Phar Kim Beng – Indonesia is a country renowned for its far-flung geography and cultural complexities. With 13,000 islands to its name, it cannot claim anything less. Equally complex is the elaborate nature of the country's electoral system, which is only gradually being simplified.

In Indonesia's first nod toward free elections in 1999, a process that had been stillborn since 1955, more than 300 political parties registered for the first parliamentary election in the post-Suharto order. However, the General Elections Commission (KPU), on the basis of various criteria, had to reduce the number of parties to 48.

But while the democratization process in Indonesia has been confusing, it is nevertheless something that Indonesians have taken in stride. Now, as voters gear up for the final round of Indonesia's first direct presidential election next month, many are showing they are capable of making their own choice on who should be president.

The September 20 runoff has been reduced to a two-way contest between incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri and her former security minister, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The election process has come a long way since the April 5 parliamentary elections, which saw the number of political parties cut in half from the 48 that ran in 1999. This year only 24 political parties were eligible to compete for the 550 parliamentary seats, of which Golkar received 128 seats and Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) won 109 seats. Although four other parties were able to receive at least 5% of the total votes, allowing them to name their respective candidates to the presidential election in July, they have since been taken out of the race.

But if Indonesia's national election appears to be a prolonged process of attrition, where parties and candidates are progressively winnowed by the electoral forces at play, it is amazing that Susilo and his party have even come this far. That's because it's not easy to set up a new political party in the first place. Article 3 of the Law Concerning Political Parties sets stiff conditions for new parties, for instance.

John Roberts, an independent Indonesian specialist, said, "While a party is only required to have 50 citizens as members, the article stipulates that the party must have an executive board in at least half of the nation's 30 provinces, in at least 50% of the regions [kabupaten] in each province, and in at least 25% of the local areas [kecamatan] within each region."

This provision clearly favors the existing parties, which had their party machines established during the Suharto period, or ruling-class factions that have the funding needed to meet these conditions.

Still, buoyed by his reputation as a clean and competent minister of security, one invariably tough on Jemaah Islamiya, the group that perpetrated the Bali bombings on October 12, 2002, Susilo was able to garner more than 36 million votes in the first round of the presidential election in July, claiming roughly 33.56% of the total votes, but still failing to get the additional 17% needed to be declared an outright winner.

In turn, President Megawati received 29 million votes, or 26.24% of the total ballots. Wiranto, who was Golkar's candidate, came in third with nearly 24 million votes.

While the prospect of Susilo upstaging Megawati is real, due not least to a tidal wave of support for his promise to make Indonesia a country free from corruption, the latter has gained the endorsement of Golkar to stem the tide. In exchange, Megawati has agreed to appoint up to eight ministers from Golkar into a cabinet of 30 in the event of her successful re-election.

This gambit by Megawati, however, by no means ensures her return to office for another five-year term. Research has shown that up to 86% of Golkar supporters will likely vote for Susilo anyway in the impending second round run-off, compared with only 9% for Megawati – a sign that voters are thinking independently.

Opinion polls also suggest that voters are more likely to base their vote on candidates' policies rather than their politics, with a majority of Indonesians concerned with high-level corruption first, followed by territorial integrity, economic growth and employment. A marriage of Golkar and PDI-P may not articulate the concerns of the average Indonesian voter.

It is even doubtful whether card-carrying members of Golkar wanted the alliance in the fist place. Akbar Tanjung, Golkar's chairman, conceded as much when he explained that the coalition with PDI-P was formed "due to the preference of party leaders in the regions and provinces".

Another reason for Golkar's electoral tie-up with Megawati was the continued refusal by Susilo and his vice-presidential candidate, Jusuf Kalla, a Muslim businessman from Sulawesi, to engage in any political horse-trading.

Thus, the endorsement on August 15 of Megawati by Golkar, while ideal on paper, may not amount to much, as the 24 million voters who supported Wiranto in the first round may not necessarily accept Megawati as their preferred choice in the second one, despite her repeated attempts to project herself as the "Mother of Indonesia."

If anything, Megawati is fast losing her credibility as a reformist president. Rather than define her reformist platforms, the alliance with Golkar has defiled her. This is because Golkar served as Suharto's political machine during his 32-year reign and is still associated with abuses of that era.

Susilo, together with Jusuf, who is also known for his no-nonsense, action-oriented approach to politics, have both welcomed Megawati's move to reach out to Golkar because it could clearly set them apart as Indonesia's "true" reformist candidates.

Yet even if Susilo claims presidential victory, he will still have a long way to go before he can weed out corruption, or deal immediately with some pressing issues.

Golkar and PDI-P together now control 237 seats in the parliament. So regardless of who wins, Megawati and Akbar Tanjung would remain the "king-maker" in parliament. A coalition of PDI-P and Golkar already creates a formidable force, even without the presidency.

Susilo is aware of the political dynamics in Indonesia and has said he is open to compromise after September 20. In choosing Jusuf, a former Golkar party leader, as his running mate, Susilo is clearly sending a signal that he is neither totally against Golkar's interest nor that of other Muslim quarters in areas other than Java.

As such, while Megawati and Susilo seem on the surface to be poles apart, with the former eager to cut a deal with Golkar while the latter is almost indifferent, there is no denying that future Indonesian reforms could only be carried out by all sides with more political coalition-building rather than less. That's because key parties and individuals remain too weak to reign alone.

Parties such as PDI-P are almost desperate for coalitions because of their fast-waning support. During the April election, for instance, PDI-P votes drastically dropped from 34% in 1999 to a mere 19%. Whether or not this marks the secular decline of PDI-P depends largely on the ability of Megawati to exercise effective leadership, either as a president or future parliamentary canvasser.

On the other hand, although Golkar is now the leading party in parliament, its total popular votes in Java, traditionally the heartland of Indonesian politics, declined from 22% to 21%. Since Java comprises 60% of Indonesia's total population of 215 million, the decline does not augur well for Golkar's future.

Although attempts to corral bloc votes, both within parliament and without, will always be a perpetual temptation for party leaders to create various coalitions, the electorate will not necessarily be impressed with such gestures.

Research by Paige Johnson Tan, an Indonesian specialist at the University of North Carolina, for instance, has shown that there is a "general aversion" to the present party system among Indonesians. Instead, Indonesians prefer a strong, capable and clean leader, qualities Susilo claims to have.

Yet the Indonesian political system is unable to produce a "strong" president at this stage because the country's political system is a hybrid between a presidential and a parliamentary system. Although the president can rule by decree, the legislature can also nullify these decrees in the next session of the parliament. The gridlock, though intentional, is likely to make Indonesians become less patient with the process of democratization, even as they seek to elect a strong president to guide it.