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Yudhoyono: The master and commander

Source
Reuters - December 27, 2004

Yang Razali Kassim – Indonesia's new President, Dr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, has just demonstrated that while he may be new in his job, he is a political leader not to be trifled with. Under siege from a hostile Parliament controlled by Golkar and its allies since he assumed power in October, Dr Yudhoyono has been facing the prospect of leading a government that has little support from the legislature.

But rather than go through the next five years in weakness and uncertainty, President Yudhoyono and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla hatched a daring plot: They would launch an offensive to break the primary source of opposition to the administration by contesting the chairmanship of Golkar. The strategic goal was to take over the Golkar leadership and turn the party around from an opponent into an ally. This would be done by deploying Mr Jusuf, who remains an influential Golkar member despite having been nominated for the vice-presidency by Dr Yudhoyono's Democrat Party (PD).

At the Golkar party elections in Bali, on Dec 19, the strategy was put to devastating effect. In an early morning vote, incumbent chairman Akbar Tandjung was defeated by Mr Jusuf with a margin that was too wide to be disputed – 323 votes to 156. A key factor in Mr Jusuf's favour was the feeling of party leaders who were also governors and heads of regencies. Still deeply influenced by the culture of the ruling class, they were averse to voting against the country's vice-president.

With that dramatic victory, the Yudhoyono phase of the post-Suharto era entered a more stable and, perhaps, dynamic period.

One immediate effect of Mr Jusuf's emergence as Golkar leader will be to bring much-needed stability to the new administration. Prior to this, the opposition had been so strong that it virtually brought the Yudhoyono-Jusuf administration's reform agenda to a standstill. Golkar had been instrumental in blocking the new administration's forward march through a formidable coalition with the second largest party, former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (PDI-P), and a handful of smaller parties.

On paper, the Koalisi Kebangsaan, or National Coalition, vowed to play the role of a constructive balancer to the Yudhoyono-Jusuf administration. But in reality, it was also an obstructionist oppositionist bloc. Collectively, it controlled at least 275 of the 550 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) and had shown its capacity to bring the government to its knees.

To counter this Golkar-led bloc, the Yudhoyono-Jusuf administration formed its own Koalisi Kerakyatan or People's Coalition comprising Dr Yudhoyono's PD, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Peace and Prosperity Party (PKS), the United Development Party (PPP) and an alliance of smaller parties called the Democratic Pioneer Star faction (BPD). But this coalition could marshall only 233 seats, not enough to outvote the National Coalition.

The Yudhoyono-Jusuf administration had two choices to break out of the worrisome gridlock. It could either accept its fate as a weak government and muddle along until its term is over, risking an erosion in popularity. Or it could swing over members of the National Coalition to its side.

The team chose the more long-term solution: Capturing the Golkar leadership.

Mr Akbar knew he would be a target. He has been blamed for many of Golkar's ills since the party's candidate, retired general Wiranto, failed to win the presidential election. 'SBY does not have enough support in Parliament. He needs another party to strengthen the support for his government. So he needs to topple me and take over the chairmanship,' Mr Akbar said in a telephone interview.

So, the capture of the Golkar chairmanship was as much an act of desperation as it was a brilliant strategy on the part of the administration.

With Golkar in the hands of pro-Yudhoyono leaders, it is only logical to expect Mr Jusuf to pull the party out of the National Coalition, the idea being to weaken, if not dismantle, the opposition.

The balance of power in the DPR will now shift in favour of the People's Coalition, transforming it from a minority alliance into a majority juggernaut supportive of the administration. And with that, Dr Yudhoyono will control both the executive and the legislative arms of government – a feat which was enjoyed by only former president Suharto.

The Golkar leadership capture is, therefore, one of the most significant developments in Indonesian politics since the fall of Mr Suharto. There was no precedent of a smaller party engineering a leadership coup of a larger party to remove hostility to itself.

The successful takeover of Golkar means that Dr Yudhoyono has also transformed himself from a weak leader into a strong one, with Golkar as one of his new pillars of strength. With that, Golkar will return to its Suharto-era status as a ruling group.

The question is whether the other parties will be happy with a rubber-stamping Parliament, as was the case during Mr Suharto's New Order. This may cause more shifts and realignments in the power configuration in the DPR.

But with the DPR tamed, the Yudhoyono-Jusuf administration will now be able to focus on delivering its electoral promises of fighting corruption, creating jobs and countering terrorism. This more stable phase will be good for Indonesia as it needs a long period of calmness to improve the economy. If this enhances his position and popularity, Dr Yudhoyono will have a better chance of winning a second term in 2009.

In the wake of his victory, some analysts have raised doubts whether Mr Jusuf will stick with Dr Yudhoyono in 2009, or become his new rival for the presidency, given his strong position as chairman of the largest political party.

This issue may have been overblown, as the new Golkar chief is unlikely to have such an ambition, given his Sulawesi background. Although there has been one non-Javanese president before, when Mr B.J Habibie succeeded Mr Suharto in 1998, Mr Jusuf holds the view that the presidency is best left in the hands of a popular Javanese leader like Dr Yudhoyono.

So, unless there is a mindset change among the people, and Mr Jusuf abandons his policy of being a loyal deputy, the Yudhoyono-Jusuf partnership will remain unbeatable come the 2009 presidential election – when many old players would have gone from the scene.

The writer, a former Business Times correspondent, is with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are his own.

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