The first phase of the Aceh peace agreement ended pretty much on schedule before the turn of the year. The Indonesian Military (TNI) withdrew the last of its non-local troops. The Free Aceh Movement (GAM) handed over all its remaining fire arms and formally disbanded its military wing.
With the exception of the remaining local TNI troops, we could safely say that Aceh has been demilitarized. Kudos to both sides for seeing through the peace process. And congratulations to the independent Aceh Monitoring Mission for a job well done.
Having gone through so much for the past year or so, including the devastating tsunami amidst a raging 30-year civil war, the people of Aceh could not have asked for a better present to begin the New Year. They already face a difficult challenge as it is in rebuilding their shattered lives without the war. The ongoing peace process raises their hopes for 2006.
The demilitarization of Aceh, however, is half of the story of the peace agreement that GAM and the Indonesian government signed in Helsinki in August. The other half is the political concessions Indonesia has to give to GAM in return for the latter's decision to work for peace within the framework of the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia, commonly known by its Indonesian acronym NKRI. Although it has not publicly denounced its aspirations for an independent Aceh state, GAM's decision paved the way for the peace deal.
A lot of the concessions government negotiators gave in Helsinki are still subject to approval by lawmakers in the House of Representatives (DPR).
But they are doable and agreeable, for otherwise the government would not have given in to them. Even GAM's demand that the people of Aceh be allowed to form local political parties to contest national and local elections seems reasonable if we profess to be a democratic country.
Now, the ball is in Senayan's court; in the dome-shaped DPR building.
If the cool-to-lukewarm response one heard from Senayan around the time of the signing of the peace agreement was any indication, then the government could be in for a tough battle over the next few months. The road to peace in Aceh could come to a stumbling block unless the government plays its cards right.
Under the Helsinki agreement, the government must ensure that a new law on Aceh government should be in place by the end of March, thus allowing for local elections to choose the governor and regency chiefs to take place in April.
The Aceh provincial legislative council had already drafted a bill taking into account GAM demands in the Helsinki deal. The bill is now in the hands of the Ministry of Home Affairs in Jakarta, which appears to want to revise it before sending it to the House of Representatives.
House Speaker Agung Laksono has promised to give the bill priority so that it can be enacted in time as scheduled. But Agung and his Golkar party do not necessarily control the House, despite holding most of seats. A lot will depend on the political skills of Golkar, and particularly of their leader Jusuf Kalla, who is also vice president, whose initiative it was to begin the negotiations with GAM in 2004.
Those who understand Indonesian politics know that peace in Aceh is not most important thing on the minds of politicians and their political parties in Jakarta. Most are already looking at the 2009 elections, and the last thing parties outside the government coalition want is to allow President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono bask in the glory of bringing peace to Aceh. As important as peace is to Aceh and to the overall nation-building process, the dynamics of Senayan may dictate differently.
Many politicians from parties outside the government coalition have already denounced the Helsinki agreement as a sellout, as they consider it a danger to the future of Indonesia as a unitary state. They have many friends in the military and in media to mobilize support for their cause.
It does not take much to derail a peace train. All they need to do is delay the deliberations of the bill on Aceh government and the Helsinki agreement will be in tatters.
We have also seen their maneuvers in attempting to carve Aceh into three provinces as another way of botching the Helsinki deal. This is a classic divide-and-rule approach that has been applied with devastating effect in Papua, creating an even bigger mess than before. The move to carve up Aceh was carefully timed to coincide with the upcoming deliberations of the bill on Aceh government.
The real peace spoilers are here in Jakarta, and not in Aceh.
The challenge is for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to secure the support of all the factions, or at least the majority of factions, in the DPR to make sure that the law on Aceh government is enacted on time, and, where appropriate, incorporating the terms of the Helsinki agreement.
The price of failure is too high. It will irreparable hurt Indonesia's international reputation, it will ruin the Helsinki agreement, and it will create renewed uncertainty in Aceh.