Bill Guerin, Jakarta – As the United States rides its sudden wave of popularity in the world's most populous Muslim country, Indonesia, the secular government there has been handed a very hot political potato. The government itself, Americans, radical and mainstream Muslim groups, the Indonesian military, and separatist rebels are all engaged in a struggle to sway the allegiance of the living in the staunchly Islamic province of Aceh.

The contenders are generally seen to be giving their best shots to the immediate humanitarian mission. But the stakes, particularly for the government, are much higher than simply repairing the damage from the giant waves that hit a region that, until only three weeks ago, was a no-go war zone in effect under martial law and closed to Westerners.

Against all odds, the separatist rebels of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) are likely to be invited to the table in Jakarta to discuss ending their 29-year armed struggle for independence that has cost an estimated 15,000 lives. Should President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono pull off such an invitation – although a compromise is not yet in the cards – he certainly will have worked a miracle.

For the Americans, ironically, it is the presence of their military on the ground in Aceh, Indonesia's only official Islamic province, that is helping fuel pro-US sentiments. About 150 US marines onshore and more than 8,000 offshore are supporting a relief effort that has so far outstripped the Indonesian air force in terms of its number of support missions.

Yet the country's militant jihadi Islamist groups view these US troops through a lens of hate. In an effort to calm these tensions, the Indonesian government on Wednesday told foreign military forces to leave by the end of March and tightened controls over the movement of international aid workers. But despite Yudhoyono's assurances, militants are on the ground in Aceh, where they have previously been made unwelcome, branding their Muslim credentials and striving to gain moral ascendancy over the so-called "infidels". They have quickly drawn a line in the Aceh soil, warning foreigners not to cross it.

Speaking on behalf of Abu Bakar Ba'ashir, allegedly the spiritual leader of the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic group Jemaah Islamiah (JI), Fauzan Al Anshari said, "It's dangerous, this idea by Acehnese that US and Australian forces are their guardian angels – more popular than the TNI [Indonesian military]." Ba'ashir, currently on trial in Jakarta on terrorism charges, summed up his loathing for Americans in 2002 when he said, "I am a Muslim. They are infidels."

Captain Larry Burt, who commands the air wing aboard the command ship USS Abraham Lincoln from which US military crews are ferrying food, water and medicine to the province, has been widely quoted as saying, "I don't see an end to this for a long, long time.". However, Anshari has warned that if "they" establish a permanent base there, it will lead to trouble. "We are suspicious of the presence of foreign soldiers and their show of force," said Anshari, who leads the militant Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia group.

It had been fondly imagined that the militants would be smart enough not to portray foreign troops as invaders, but Anshari quoted Ba'ashir as saying he feared that the presence of Australian and US troops in Aceh was like that of "colonial invaders".

The Americans have had to delay a planned deployment of 1,000 marines to remote Meulaboh, a town almost totally devastated and where half of its former population were killed in the disaster. The marines were to help provide water-purification services, reconstruct power lines, restore hospitals, repair roads and rebuild bridges in the town but were prevented because they are on board the multi-purpose amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard and, because navy landing craft would be used to take them ashore, their arrival might seem like an invasion.

The Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), meanwhile, has suggested that Australians helping with the relief effort could somehow corrupt the local culture. FPI leader Habib Rizeq Shihab has warned that when the US and its allies give aid, they have particular interests.

There is no love lost between the separatist rebels and the radicals. In a press release on Sunday the PNA/ASNLF, the so-called government of Aceh in exile, deplored the arrival in Aceh of members of the "thuggish" FPI, which it describes as being made up of street hoodlums and minor criminals. The group was established as a militia by TNI generals on August 17, 1998, to act as a vanguard against Indonesia's pro-democracy activists.

In the wake of the tsunami, the Indonesian military and GAM declared a notional ceasefire but have since reported casualties in clashes and have accused each other of using the disaster as a pretext for a renewed offensive. Neither claim has been independently verified. The distrust between the two is hindering international relief efforts. The TNI claims that the rebels are disrupting aid efforts by infiltrating refugee camps, impersonating soldiers and extorting and stealing supplies from convoys. The TNI says only defensive operations against GAM are being conducted so that GAM cannot interrupt the relief effort.

Yet even human-rights organizations concede that troops have shown dedication and compassion in addressing the immediate needs of the survivors and been heavily involved in the thankless task of collecting and burying bodies. Officials estimate that the disaster killed about 500 troops there.

