Richel Langit, Jakarta – Golkar Party chairman Akbar Tanjung is not contesting the September 20 election, nor is he a member of either political party whose candidates advanced to the second round of the presidential election. But when compared with presidential candidates Megawati Sukarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of the Democratic Party, Tanjung is obviously the busiest in the run-up to the election run-off. Since mid-August, Tanjung and other Golkar heavyweights have been visiting party leaders and members across the country, instructing them to throw their support behind incumbent President Megawati, who is still trailing Yudhoyono, a retired four-star army general, just two weeks before voting day. (Late last month Tanjung warned party officials they would face sanctions, including expulsion, if they do not vote for Megawati.)
Tanjung's hard work seems to be paying off. According to the latest surveys, Megawati's popularity rose to around 30% in late August, compared with 26% in the first round of presidential elections on July 5. Yudhoyono's popularity, meanwhile, has slipped to around 60% in the same period, down from 68% in late July. With only two weeks to go, political pundits are now predicting a tight competition between Megawati and Yudhoyono in the election.
"Megawati's chance of winning is greater, while Yudhoyono's camp would have to work hard to maintain its lead," Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated researcher Sukardi Rinakit a told a press conference early last week. The Jakarta-based institution revealed that 41.3% of survey respondents would vote for Yudhoyono, while 34.68% would opt for Megawati.
After looking at how Tanjung and other Golkar leaders are going out of their way to support Megawati in the upcoming election, suspicions are rife that PDI-P and Golkar entered into "dirty" horse-trading ahead of the election.
Indeed, Golkar, which won the April 5 legislative election, signed onto a loose coalition dubbed the "Nationhood Coalition" with PDI-P, the Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP) and the Christian-oriented Prosperous Peace Party (PDS) on August 19, to support Megawati. They also agreed to join hands in the DPR, where the four parties have a total of 307 seats out of the 550-seat House. Details of the deal, however, have not been disclosed.
Golkar leaders who are against the so-called Nationhood Coalition have suggested that Megawati promised to give Golkar at least eight seats in her cabinet ministry in order to win the party's backing. Both PDI-P and Golkar have neither confirmed nor denied the allegation.
A closer look at Tanjung's political ambitions and rifts within Golkar, however, suggests that the House speaker is fighting for his own political survival rather than Megawati's. More than that, he and other party leaders are also battling to preserve Golkar, the political machinery of former dictator Suharto for more than three decades.
After failing to secure the party's endorsement in Golkar's presidential convention last May, apparently due to money politics, Tanjung has been setting his sights on the 2009 presidential election. Yet he can pursue his political ambition only if he remains Golkar chairman and the party remains intact.
As it stands now, Tanjung, who has successfully consolidated Golkar in the past five years and shaken off waves of protests by pro-democracy activists and students, is losing his grip on the party. Some party leaders have accused Tanjung of half-heartedly supporting Wiranto, Golkar's presidential candidate in the July 5 election. Some Golkar leaders have also publicly pledged to support Yudhoyono's running mate Jusuf Kalla, also a Golkar leader.
A victory by the Yudhoyono-Kalla team in the upcoming election would likely encourage party members to move over to Yudhoyono's Democratic Party or to rally behind Kalla against Tanjung. Using the lure of power and money, Kalla would easily mobilize Golkar leaders at the provincial and regency levels to revolt against Tanjung, a move that would not only dash Tanjung's presidential dream but also threaten party disintegration.
The only way for Tanjung to keep his presidential dream alive is to defeat the Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket. That explains why the Golkar chairman and other party heavyweights have been touring the country to mobilize support for Megawati. Following the declaration of the Nationhood Coalition, the four parties held a coordination meeting, with Tanjung as the coordinator. He and other leaders have threatened to expel party members who do not support Golkar's decision to back Megawati. They also threatened to oust Kalla.
Yudhoyono has started to feel the pinch. While he and running mate Kalla still top all surveys on popular votes, their popularity is diminishing. And Yudhoyono, who has declined to form a coalition with other political parties ahead of the election, appears to be at a loss on how to fend off Tanjung's political guerrilla, thanks to his well-maintained political machinery.
Thus, it is not an exaggeration to say that the September 20 election is not a showdown between incumbent Megawati and her former coordinating minister for political and security affairs, Yudhoyono, but between the Golkar chairman and the former four-star army general.
Megawati knows all too well that Tanjung needs her victory. While she has made frequent visits to Indonesia's rural regions, where she consistently has handed out donations to the country's poor, she appears to be less enthusiastic in mobilizing her political machine. Unlike Golkar, Megawati's PDI-P has refrained itself from publicly mobilizing its supporters.
A Megawati victory would allow Tanjung and his Golkar Party to have access to the government. A source close to Tanjung said that over the next five years the Golkar chairman just wants to be an adviser to the president and to lead the party to ensure that its political machinery is working well in time for the 2009 election. And since Golkar has signed an agreement to form a loose coalition with PDI-P, PPP and PDS up until that time, Tanjung would be certain of support from the three parties in 2009.
Richel Langit is a freelance journalist based in Jakarta and covering topics including education, health, the environment and politics. She worked as a reporter for The Manila Times in the Philippines for five years before moving to Jakarta in 1999.