Former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is still favourite to win Indonesia's presidential election run-off in September but the race will be close, analysts say.
On Monday Yudhoyono was officially declared winner of the first round with 33.6 percent of the vote, compared to 26.6 percent for incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri. Only the top two of the five candidates in the July 5 poll qualify for the run-off on September 20.
"The latest survey shows Yudhoyono is more popular than Megawati but a lot can happen in the coming two months," said political analyst Salim Said. "I have a feeling there will be a fierce battle between the two candidates." Said said Megawati could capitalise on her incumbency by making use of official activities to win more support, and also exploit public antipathy to militarism. The government announced a special bonus for civil servants before legislative elections in April.
But Megawati's party still suffered a 40 percent drop in support, with millions of voters disgruntled over lacklustre growth, rising prices, massive unemployment and continuing widespread corruption.
The taciturn and aloof-seeming Megawati waged a more energetic campaign to save her presidency. The gap between her and Yudhoyono, her former security minister, was much narrower than opinion polls had predicted.
Mochtar Pabotinggi, a political researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, said the outcome of the second round would be determined by swing voters. "Megawati's support has not increased. But swing voters could reach 50 percent of the registered voters. If we discount the swing voters Yudhoyono will win," he said.
Analysts say support from large parties for either candidate will probably not influence an increasingly independent-minded electorate. But they say such support will be needed later to create a stable government.
Yudhoyono has said he is reluctant vigorously to seek coalition partners because he does not want to be seen by supporters as engaging in horse-trading. Analysts say his stance shows he is confident of winning the election even without endorsement from large groups such as Golkar and the National Awakening Party (PKB). Golkar's candidate Wiranto, who was also backed by the PKB, came third and was eliminated from the race.
Bachtiar Effendi of the University of Indonesia said the two contenders would fight hard to win over supporters of the three losing candidates.
"Those voters will have to decide whether the country will be better off under Megawati. Her government may be sluggish but there is progress. Or maybe they want Yudhoyono, who promises change but what kind of change is not certain," Effendi said.
But Pabotinggi predicted that many who voted for the disqualified candidates would abstain in the second round. "They don't see the lesser of two evils. They think both candidates are equally evil." Pabotinggi said Megawati also favours militarism, as shown in a draft law on the military currently being debated. Critics see it as an attempt to revive the military's leading role in politics. "It is a choice of civilian militarism or military militarism," he said.
Yudhoyono's critics accuse him of involvement in a military-backed raid on Megawati's party headquarters in 1996 when she was an opposition leader. The attack, allegedly ordered by then-president Suharto, led to riots which left five people dead. Yudhoyono has denied prior knowledge of the operation.
Police recently revived an investigation into the case, prompting accusations the move was linked to the election. Pabotinggi warned that over-exploitation of the issue could backfire on Megawati and benefit Yudhoyono because he would be seen as a victim of a dirty campaign.