Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – Indonesia's first direct presidential election has ended with a Bambang and a whimper. Surveys of results announced at the more than 500,000 polling stations give former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono more than 60% of the vote in Monday's runoff election against President Megawati Sukarnoputri. Official results won't be released until early next month.
After vigorous campaigns for legislative elections in April and the first round of presidential voting in July, Monday's ballot was a relatively restrained affair. Rules designed to minimize the chance of clashes between supporters in the head-to-head final election stage restricted the official campaign period to three days (with a three-day cooling-off period before the vote) and limited the candidates to indoor rallies. Anecdotal evidence suggests Monday's turnout fell below the 78% average for this year's earlier votes.
Ending with a whimper wasn't only the result of subdued appeals to tired voters. The two candidates offered little to choose from on the issues. In Bali, a Megawati stronghold that broke into riots when a backroom deal denied her the presidency in 1999 and where some disappointed supporters burned a tire on Monday, one voter shrugged: "Tomorrow SBY [Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono], or maybe Mega, but it's all the same." Megawati and Yudhoyono, her security minister until March, led an administration that delivered a tepid economy, rampant corruption and flagging reform, as the world's largest predominantly Muslim nation became a frequent target for anti-Western terrorists. Without a chance for a significant change in policies, voters opted for a change in tone.
Negative voting
Yudhoyono's unofficial victory indicates that voters opted for the hope of change and a stronger leader. "It's time for a change. Maybe things won't get better, but I don't think they'll get worse," another voter said. "Megawati hasn't done enough to deserve another five years."
That point highlights one key element of Yudhoyono's appeal: he's not Megawati. Despite his high post in Megawati's administration, Yudhoyono avoided blame for its mistakes, just as he's avoided the taints of corruption, human-rights abuses and authoritarianism common among Suharto-era generals. Yudhoyono seems to have a high Teflon content that the presidency will test severely.
Voters ignored a rash of rumors spread by mobile-phone text messaging that Yudhoyono had a Christian wife and was an agent for the US Central Intelligence Agency. Those charges underscored his potential vulnerability as a foreign tool: Yudhoyono was the favored candidate of Jakarta's diplomatic community and foreign investors; he attended a military college in the United States; and he led a United Nations force in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But those international links didn't produce a nationalist backlash among voters. Yudhoyono's lead after a peaceful vote has produced business-community optimism, a stronger rupiah and a stock-market bounce. But the joy won't last without key reforms, starting with a real war on corruption, that Yudhoyono didn't pursue as a top minister.
Electing Yudhoyono means voters have conquered lingering fears about putting a military figure back in the presidency just six years after the end of former general Suharto's repressive regime. Additionally, Yudhoyono's triumph underlines the diminished power of established political parties to influence voters in free and fair elections, particularly without a galvanizing issue.
To the consternation of many Western analysts and reporters, terrorism was not the central issue of the campaign, despite the 2002 Bali bombings, last year's blast at the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta, and the Australian Embassy attack two weeks ago. Both candidates agreed terrorism was a problem requiring presidential attention, and analysts acknowledge that police are doing their best to hunt down the perpetrators. But since both candidates bear responsibility for the bombings on their joint watch, there wasn't much room for them to attack their opponent's record on terrorism, or most other issues.
Change from within
Instead, the voting hinged on personalities. Yudhoyono projected a resolute image of strong leadership, building on his military background and public platform as Megawati's security chief. His superbly orchestrated, highly publicized exit from Megawati's cabinet in March added the patina of an outsider, even though Yudhoyono's influential roles date back to former president Suharto's military regime.
After his cabinet departure, Yudhoyono formed his own political group, Partai Demokrasi, which won 7.5% in April's legislative vote, good for fifth place in an election where all previously established parties lost support. He finished on top in the first round of presidential voting, with 33.5% in a five-candidate field. Pre-election polls suggested he might win the majority required for a first-round victory, but Yudhoyono's first-place finish reinforced the impression of strong grassroots support.
Megawati, meanwhile, failed to overcome her image as indecisive, arrogant, detached and more interested in power than policy. With the help of media consultants, she tried to recapture the reformasi leader aura that won her Parti Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P) the biggest legislative bloc five years ago. But that strategy often meant running against her record as president.
Parties over?
While trying to soften her image and reconnect with the masses, Megawati's campaign in this final round mainly focused on old-style politics. She formed electoral alliances with established political parties, including Golkar, Suharto's former ruling party, an association that undermined her reformist credentials. Perhaps more important, the April and July elections demonstrated that parties could no longer guarantee votes.
Golkar's endorsement of Megawati has wide implications for the new president and legislature. Many Golkar veterans favored ex-military man Yudhoyono and his running mate Jusuf Kalla, a leading Golkar reformer until he was expelled from the party last week. Some Golkar chapters resisted leadership pressure to campaign for Megawati, and backing a loser won't strengthen the hand of party chairman Akbar Tanjung. Tanjung says Golkar, with 128 of the 550 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR), will sit in opposition to Yudhoyono at the head of an alliance with PDI-P and five other parties controlling 300 DPR seats. (Yudhoyono's party and its allies have fewer than 100 seats.) However, the rift over the presidential endorsement – preceded by Golkar's failure to get its candidate into the runoff – may undermine the party's position and lead to the demise of this Suharto-era relic. A Golkar split could give Yudhoyono an opening to forge his own legislative majority, or it could put even more greedy factions around the table when the real challenge of governing begins. What promises to be a long-running sinetron (soap opera) starts on October 1, when the legislative session begins, weeks ahead of the presidential inauguration.
In Suharto's time, death tolls were routinely in the dozens during rigged election campaigns. This year's democratic marathon was free, fair and virtually without violence. That may be its greatest historic significance. Indonesia's voters have demonstrated they can handle democracy. If things don't get better, the blame should fall not on the people or the process but squarely on the politicians.
[Gary LaMoshi, a longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, has also contributed to Slate and Salon.com. He's worked as a broadcast producer and as a print writer and editor in the United States and Asia. He moved to Hong Kong in 1995 and now splits his time between there and Indonesia.]