Yet the radicals are also putting their best foot forward in providing humanitarian assistance. Most were flown to Aceh in US-built Hercules C-130 troop and cargo carriers from the Indonesian air force fleet. Only seven can fly because of a US embargo on spare parts.

Asked in the provincial capital, Banda Aceh, last week if it was true that a deal had been struck over parts, Secretary of State Colin Powell stuttered, "Well, I can't ... I can't get too far into this because we're still working it out. But the nature of the humanitarian crisis is so great, and we're doing it in a way that still puts controls on the remaining aircraft. Only a few additional aircraft will be made serviceable as a result of the arrangements I'm working on now, maybe five more." So much for the US commitment, which Powell has conceded is meant to capture the hearts and minds of Muslims.

Though there have not yet been reports of significant aid disruptions, aid workers, journalists and the local population are concerned about travel restrictions, security costs, disrupted supply lines, and even the deliberate withholding of aid. This first worry was enhanced when the government announced on Thursday that foreign aid workers will have to take military escorts to areas of Aceh deemed unsafe. Foreign aid workers and journalists also could be expelled if they don't report their movements outside the provincial capital, officials have said. The disaster-mitigation task force based in Banda Aceh has recorded at least 1,125 foreign relief workers and 1,307 soldiers deployed in the province.

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, when seeing the devastation of Meulaboh for himself, was moved to say, "Although we were powerless to stop the tsunami, together we do have the power to stop those next waves." But while the giant waves off Aceh may have brought in their wake a chance to resolve the long-running conflict in the province, it seems far too soon for optimism. Although GAM appears to be making the right noises offstage, the TNI would be incensed if the separatists were to survive by default the long battle to crush them with force, and it is likely to go the last mile to prevent a diplomatic solution. GAM never makes a public comment on its troop strengths, but the TNI estimates there are only some 2,500 rebels left.

Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said in London on Monday that a "gentlemen's agreement" had been struck with the rebels. Claiming he sensed "optimism that both sides are interested for reconciliation", the minister said the rebels had agreed not to disrupt the flow of aid.

Alwi Shihab, coordinating minister for people's welfare and the overall chief of relief efforts in Aceh, called the current situation a "unique opportunity" for the government to solve issues in Aceh and said the government was communicating indirectly with the rebels through a group of Muslim religious leaders and scholars.

"We do hope they will join efforts with us to rebuild Aceh," said Shihab. "The GAM side will not be easy to convince. I hope [the intermediaries] will be able to convince them." Shihab added that the religious leaders were trying to convince the rebels that Aceh should be peaceful and prosperous. The intermediaries will certainly not be foreign, he said.

This week President Yudhoyono met ambassadors from the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and Libya to sound them out on the conflict but reiterated that it would be a matter for Indonesia to resolve.

Yet short of inviting GAM to take part in the political process, Jakarta has little to offer the remaining separatists. GAM wants independence and has no interest in autonomy. Independence as an alternative to autonomy is not an option, and never will be.

There is a heavy price to pay for leaving the Indonesian republic. Tiny East Timor, which officially became an independent state separate from Indonesia in 2002, is now one of the poorest nations on the planet, having ceded control over Timor Sea oil and gas reserves to Australia. Indonesia's huge natural-gas fields, on the other hand, are in Aceh, and the vast revenues could be used to up the ante at the negotiating table if a special autonomy is offered.

As US-based Human Rights Watch points out, failure to ensure the proper use of aid could quickly attenuate international goodwill and, worse still, spark Acehnese anger against Jakarta, which in turn could lead to growing support for GAM.

Yudhoyono clearly has his work cut out for him. At the same time, he will need to keep a lid on the more radical and extreme leaders who, if aid wasn't coming through, would say that the West doesn't care and just exploits Muslims to keep them poor.

Indonesia has been identified as the main recruiting ground for frontline JI cadres and future leaders. The radical leaders appear able consistently to intimidate all levels of officialdom. But although the president will face challenges from both major opposition parties for whatever he does, most observers believe that he may still be able to move effectively against the radicals, given the overwhelming mandate he has from voters.

The ugly specter of the radicals in Aceh – perhaps mirroring their activity elsewhere in Indonesia, where they have not only provoked sectarian violence but also developed a network of local cells to plan and carry out direct acts of terrorism – should certainly be something for him to focus on.

[Bill Guerin, a Jakarta correspondent for Asia Times Online since 2000, has worked in Indonesia for 19 years in journalism and editorial positions. He has been published by the BBC on East Timor and specializes in business/economic and political analysis in Indonesia.]