry Minister M.S. Kaban.
Meanwhile, Priyo Budi Santoso, a member of Golkar's executive board, said his party was now stuck in SBY's trap and must support the government despite having only one party member – Andi Mattalata – recruited into Cabinet as justice and human rights minister, replacing Hamid Awaluddin.
"We will consequently support the government until 2009, although Golkar was only given one more seat in Cabinet," he said, adding that Golkar had expected to obtain at least six more Cabinet seats.