Wimar Witoelar, Jakarta – If the trend emerging from the vote tally continues, in two months time we shall have to choose between Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Soekarnoputri.

That will be difficult, quite like the proverbial choice between a rock and a hard place. In this hasty world, when people want to look at complex issues like accounting or computer programming, they can run to a good bookstore and find An Idiot's Guide to ... just about anything.

I am sure no one reading this is an idiot, but sometimes I feel like one. So here, then, is "an idiot's guide to the election", complete with numbers.

Susilo has declined from a polled high of 45 percent to a currently estimated 34 percent. He did not reach the 50 percent mark and maybe in the final round will still not pass it, making him an early-round favorite who got beaten in a runoff upset.

These are all "ifs" of course, since he still remains the favorite as overall winner. There are several reasons for these reservations about Susilo's chances:

1. The sympathy factor is receding. Susilo zoomed to popularity on the wave of public sympathy for his perceived ill-treatment by President Megawati and her husband. Now things have turned around. There is sympathy for the constantly denigrated Megawati while Susilo is flying high, looking aloof, not saying anything and looking quite smug.

2. His bandwagon has been leaped upon by New Order and military types, while known reformers and activists have avoided him. He is still the choice of the urban middle class and moderates, and certainly the international community, but Susilo would be a more compelling choice if he could present himself as the hope of the future rather than as a comforter for the status quo.

3. Susilo is basically a decent person and presents a clean image. However, more people now realize he is ex-military, a top general in the Soeharto government. Since Wiranto joined the race, people started to fear that we might be headed back to the bad old days with the military controlling the country. Susilo gives little comfort against that possibility. It would help if he were able to attract more inspiring people. And stopped acting like a New Order apparatchik, especially. It was frightening to see the television coverage of the birthday party where he and his family wore batik costumes, exactly as in Soeharto times. A nice general as president? Djvu 1966. And this time Golkar would not have to be invented from scratch.

At present, Megawati is up from low estimates to a current level that is hovering around 26 percent, higher than her party's percentage. Obviously, she is not to be dismissed, and the reasons are:

1. The very denigration she has suffered has created a backlash sympathy factor. When she failed to meet the three-minute limitation in her speech during the television debate, the moderator sternly reprimanded her. Many reacted with sympathy for "the nice lady who was trying to be a good speaker".

2. Her legendary, simplistic public appearance does not look too bad now when compared with that of rivals who have even less content than she.

3. While Megawati still does not inspire people who think, at least she does not evoke fear of hard-line policies the way her military rivals give the public cold feet.

4, People are still doubtful of her ability to lead an effective government, but irritation at her nonperformance reached its peak some time ago and now the backswing is giving her momentum, especially if she keeps getting good advice to improve and keeps her liabilities out of the public eye.

5. She has escaped miraculously from rejection so far because none of her rivals had the sense to attack her government's record. The first round of the campaign had an eerie atmosphere of clubby togetherness. It was as if everybody promised not to attack each other in return for favors later on. Now, in the final round of the campaign, there is little need to worry about her government record since Susilo and Kalla represented substantial parts of the government, and are equally responsible for the government's nonperformance.

What this newspaper has said is true – that Susilo faces an uphill campaign. And Megawati has escaped the worst. As both candidates have less than 40 percent, the determining factor will be the coalitions that are constructed around the candidates in the next two months. This is quite complicated. But in this "idiot's guide", what is the prediction?

1. Susilo and Mega to go into the final round, with the margin between them reducing. The decisive factor will be whether antimilitary sentiments are aroused.

2. Susilo is favored by the social middle class and business people who do not have a strong urge for reform, rather, prefer a large measure of the status quo to continue. But cold feet and memories of the New Order might make people opt for Megawati who, in computer parlance, is a "known problem". No reformer by any stretch of the imagination, she could still be forced into taking positive steps.

For the public at large, neither candidate represents hope for improvement. The only and real hope lies in the strengthening of civil society and the emergence of new leaders.

It does not really matter too much who becomes president. The really good news is that we are showing to all nations the largest, most direct, most peaceful election in the history of the world. If that is maintained, the real winners are the people. The writer is founder of InterMatrix Communications. He can be reached at wimar@perspektif.net